Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client, August 23 (Xiong Siyi) At 24:00 today (23rd), a new round of price adjustment window for domestic refined oil products will open.

Many agencies predict that the retail price of refined oil is facing a third drop this year, and it is most likely to be the biggest drop since 2021.

Data map: Gas station.

Photo by Zhang Meng, China-Singapore Jingwei

  During the current pricing cycle, international oil prices rose first and then fell.

As of the early morning close of August 21, the price of light crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by 1.37 US dollars to close at 62.32 US dollars per barrel, a decline of 2.15%; London Brent crude oil futures prices for October delivery It fell 1.27 US dollars to close at 65.18 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of 1.91%.

Since August 12, international crude oil futures prices have fallen for 7 consecutive trading days.

  Zhuo Chuang Information analyst Xu Na pointed out that at the beginning of this pricing cycle, the decline in US crude oil inventories and gasoline inventories temporarily boosted the market, and international oil prices are still rising.

The good times are not long. As the Delta mutant virus and the global economic slowdown have adversely affected the market demand prospects, and the supply prospects are also negative for the oil market, international oil prices have begun to fall.

  As the international crude oil futures prices continue to decline, expectations of a downward adjustment in the domestic retail prices of refined oil products continue to expand.

Many domestic institutions generally predict that the retail price limit of refined oil products will be lowered by about 220 yuan/ton at 24:00 on August 23.

  Among them, Jin Lianchuang analyst Wang Shan pointed out that as of the ninth working day on August 20, the average price of reference crude oil was US$69.29 per barrel, and the rate of change was -4.95%. The corresponding retail price of domestic gasoline and diesel should be reduced by 225 Yuan / ton.

Wang Shan also said that due to the influence of inertia, the expected retail price reduction is still likely to increase further.

  Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client noticed that since 2021, domestic refined oil products have undergone 15 rounds of price adjustments. Gasoline prices have increased by 1,375 yuan/ton in total, and diesel prices have increased by 1,325 yuan/ton in total, showing a pattern of “ten up, two down, three stranded”.

If this round of lowering expectations is realized, it will present a pattern of "ten ups, three downs and three strands".

  For private car owners, after this round of reduction is expected to be implemented, fuel costs will drop significantly.

Wang Shan pointed out that the calculation is based on a reduction of 230 yuan/ton per ton.

In terms of gasoline, a private car with a fuel tank of 60 liters will cost about 11 yuan less than the previous cycle when filling a tank of fuel.

  In addition, Longzhong Information analyst Liu Bingjuan mentioned that the retail price of gasoline at private gas stations is 0.4-0.6 yuan per liter lower than that of main gas stations, and the discount can reach 1-1.3 yuan per liter during some site activities.

  Looking forward to the future, Wang Shan believes that after crude oil has experienced a sustained and substantial decline, oil prices may seek support. It is expected that crude oil will have a bottoming process, which may gradually stabilize and fluctuate in the short term.

Liu Bingjuan believes that if the global epidemic still does not improve significantly, and economic and demand concerns continue, it is expected that the next round of refined oil price adjustments will have a higher probability.

(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

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