Chip shortage caused car sales to drop for three consecutive months
Our reporter Gong Mengze
Affected by the shortage of chips and other factors, the domestic auto market continued to fall in July.
The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (hereinafter referred to as "China Automobile Association") recently released data showing that in July of this year, the production and sales of automobiles were 1.863 million and 1.864 million, down 15.5% and 11.9% year-on-year, and down 4.1% and 7.5 from the previous month. %.
In the first July of this year, the production and sales of automobiles were 14.44 million and 14.756 million vehicles, up 17.2% and 19.3% year-on-year, respectively. The growth rate continued to drop by 7 percentage points and 6.3 percentage points from January to June.
In the passenger car market, sales in July this year were 1.551 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 7.0% and a month-on-month decrease of 1.1%.
Compared with 2019, passenger vehicle production and sales increased by 1.3% and 1.1% year-on-year; in the first July of this year, the cumulative sales of the passenger car market was 11.56 million, a year-on-year increase of 21.2%.
However, compared with the same period in 2019, production and sales fell by 1.2% and 1%, respectively.
The commercial vehicle market also saw a decline in July. Its production and sales for the month were 315,000 and 312,000, respectively, down 33.2% and 30.2% year-on-year.
"From the perspective of market conditions, the production and sales of passenger cars in July fell year-on-year due to the shortage of chips, but the decline narrowed." Chen Shihua, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said in an interview with a reporter from Securities Daily that the impact of the auto market in July Factors include the high base in the same period last year (increased compared to the same period in 2019); the production and sales of commercial vehicles fell significantly year-on-year due to the switch of emission regulations. However, driven by light passenger vehicles, passenger vehicles still showed growth.
In addition, Chen Shihua also stated that new energy vehicles continued to be a bright spot in July. The production and sales of that month continued to break historical records. The cumulative production and sales have exceeded the domestic annual number, and the penetration rate from January to July continued to increase to 10%.
It is worth mentioning that in July, automobile exports also continued to maintain rapid growth, and the monthly export volume reached a record high.
Domestic car sales
Three consecutive months of decline
The China Automobile Association pointed out that the decline in automobile production and sales was due to the high base in the same period last year. At the same time, the production and sales of passenger cars decreased year-on-year due to the shortage of chips. The production and sales of commercial vehicles also fell significantly year-on-year due to the switch of emission regulations; another On the one hand, July is not the peak season for car sales.
It is worth noting that since May, car sales have declined for three consecutive months.
"The auto market declined in the first half of last year, and some consumer demand was released in the second half of the year. Car sales grew rapidly from May to December last year, with a high base. The auto market has recovered in the first quarter of this year, so there is no accumulated consumer demand in the second half of the year. Car sales are expected to decline in the next few months, and the degree of decline will not be as high as in June. However, the overall auto market will continue to grow this year." Xu Haidong, deputy chief engineer of the China Automobile Association, told reporters.
In addition, the shortage of automotive chips has a significant impact on the auto market.
"The shortage of cores in the second quarter is obvious. At present, the inventory of automakers is low on the production side. From the perspective of sales, the inventory is also below a reasonable level. The core shortage in the second half of the year was expected to ease, but in July The supply chain at home and abroad has also been affected. June to August is the period when the chip shortage has the greatest impact. With the national level of supervision on driving up chip prices, the chip shortage will gradually ease." Chen Shihua, Deputy Secretary-General of the China Automobile Association Said to reporters.
At the same time, the Travel Association also pointed out that at this stage, the global automotive supply and demand gap is relatively large, and the insufficient supply of chips has caused some domestic auto companies to reduce production and suffer serious losses.
In recent months, some auto companies have seen a sharp decline in their wholesale sales. In particular, the demand for orders from joint-venture brand dealers does not match the existing inventory, which has led to a weaker retail sales.
Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the Travel Federation, told the Securities Daily: "The chip market is still facing uncertainty in August, and the chip shortage will be significantly eased in September."
Looking forward to the whole year, the China Automobile Association believes that the risk of chip supply shortages still exists, factors affecting the supply and demand of automobiles in the market still exist, and the continued high price of raw materials will further increase the cost pressure of enterprises. These problems will also cause the automobile industry. Influence.
Taking all factors into consideration, we need to look at the development of the industry cautiously and optimistically.
July sales of new energy passenger vehicles
Year-on-year increase of 175%
In terms of new energy vehicles, a total of 256,000 new energy passenger vehicles were sold in July, an increase of 6% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 175%.
Among them, the sales of pure electric models were 206,000, an increase of 4.2% month-on-month and 179% year-on-year; the sales of plug-in hybrid models were 50,000, an increase of 14% month-on-month and an increase of 159.7% year-on-year.
From January to July this year, the cumulative sales of new energy passenger vehicles were 1.398 million, a year-on-year increase of 212.3%.
Among them, the cumulative sales of pure electric models from January to July was 1.149 million, an increase of 235.2% year-on-year; the sales of plug-in hybrid models were 249,000, an increase of 137.5% year-on-year.
According to Xu Haidong, deputy chief engineer of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the total sales of new energy vehicles in my country this year is expected to reach 2.4 million, an increase of 76% year-on-year, which greatly exceeds the 2 million previously estimated.
To a large extent, this is due to the good foundation laid by the production and sales of new energy vehicles in the first half of the year, which exceeded 1.2 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 200%.
According to estimates by relevant experts, the share of electric vehicles may reach 20% to 25% of total vehicle sales by 2025. According to the "Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 2.0", the total number of new energy vehicles in 2030 The proportion of sales will increase to about 40%. In 2035, new energy vehicles will become the mainstream of the domestic automobile market, accounting for more than 50% of total sales.
Compared with the hot domestic sales of new energy vehicles, Tesla's sales in China in July fell sharply.
The reporter checked the data and showed that Tesla sold 32,900 vehicles in July, minus the export volume of 24,000 vehicles, which means that Tesla's sales in China were 8,600 vehicles, a 69% decrease from the previous month.
The decline of nearly 70% has even made Tesla insiders call "unintelligible."
On August 11, a person from Tesla China said in an interview that he did not know the specific reason for the decline in Tesla's sales, because Tesla "has no internal analysis" on this.
And just last month, the above-mentioned people also said that based on the multiple positive conditions, Tesla's sales in July are expected to "shoot up."
Obviously, Tesla's sales did not go as expected.
(Securities Daily)