The stability of total credit growth will increase

  Our reporter Chen Guojing

  "It still needs to work hard to maintain stable credit growth." Recently, the central bank held a symposium on the analysis of the monetary and credit situation of financial institutions to study the current monetary and credit situation and plan the next step of monetary and credit work.

  The next currency and credit situation is the focus of market attention, especially since a number of financial data in July of this year fell short of market expectations, causing market concerns.

People are very concerned about the future trend of money and credit, which focus will be focused on, and how to better serve the real economy.

  Pressure on stable credit growth

  "Enhancing the stability of total credit growth." This is a new formulation at the forum.

In the context of large fluctuations in short-term financial data, this is undoubtedly a "reassurance" for the market.

  In July, data such as the scale of social financing and broad money (M2) fell short of market expectations.

In July, the scale of social financing increased by 1.06 trillion yuan, 636.2 billion yuan less than the same period last year.

At the end of July, the growth rate of M2 increased by 8.3% year-on-year, which was 0.3 percentage points lower than the end of the previous month.

In addition, there was a small increase in medium and long-term loans in July, and the new scale increased by 103.1 billion yuan compared with the same period last year. This was the first time this year that the year-on-year increase was small, ending the previous 16 consecutive months of year-on-year growth.

  Although from a long-term perspective, the current growth rate of my country's M2 and social financing scale basically matches the nominal economic growth rate, and continues to be maintained at a reasonable level. Monetary policy has maintained continuity, stability, and sustainability, but short-term data fluctuations are also Aroused market attention and worries.

Dong Ximiao, chief researcher of China Merchants Union Finance, believes that the basic trend of my country's economic improvement remains unchanged, but from the financial data in July, signs of insufficient effective credit demand are beginning to appear, and there is greater pressure for stable credit growth.

  "Since this year, credit has grown steadily and the structure has been optimized." Everbright Securities Chief Fixed Income Analyst Zhang Xu said that since the second quarter, the year-on-year growth rate of loan balances of financial institutions has been around 12%; at the end of June, inclusive small and micro loans The year-on-year growth rate of the balance of medium and long-term loans to the manufacturing industry reached 31% and 41.6%, respectively.

However, it is worth noting that there have been some fluctuations in credit demand in the real economy recently, and the stability of total credit growth needs to be enhanced.

In response to the current problems, the central bank specifically proposed at the symposium that “it still needs to work hard to maintain a steady growth of credit” and demanded “enhance the stability of the growth of total credit”.

Dong Ximiao believes that this move is forward-looking and targeted.

  Strengthening to support the real economy

  At the symposium, the central bank emphasized that it should put the service of the real economy in a more prominent position and support high-quality economic development with moderate currency growth.

It also proposed to help small and medium-sized enterprises and difficult industries continue to recover.

Industry experts believe that this means that in the future, finance will increase its support for the real economy, and there is little room for further decline in the growth rate of M2 and social financing.

  Dong Ximiao believes that in terms of total volume, market liquidity will be more reasonable and abundant in the second half of the year than in the first half.

In the second half of the year, the MLF has a large amount of maturity. Therefore, it is still possible to replace it through methods such as RRR cuts, which will play a role of "two birds with one stone"-it can not only promote banks to enhance credit lending capacity, but also guide actual loans Interest rates have fallen.

  Enhancing the stability of the growth of total credit does not mean flooding.

"Relevant policy adjustments will still be structural." Dong Ximiao said that monetary policy will still adhere to a prudent tone and seek a balance between supporting economic growth and preventing risks. It will not tighten significantly, nor will it slip into the "big waters". Flooding".

The central bank will use more structural tools to guide financial institutions to increase support for green development, technological innovation, small and micro enterprises, and rural revitalization.

For the real estate market, we will continue to adhere to the positioning of "housing to live without speculation", and continue to implement the real estate loan concentration management system and the "third-line and four-tier" financing management requirements for real estate enterprises.

  While maintaining the continuity, stability, and sustainability of monetary policy, it is also necessary to strengthen coordination between policies.

Zhang Xu believes that the short-term decline in credit demand is also related to the "post-positioning" of fiscal policy.

In the first seven months of this year, the issuance of new special bonds decreased, the budgetary expenditures of local government funds fell by 7.9% year-on-year, and the year-on-year growth rate of infrastructure investment completed rapidly fell to 4.6%, which to a certain extent formed the financing needs of the real economy. drag.

Therefore, it is more necessary to reasonably control the progress of budgetary investment and local government bond issuance, promote the formation of physical workload, and enhance the stability of the growth of total credit.

  Ensure that the overall financing cost is stable and declining

  Next, promoting the steady and slow decline of the comprehensive financing costs of small and micro enterprises is still the focus of monetary policy.

  "There is a view that lowering the RRR and interest rates can make loan interest rates go down. This is obviously wrong." Zhang Xu believes that monetary policy is not only about lowering the RRR.

For example, there was no RRR cut from June last year to June this year, but the weighted average interest rate of general loans dropped from 5.26% to 5.2%.

  For some time to come, strengthening the transmission of monetary policy is still the key, and financial regulatory authorities will urge banks to transmit policy dividends to the real economy.

In the first half of this year, measures to reduce the cost of bank liabilities have provided room for lowering the actual interest rate of loans. For example, the continued reduction in the size of structural deposits will be implemented in July and the release of long-term funds of approximately 1 trillion yuan will reduce the capital cost of financial institutions. Approximately 13 billion yuan per year and so on.

In addition, policies on the asset side of banks, such as including the use of loan market quoted interest rates (LPR) into the assessment, have also increased the pressure for banks to lower the actual interest rate of loans.

Zhang Xu predicts that in the next step, financial regulatory authorities will actively take measures to ease restrictions on liquidity, interest rates, and capital, and enhance the stability of total credit growth.

  The potential of LPR reform will also be further released.

Zhang Xu said that the previous LPR reform broke the bank's coordinated pricing in the loan market.

Before the LPR reform, some banks used coordinated behavior to set an implicit lower limit at a certain multiple (such as 0.9 times) of the benchmark lending rate, which hindered the transmission of market interest rates to the real economy.

After the LPR reform, banks need to use LPR as a reference for pricing, and it is not easy for banks to form new collaborative pricing in a short period of time.

In this way, the bargaining power of the enterprise is correspondingly improved. As a result, the implicit lower limit of the loan interest rate is completely broken, and the financing cost of the real economy can be reduced.

Next, the potential of LPR reform will continue to be released, optimizing the supervision of deposit interest rates, and promoting the steady and slow decline of the comprehensive financing costs of small and micro enterprises.

Keywords: