Helping small and medium-sized enterprises and difficult industries to recover, and coping with the impact of global supply and demand mismatch——

　　How Monetary Policy Should Be Forced in the Next Step

　　Our reporter Chen Guojing

　　After the "transcripts" were released in the first half of the year, how the monetary policy will go next and what key points to focus on have been the focus of market attention in recent times.

Recently, the "Report on the Implementation of China's Monetary Policy for the Second Quarter of 2021" issued by the People's Bank of China pointed out the key points for the next step of monetary policy.

　　Ensure that the overall financing cost is stable and reduced

　　Against the background that the actual loan interest rate in the first half of the year has stabilized and declined, some people are worried about whether there is room for further decline in interest rates in the second half of the year.

　　"Corporate loan interest rates still have room for downside." Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Oriental Jincheng, believes that under the background that the MLF interest rate and 1-year LPR quotation in the second quarter remain unchanged, the main loan interest rate can go down. There are two main reasons. The reasons are as follows: first, the money market interest rate fell in the second quarter as a whole, and the marginal cost of funds for banks fell; second, the financial regulatory authorities urged banks to transfer policy dividends to the real economy.

　　Statistics show that in the first six months of this year, the weighted average interest rate of loans was 5.07%, a decrease of 0.07 percentage points from the same period last year, and a decrease of 0.08 percentage points from the entire year of the previous year.

It is worth noting that in the first half of the year, corporate loan interest rates fell even more.

The weighted average interest rate of corporate loans in the first six months was 4.63%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points from the same period last year, and a decrease of 0.09 percentage points from the entire year of the previous year. The financing cost of the real economy was steadily decreasing.

　　The report believes that from a macro perspective, my country's interest rates are generally at a reasonable level, which provides a suitable interest rate environment for stable economic operation and high-quality development.

Compared with the world, although my country's interest rate level is slightly higher than that of major developed economies, it is relatively low in developing countries and emerging economies.

From the perspective of the actual interest rate of loans to enterprises, the major commercial banks in China and the United States are basically the same.

Central bank statistics show that in the first quarter of 2021, the average interest rate of loans from the four major commercial banks in the United States (Citi, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and JPMorgan Chase) is about 4.03%; ) The average loan interest rate is about 4.04%.

　　In the next step, the central bank stated in the report that it will improve the market-based interest rate formation and transmission mechanism, improve the central bank’s policy interest rate system, continue to release the potential of LPR reform, unblock the loan interest rate transmission channel, optimize the structure of financial resources allocation, and consolidate the results of the previous loan interest rate decline. .

At the same time, optimizing the supervision of deposit interest rates, maintaining the basic stability of bank debt-side costs, and urging banks to transmit policy dividends to the real economy, and promote the further reduction of actual loan interest rates, to ensure that the comprehensive financing costs of small and micro enterprises are steadily and slightly reduced.

　　Specifically, Wang Qing predicts that after the central bank’s overall RRR cut in July, it will directly save banks about 13 billion yuan in capital costs. Under this background, affected by the cumulative effect of the decline in bank capital costs, the 1-year LPR quotation is still slightly The possibility of a downward adjustment will further reduce the actual loan interest rate of enterprises.

　　Pay close attention to price movements

　　In the report, the central bank once again discussed the relationship between currency and inflation in the form of a column.

This is after the first quarter, the central bank once again focused on the issue of inflation in the monetary policy implementation report during the year to respond to market concerns.

　　Prior to this, the central bank has repeatedly expounded the relationship between inflation and currency in the monetary policy implementation report, and analyzed the causes of inflation.

For example, the "Report on the Implementation of China's Monetary Policy in the Fourth Quarter of 2003" talked about "prices and monetary policy" in the form of a column; the "Report on the Implementation of China's Monetary Policy in the Fourth Quarter of 2010" discussed "inflation and currency" in the form of a column.

　　The latest data shows that my country’s PPI grew by 9% year-on-year in July, and the “scissor gap” between PPI and CPI reached 8 percentage points, which is a new high since the data. This has triggered concerns about inflation in the market.

In response to market concerns, the central bank emphasized in the report that although the PPI has risen in stages, in general, inflation pressures are controllable and there is no basis for long-term inflation or deflation.

The high probability of my country's PPI rising is phased, and it may remain relatively high in the short term. As the base effect fades and global production and supply recovers, PPI is expected to tend to fall in the future.

　　China Merchants Securities macro analyst Luo Yunfeng pointed out that the central bank’s report analyzed the reasons for this round of global inflation and intended to emphasize that the growth rate of my country’s money supply has gradually returned to normal since May last year, ahead of other large economies. Monetary conditions of prices, therefore, my country's inflationary pressure is controllable as a whole.

At the end of June this year, my country’s M2 growth rate was 8.6%, which was basically the same as before the epidemic and basically matched the nominal economic growth rate, stabilizing prices from a macro perspective.

　　“The mismatch between global supply and demand still exists, and whether inflation will continue to rise remains to be seen.” The report pointed out that during the epidemic, major developed economies implemented ultra-loose monetary policies, with extremely ample liquidity and substantial currency growth. At the same time, the global economic recovery showed a rebound in demand. The stage is faster than the supply recovery, the continuous shortage of chips and the repeated record highs in freight rates have brought greater upward pressure on the prices of commodities and durable goods. The short-term increase in global inflation has become a fact, but there are still big differences in whether inflation will continue. , Need to pay close attention.

　　Adhere to the monetary policy and rely on me

　　At present, the international financial market is concerned that the Fed may reduce quantitative easing and raise interest rates ahead of schedule. Under this background, what will be the future trend of my country's monetary policy?

　　Wang Qing believes that the central bank emphasized in the report to increase the autonomy of macroeconomic policies, which means that even if the Fed initiates the "reduction of water" in the second half of the year, it will not lead to a subsequent tightening of domestic monetary policy.

In the context of the shift in global monetary policy, taking into account the large differences in domestic and international economic and price situations, domestic monetary policy will emphasize autonomy.

　　The central bank emphasized in the report that it will coordinate macro policy convergence for this year and next, maintain the stability of monetary policy, enhance forward-looking and effective, resolutely refrain from "flooding flooding", continue to focus on supporting the real economy, and help small and medium-sized enterprises and difficult industries to continue. Restore and maintain economic operation within a reasonable range.

　　This means that my country's monetary policy will not be substantially tightened, nor will it move toward "overwhelming flooding."

Wang Qing believes that monetary policy will continue to maintain a stable and neutral tone, instead of shifting to full easing.

After the monetary policy returns to normal, the RRR cut is a routine liquidity operation.

Not cutting interest rates while reducing the RRR means that monetary policy will still maintain a stable and neutral tone.

　　"An important prerequisite for maintaining the autonomy of monetary policy is to maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate." Wang Qing emphasized.

Since 2020, the RMB exchange rate has shown a two-way dynamic trend.

In this regard, the central bank pointed out in the report that the two-way fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate is the result of the combined effects of the domestic and international economic situation, the international balance of payments, and the changes in the foreign exchange market at home and abroad. The role of an automatic economic stabilizer promotes internal and external balance and expands the space for my country to independently implement normal monetary policies.

In the future, two-way fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate will also be normal. The RMB may appreciate or depreciate. No one can accurately predict the exchange rate trend.

　　In the next step, the central bank emphasized in the report that it is necessary to continue to adhere to a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand, with reference to a basket of currencies for adjustment, rational use of monetary policy tools, and strengthen macro-prudential management of cross-border financing through various methods Reasonably guide expectations, guide enterprises and financial institutions to establish a "risk-neutral" concept, and maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level.