<Anchor> This is a
friendly economic time. Today (the 20th), I will be with reporter Kim Hye-min. A lot of people have heard and heard that the birth rate is low these days, but I was surprised to see the news reporter Kim prepared today. There are data that show how much the population will decrease if it goes on like this.
<Reporter> The
total fertility rate is too low. But this time, a shocking investigation result came out and I brought it with me.
According to the National Statistical Office by the Board of Audit and Inspection, 100 years from here as of 2017, that is, 2117 years. At this time, we released data that predicted how much the country's population would decrease.
It seems like a very distant future, but in fact, when I think of the generation in which our grandchildren and grandchildren live, it feels close again.
Then, 100 years later, the rate of population decline was much greater than expected. In 2017, the population of Korea exceeded 50 million.
After 50 years, the number will decrease to 36 million. 100 years later, in 2117, the number will drop to 15.1 million. If you do the math, you will be left with less than 30% of the number in 100 years.
What is more worrisome is that this calculation is based on the TFR in 2018, and the TFR continues to decline. The point is that something more serious than this may come in the future.
<Anchor>
No, I mean, the real decline seems to be a lot bigger than expected. So far, we've only looked at the whole of Korea and figured it out, and I think there may be differences by region as well.
<Reporter>
Even now, there are many places in the provinces where it is not easy to see children. The population decline in provincial large cities is even steeper: Busan will shrink to a fifth after 100 years, with only 730,000 people living there, while Daegu will decrease to 22% and Gwangju to 23%.
By the way, Gyeonggi-do's population is increasing year by year. Nevertheless, in 2117, it will be reduced to a third.
Without children, the proportion of the elderly in the total population is also rapidly increasing. The number of people aged 65 and over will be close to half by 2067, and it will rise to 52.8% by 2117.
100 years from now, Korea will become a 'country of the elderly', with one in two citizens aged 65 or older. The welfare cost of one young person who can work is much higher. The country's productivity is also falling, and economic growth is inevitably slowing down.
<Anchor> That's
right. I'm really worried about places where the population is declining, but I think it's time to seriously think about the fact that half of the reduced population is the elderly. But what I was surprised to see is that the number of people is decreasing, you can imagine. But are there areas at risk of population extinction?
<Reporter>
There is such a thing as the 'population extinction index'. This is a bit strange. The way this index is calculated is to divide the population of women of childbearing age in a region by the population aged 65 and over.
If there are twice as many elderly people as the female population of childbearing age, it is classified as a 'risk of extinction stage' where it is difficult to maintain the status quo, and if there are more than 5 times the number of elderly people, it is classified as a 'high risk of extinction stage' because it is impossible to establish a community.
There were only 12 cities, counties, and wards entering this high-risk stage in 2017, but it is estimated that the number will increase to 221 in 100 years, 18 times more.
Let's take Seoul as an example. After 100 years, with the exception of Gangnam, Gwangjin, Gwanak, and Mapo, all other districts are expected to enter the high-risk stage of extinction.
The situation in the provinces is more serious. Except for Busan Gangseo, Gwangju Gwangsan, and Daejeon Yuseong, all areas are in the high-risk group for extinction.
<Anchor> The
real population is decreasing, so it may disappear, so I personally think that the word extinction itself is a bit scary. But reporter Kim told me about the first news. All the data we talked about is based on the fertility rate in 2018, but the fertility rate is getting lower and lower. I think it will get faster in the future.
<Reporter>
Yes. Researchers who participated in the analysis of the study also expressed similar opinions, but in view of the current low fertility trend, this estimate is 'conservative' and explained that the possibility that the actual rate of extinction in the region will be greatly accelerated in the future cannot be ruled out.
In addition, the spread of COVID-19 is further weakening the will to have children. The Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs conducted a survey of married women of childbearing age.
About 1 in 3 of the total respondents answered that their intention to give birth was less than before. The impact of the decline in fertility due to COVID-19 has not yet been seen, and this is expected to begin in earnest in two or three years.
So far, skepticism has prevailed as to how well the government's policies are in place to prepare for such a shocking population cliff prediction.