Why does the spot price of egg futures deviate from


   Our reporter Zhu Huichun

  Recently, many consumers have discovered that eggs in the vegetable market have become more expensive.

According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, since July, the wholesale price of eggs has continued to rise across the country.

Statistics show that the increase has exceeded 20% in the last month.

  Egg futures are also an industry price indicator.

While the purchase price and wholesale price of eggs rose rapidly, the price of egg futures continued to fluctuate downward.

What is the reason for the divergence between the spot price of eggs and the price of futures?

  The reporter learned during the interview that egg consumption has a seasonal pattern, and egg prices almost rise in July and August every year.

"In the third quarter, industrial stocking, Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday demand, combined with the demand boost from the September school season, the egg spot is in a tight balance between supply and demand." Kong Hailan, an agricultural product researcher at Everbright Futures, said in an interview with a reporter from the Economic Daily. The rebound in egg spot prices is in line with the seasonal law of egg prices.

Generally speaking, the spot price of eggs will rebound from July and will be the highest point in the whole year before the Mid-Autumn Festival, with price increases ranging from 1.5 yuan/jin to 2 yuan/jin.

  "The trend of egg spot and futures is in line with the trend of the same period in history." Hou Xiaorui, an analyst at the Fresh Products Division of Yide Futures, said that the reason for the rise in spot is mainly determined by the relationship between supply and demand.

  From the perspective of supply, the stock of laying hens across the country was in a downward trend in the first half of this year.

As the price of corn has been at a high level in the past ten years, the cost of laying hen farming is high, and the profit of laying hen farming is still weak.

Since July, the stock of laying hens has stabilized, but it has remained low.

In addition, in July, the weather is gradually hot, the laying hens enter the resting period, and the egg production rate drops, which further reduces the supply of eggs.

  On the other hand, a variety of factors such as floods and epidemics have also contributed to a sharp rise in the spot market.

Especially in the case of low egg inventory in various links, residents in some areas are more enthusiastic about stocking goods, leading to the first rise in spot prices in some areas, and further pushing up the national egg price.

However, it should be noted that the epidemic will also have a depressing effect on concentrated consumption, creating a situation where there is insufficient momentum for egg prices to rise in the later stage.

  An egg wholesaler told reporters that from a seasonal perspective, after the temperature drops in September, the laying rate of laying hens will gradually rise and the supply of eggs will increase steadily. It is expected that egg prices will fall seasonally.

  In the futures market, the current main force of egg futures is the September contract.

In the first half of this year, the September contract of egg futures fluctuated at a high level.

But entering July, egg futures squeezed out premiums, and futures prices began to weaken in early July and began to fluctuate at a low level in the middle of the month.

  For this trend, Hou Xiaorui analyzed that the futures market at the beginning of the year predicted that the stock of laying hens this year will be at a historically low level, and the supply and demand will be tightly balanced, so the premium given is high.

The data shows that in July, the number of laying hens nationwide was 1.171.9 billion, a decrease of 1.02% from the previous month and a decrease of 9.64% from the same period last year.

  However, as the August egg futures contract entered the delivery month, the futures price moved closer to the spot price, and the trend of the futures price was basically synchronized with the trend of the spot price.

The September contract, which is the main contract, contains the market's expectation of a seasonal callback after the Mid-Autumn Festival, so it is weak and fluctuating.

  "Actually, in the spot market in August every year, the futures market will go out of the post-holiday decline ahead of schedule, and the September contract will gradually change from a premium to a discount." Hou Xiaorui said that the current September contract has a spot discount of about 500 points, with a basis. It is basically the same level as the historical period with no obvious deviation. Futures are expected to remain range-bound, and there is no obvious momentum for big ups and downs.

"Futures and spot prices are not synchronized, reflecting that investors are not optimistic about the future price of eggs." An egg futures investor told reporters.

  Regarding the market outlook, Hou Xiaorui believes that the spot price of eggs will still have room to rise in August, and the follow-up will mainly focus on whether the height and durability of the spot rise exceed market expectations.

According to the law, the demand for eggs on New Year's Day and Spring Festival will reach the second highest point of the year.

When other factors remain unchanged, the demand for eggs will increase seasonally.

Kong Hailan predicted that due to the impact of reduced demand at the end of August, spot prices may enter a seasonal downward trend.