Three days, two capitals, one topic: Nord Stream 2. Just as the gas pipeline was on the agenda when Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU) visited Russia's President Vladimir Putin on Friday, the pipeline will play during Merkel's visit on Sunday in Kiev, Ukraine a leading role.
There is great concern there that they will be cut off from Russian gas transfers and revenues.
Andreas Mihm
Business correspondent for Austria, East-Central and Southeastern Europe and Turkey based in Vienna.
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Christian Geinitz
Business correspondent in Berlin
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Merkel wants to alleviate concerns by means of new transit agreements with Ukraine and has reappointed EY supervisory board chairman Georg Graf Waldersee as a special representative.
However, current developments arouse skepticism about Russia's readiness.
Because gas deliveries to Germany have decreased, and the filling levels of the European Gazprom storage facilities are extremely low.
Supply is not at risk
Energy experts and the opposition in Berlin suspect a Russian blackmail attempt behind this: The throttling is apparently intended to induce the outgoing federal government to literally step up the gas on Nord Stream 2 - before a more critical coalition may take office. The green candidate for Chancellor Annalena Baerbock, for example, has spoken out clearly against Nord Stream 2 for climate policy and geostrategic reasons. For her party, it is currently clear that Moscow is putting pressure on the gas tap.
Gazprom has a stake in a quarter of German storage facilities, says Deputy Green parliamentary leader Oliver Krischer. It is no coincidence that these are so little filled. "The empty storage facilities are likely to have contributed to the fact that the federal government was so vehemently committed to US President Biden to soften the sanctions against Nord Stream 2," said Krischer. "With storage tanks half full and without Nord Stream 2, cold apartments would have been likely by February at the latest."
The federal government rejects the fears.
"We currently see no supply risk," says a spokeswoman for Minister Peter Altmaier (CDU).
The ministry is continuously following the situation.
“However, the market decides about the filling of storage tanks.” Due to the price differences between summer and winter, there are currently “relatively low incentives for storage”.
Comparatively little gas delivered
The Russian energy company Gazprom has just announced that it will transport 5.6 billion cubic meters of gas to Germany via the almost completed new Baltic Sea pipeline Nord Stream 2 this year. But this information is doubted, even if the line should be technically ready soon. Kirsten Westphal, gas market expert at the Science and Politics Foundation, says: "I don't see that the certification process for Nord Stream 2 will be completed before January or February 2022". In this respect, Germany is "indeed heading for a very difficult situation." All signs point to high price fluctuations for liquefied natural gas (LNG), which supplements pipeline gas from Russia, Norway and the Netherlands.
Market participants are wondering why Gazprom is currently pumping so little gas into Central and Western Europe. The quantities of the Yamal gas pipeline leading through Poland to Germany were reduced three times: at the end of July from 81 million to 49 million cubic meters per day. Then, on August 5th, after an accident in Siberia to 34 million cubic meters, on August 11th it fell to 20 million cubic meters, a quarter of the normal level. Another 1.6 billion cubic meters were missing due to maintenance work on Nord Stream 1. The bottom line is that, according to the Ukrainian gas network operator, almost 2 billion cubic meters are missing.