The election polls are increasingly unfavorable for the Union with its Chancellor candidate Armin Laschet. However, Laschet can still rely on the support of an important group: In the judgment of the German leaders from politics, business and administration, North Rhine-Westphalia's Prime Minister is the clear favorite for the Chancellery, ahead of SPD competitor Olaf Scholz and the green hope Annalena Baerbock. 63 percent of the decision-makers would entrust Laschet with the most important government post. Only 24 percent prefer Scholz, only 5 percent would prefer to see Baerbock instead of Chancellor Angela Merkel. This is the result of the new elite panel, for which the Allensbach-based opinion pollers, on behalf of the FAZ and the business newspaper Capital, surveyed more than 500 executives in Germany.

Heike Goebel

Responsible editor for economic policy, responsible for “The order of the economy”.

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Renate Köcher, head of the Institute for Demoscopy Allensbach, explains the much greater support for Laschet in the management levels compared to the broad electorate with the greater confidence there in the politics of the CDU and CSU.

The leadership looked more closely than the population to the politics behind the person.

Personally, Laschet scores with the elites primarily with his credibility and reliability, they grant his competitors more strategic skill and assertiveness.

More support for the SPD through mistakes of others

SPD man Scholz is currently making a good figure as Merkel's Vice Chancellor and Federal Minister of Finance in the fight against Corona. The majority of the elites certify Scholz as having “good work”, while they are largely dissatisfied with CDU Economics Minister Peter Altmaier, for example. Scholz's resolute approach to Corona aid is likely to have strengthened his image as a competent and knowledgeable politician. In these disciplines he leaves his competitors behind for the crown of chancellor. Quiver remains skeptical: "Scholz is rated well, his shortcoming lies in the fact that he is not trusted to determine the course of the SPD." The SPD has recently gained mainly thanks to the mistakes of the other parties, not because of growing enthusiasm for their political issues Offer, says the pollster.

Charisma is also very useful for politicians. But in the eyes of the elites only Baerbock possesses this quality to a high degree. Only with her charisma does the co-chair of the Greens leave her competitors far behind. The top management do not think much of Baerbock's credibility and expertise. The plagiarism that became known at the time of the survey in July and the embellished résumé are likely to have contributed to the weak impression, especially since Baerbock's lack of government experience was also brought into focus.

The prospect of a black-green coalition has clearly lost its attractiveness for the elites. Most still consider this alliance to be the most likely election outcome, but the enthusiasm has cooled noticeably. At the beginning of the year, 67 percent of those surveyed said they would like a black-green federal government, at the end of July it was only 58 percent.