- In the first seven months of this year, more than 1 million mortgage loans worth 3.1 trillion rubles were issued in Russia. Is there now an understanding of what volume of mortgage issuance we can reach based on the results of the whole 2021?
- This year we have adjusted the preferential mortgage program at 6.5% per annum.
This was necessary because, against the backdrop of the initiative, housing prices rose noticeably, especially in cities such as Moscow and St. Petersburg.
At the same time, changes were made to the Family Mortgage program, which made it possible to maintain preferential terms for a number of citizens.
Such a transformation will simultaneously stabilize prices in regions where apartments were becoming more expensive, and will leave the population with the opportunity to get a loan on favorable terms.
Under these conditions, we expect demand to return to normal soon.
In turn, the volume of mortgage issuance, according to our estimates, this year will be approximately at the same level as in 2020.
That is, 1.7-1.8 million loans can be issued for a total of 4.9-5 trillion rubles.
- The preferential mortgage program, which you have already mentioned, was extended until July 1, 2022. Should we expect that the initiative will become a permanent measure to support the population and the construction business?
- The program will function until we return to the normal inflation situation.
That is, inflation should return to the target level of 4%.
Then the initiative can be revised.
Vitaly Mutko about the preferential mortgage program
In general, I would like to note that the state should deal with systemic support measures.
We see that families received serious help in the form of preferential mortgages at 6% per annum at the birth of their first child.
Moreover, after the birth of the third child, the family can receive 450 thousand from the state in order to pay off part of the mortgage or spend money on the down payment.
Also, until 2024, the "Far Eastern Mortgage" operates at 2% per annum.
Thanks to the initiative, 970 thousand square meters of housing were commissioned in the region in the first half of 2021, which is 70% more than last year.
- In 2020, housing prices in Russia increased by an average of 12%, and in some regions the cost per square meter rose by 20-30%. How can prices change at the end of the current year?
- We see that the volume of housing output on the market is growing noticeably, and now some developers, for example, in Moscow and St. Petersburg, are beginning to use discount programs.
At the same time, there is no longer a strong subsidized demand in the primary market, as it was last year.
Against this background, we expect that supply and demand in the housing market will balance, prices will stabilize by the end of the year, and we expect that they will reach the inflation rate.
We, in turn, cannot stop, and we are actively working in this area: we are launching new projects, creating an infrastructure menu for housing construction, trying to remove administrative barriers.
Measures will also be taken to stimulate individual housing construction.
Some developers may enter this market, which will additionally stabilize demand and property prices.
- How, in your opinion, the extension and expansion of the conditions of preferential family mortgages can affect the pace of granting housing loans in Russia?
- We expect that about 100 thousand loans per year will be issued under the program.
We are counting very much on the initiative: over the past month, it accounted for 7,000 housing loans, which is almost one and a half to two times more than in previous months.
At the same time, some banks issue such loans at a lower interest rate than indicated in the initiative.
This is great support for families.
As the population becomes more aware of the program, we expect that the average issue under the Family Mortgage program will grow from 6-7 thousand per month to 12-15 thousand. In annual terms, this means that 160-180 will be able to improve housing conditions per year. thousand families instead of 70-80 thousand. We forecast such results by the end of 2022.
At the same time, now about 40% of the population in Russia cannot afford to take out a mortgage, even if the rate was 0% per annum.
They simply do not have the corresponding income.
Therefore, we are thinking about introducing specialized rental housing to the market, and we plan to launch similar projects.
So, on the sidelines of the EEF, we are going to sign agreements with Magadan and Sakhalin on the construction of such facilities.
Thanks to the initiative, Russians will not have to look for funds for a down payment on a mortgage, but will be able to pay only a monthly rent.
It must be accessible.
A person should not spend more than 30% of his budget on paying for housing.
- Since the beginning of the year, the Central Bank has steadily increased the key rate as part of the fight against inflation and has already raised it to 6.5% per annum. How in these conditions can mortgage rates change at the end of the year?
- The market rate for home loans is now about 8.2-8.3% per annum.
I think by the end of the year it will grow to 8.5% per annum.
Vitaly Mutko on the change in mortgage rates
Everything will depend on what decisions on the key rate the Central Bank will make by the end of the year.
At the same time, preferential programs will function in the same format, and the increase in the Central Bank rate will not affect them in any way.
- In July 2021, 7.44 million square meters of housing were commissioned in Russia, which is 30% more than in the same period of 2020. How much housing can be commissioned by the end of the year?
- By the end of 2021, we forecast good results - 84-85 million square meters will be commissioned. The next year will be more difficult for developers: all objects for which permits were issued in 2018-2019 will already be bought out by clients, so there will be less commissioning, but enough to cover demand.