Chinanews client, Beijing, August 16 (Zuo Yukun) Is house prices finally going to not rise?
"In July 2021, the sales price of commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium-sized cities declined compared with the previous month and the year-on-year increase overall." Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 16th showed.
Among them, the price increase of new and second-hand houses in first-tier cities dropped by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and the increase in prices of new and second-hand houses in second-tier cities dropped by 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points respectively from the previous month.
Will cooling down become the main tone of the property market in the second half of the year?
Data map: real estate.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Yang Bo
Record-setting more than 380 adjustments have worked
"From the perspective of the rising trend of house prices, after the peak in March-April, the rate of increase has continued to narrow since the second quarter." said Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Property.
In July, 51 of the 70 cities saw the rise in housing prices for newly built houses, and 41 cities saw the rise in housing prices for second-hand houses. The numbers were the lowest in the year, and they were significantly reduced compared to the first half of the year.
So far, the number of cities with rising housing prices has been lowered for 4 consecutive months.
"Since 2021, a series of real estate control has finally seen initial results, and the impact of real estate control on housing prices has become more and more obvious." Zhang Dawei said.
Statistics from the Centaline Real Estate Research Center show that in July, the real estate control policy blowout, from the central government to the ministries and commissions to the local government, the control policies reached 66 times, setting a new record for the year.
From January to July, the total real estate regulation has reached 352 times. In the first half of August, various real estate regulation policies continued to appear intensively, with a total of more than 30 times.
"On average, more than 50 real estate adjustments per month reflect the strict trend of real estate policies. Many real estate adjustment loopholes that have existed in the past years have been patched recently." Zhang Dawei pointed out that the main core feature of January-July was tightening: The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development made interviews, rectified intermediaries, restricted second-hand housing pricing, rectified operating loans, increased land supply, encouraged leasing, and cracked down on the speculation of school district housing.
Data map: a residential building.
Photo by Guo Qiyu
The second-hand housing market releases important signals
It is not difficult to see that in the control policy, the emphasis on second-hand housing is particularly prominent.
"The quarter-on-quarter data of second-hand housing prices has shown a very obvious narrowing, which is an important signal." Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, said that under the current control of various types of second-hand housing policies, the price index of second-hand housing will be very high. Obviously enter the cooling channel.
As the first city to introduce second-hand housing guidance prices in February, Shenzhen’s continuous decline in second-hand housing prices has caused concern.
According to data from the Shenzhen real estate information platform, in July, Shenzhen, which has been called the "first city for real estate speculation" in the circle in recent years, had a total of 2,557 second-hand houses sold, a record low in nearly 17 months, compared with the previous year's July transaction of 13,407. The amount plummeted by 80.9%.
"Shenzhen's regulatory effects are constantly being reflected. It is expected that the subsequent cooling of first-tier cities will be a high probability event. The third and fourth-tier cities that have been interviewed recently are also covered. The coverage of real estate regulation is further expanded, and the pace of market cooling will also accelerate." Said Zhang Bo, Dean of 58 Anju Guest House Industry Research Institute.
A review found that since 2021, more than 20 cities across the country have issued policies and notices for second-hand housing.
Cities such as Xi'an, Hangzhou, Dongguan, and Shenzhen have issued second-hand housing price limit policies, and cities such as Wuxi, Chengdu, Guangzhou, Hefei, Beijing, and Shanghai have taken corresponding actions against illegal quotations and price hikes of second-hand housing.
Data map: The new landmark of Shenzhen Bay-the charm of "spring shoots".
China News Agency reporter Chen Wenshe
The cooling of the property market in the second half of the year will be the main tone
"Since the beginning of this year, with the economic recovery, especially the improvement in financing conditions, housing prices in some areas have risen significantly." On the 16th, Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, also asked at a press conference on "whether the property market has cooled down?" Response:
“In this regard, relevant departments have strengthened market regulation, implemented the main responsibilities of cities, curbed unreasonable demand, and promoted the overall stabilization of the real estate market. In July, the increase in the sales price of commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium-sized cities continued to fall, starting from real estate sales and investment. Looking at it, the real estate market has remained stable overall."
"From the perspective of the regulation and control direction in July, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and other eight departments issued a document to jointly continue to rectify and standardize the real estate market order, and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development interviewed 5 cities at the same time, indicating that the pace of tight real estate regulation and control remains unchanged." Zhang Bo expects Under the pressure of regulation, the pressure of rising housing prices in the third quarter will obviously slow down.
"More importantly, 22 cities with centralized land supply are facing adjustment and improvement of land policies. Not only are they making a fuss about limiting land prices, but emphasizing more detailed and deepening of the real estate linkage control mechanism, which will further enhance the expectation of long-term stability in housing prices." Zhang Bo say.
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