Affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic and floods and droughts, international food prices continue to run at a high level-can
domestic food prices stabilize?
Our reporter Liu Hui
Recently, in Tuqiao Village, Yangquan Town, Changning City, Hengyang City, Hunan Province, agricultural technicians operated plant protection drones to conduct flying prevention operations for rice.
Photo by Zhou Xiuyuchun (issued by Xinhua News Agency)
At present, the new crown pneumonia epidemic is still raging. Extreme weather such as drought and heavy rainfall occurs frequently around the world. The risk of global food production reduction is increasing, and international food prices continue to run at high levels.
Faced with various difficulties in the grain market, as a major grain producer, consumer and importer, my country’s food security is not only related to domestic economic and social development and stability, but also affects international food supply, demand and prices.
Extreme weather strengthens price hike expectations
The Canadian province of Saskatchewan is known as its "food basket."
The wife of a local farmer told a reporter from the Economic Daily that this year, the Saskatchewan province of Canada was severely dry. The crops on her farm were withered and food production was affected to a certain extent.
This year, extreme weather such as droughts and floods have occurred frequently across the world, and the risk of global food production reduction has gradually increased.
The "Three Prairie Provinces" of Canada and the northern part of the Great Plains of the United States are severely dry. Farmers in the United States and Canada estimate that the drought has led to a sharp decline in spring wheat harvests.
Many countries in Europe and Asia have caused severe floods due to heavy rainfall.
Food production in France, Germany and other European countries has been reduced, and the quality has been impaired.
Flooding in eastern India caused many areas to be flooded.
Before the floods in Henan, my country had a good harvest of wheat, but autumn crops such as corn and soybeans were damaged.
Huang Hanquan, director of the Price Cost Survey Center of the National Development and Reform Commission, believes that the current raging global floods and droughts will inevitably cause losses to food production and affect global food production expectations, but will not affect global food supply security.
At present, international food prices are still operating at a high level, which is the result of the superposition of various factors. In addition to global floods and droughts, there are other factors.
First, the new crown pneumonia epidemic is still spreading. Agricultural production in the world's major grain-producing countries is plagued by many factors such as labor shortages, insufficient supply of agricultural materials, and poor turnover. Food production is facing uncertainty.
Second, due to the impact of the epidemic, global shipping costs have risen sharply, and food shipping costs have risen from US$20 per ton to US$40 to US$60.
Third, the United States and other major global economies have issued a large number of currencies, and global liquidity has been surplus, which has further boosted global food prices soaring, superimposed on speculative capital to frantically speculate food prices, and worsen the expected manufacturing market.
What is gratifying is that this year all countries in the world have taken measures to resume food production, and there have been some positive changes in the global food market.
First, global food prices fell for the first time after rising for 12 consecutive months. In June, the global cereal price index fell month-on-month, but compared with the same period last year, food prices were still at a high level.
Second, the number of global food stocks is expected to increase.
It is estimated that from 2021 to 2022, the world grain stocks will increase to 836 million tons, which is the first increase in global grain stocks in the past four years. A large part of the increase is due to the substantial increase in China's corn stocks.
The increase in global food stocks means an increase in global food supply.
Summer grain harvest helps food security
my country is a country with a large population and a large food consumer in the world. Its population accounts for one-fifth of the world, and its grain output accounts for about one-quarter of the world. my country's food security is the "stabilizer" and "ballast stone" of world food security.
For many years, my country has been adhering to the new food security concept of "basic self-sufficiency in grains and absolute safety in rations". Grain production has been harvested year after year, with sufficient stocks, the self-sufficiency rate of grains has exceeded 95%, and the self-sufficiency rate of rations has exceeded 100%. To contribute to world food security.
This year, my country's summer grain production won the "18 consecutive harvests", which won the initiative to win the annual grain harvest and provided strong support for the country's economic and social development.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the total output of summer grains in the country this year is 145.82 million tons, an increase of 2.967 million tons over 2020, an increase of 2.1%.
Although summer grain only accounts for more than 20% of the total annual grain output, wheat, the main crop of summer grain, is one of the most important rations in my country, and a good summer grain harvest is crucial to food security.
The recent floods in Henan caused serious damage to local grain production.
According to the data released by the Press Office of the Henan Provincial Government, as of August 3, 14.7 million mu of crops were affected, 9.7 million mu of crops were damaged, and 5.7 million mu of crops had never been harvested.
The relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs stated that the Henan floods had limited impact on the fundamentals of food supply and demand across the country, and had little impact on the realization of the goal of stable and increased grain production throughout the year.
At present, my country’s summer grains have been harvested in abundance, autumn grains are growing generally well, grain stocks are sufficient, and the foundation for food supply and price stability is solid.
Although the food security situation is generally improving, the tight balance of food in our country has not been fundamentally changed. Issues such as resource "red lines" and ecological "red lights" still pose challenges to my country's medium and long-term food security.
Li Jun, a professor at the School of Economics and Management of China Agricultural University, believes that our country must be prepared for danger in times of peace and constantly improve the level of food security.
First, accelerate the construction of the three major systems of modern agricultural production system, management system and industrial system, accelerate agricultural modernization, and enhance the ability to guarantee food security.
Second, implement the two strategies of storing grain on the ground and storing grain on technology, and continue to improve the overall grain production capacity.
By 2022, my country will build 1 billion mu of high-standard farmland, which can stably guarantee a grain production capacity of more than 1 trillion catties.
This year, it plans to build 100 million mu of high-standard farmland with high yields and stable yields.
Strengthen the protection of germplasm resources, strengthen the selection and promotion of excellent varieties, improve the quality of rice, wheat, and soybean oil content, and increase the yield and market adaptability.
Third, mobilize the enthusiasm of farmers to grow grain and local governments to grasp grain.
Continuously improve food production support and protection policies, continue to implement the purchase of rice and wheat in the market, grant a one-time subsidy of 20 billion yuan to actual grain farmers, expand the scope of implementation of the three major food crops and two types of insurance, and expand the scope of subsidies for the purchase of agricultural machinery. This series of high-gold support policies ensured farmers' income from growing grain, and further mobilized farmers' enthusiasm for growing grain; increased financial rewards and subsidies for major grain-producing areas and major grain-producing counties to mobilize local governments' enthusiasm for grain production.
Huang Hanquan believes that in the context of the continuous rise in international food prices, China must attach great importance to grain production in order to firmly maintain its rice bowls, and ensure that this year's grain production is stable at more than 650 million tons. In particular, rations must be absolutely safe and reasonable; The scale of grain reserves ensures that the country has sufficient "ammunition" for grain control; strengthens the entire grain industry chain to save grain and reduce losses and reduce intermediate losses and table waste.
Strengthen the ability of food supply chain management
Appropriate imports are an important part of my country's food security strategy.
In the current situation of high international food prices and rising international shipping prices, my country continues to expand imports of soybeans, corn and their substitutes.
According to the latest data from China Customs, from January to July this year, my country's grain imports were 9.1175,000 tons, compared with 72.302 million tons in the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 37.2%.
Among them, soybean imports account for 58% of total grain imports, and corn imports are expected to account for about 18% of total imports.
The large-scale import of soybeans and corn has effectively alleviated the contradiction between the tight supply and demand of feed, and effectively guaranteed the safe supply of food.
In response to the continuing rise in international food prices, my country has adhered to the bottom line of food security and adopted a series of measures to ensure supply and price stabilization, so that the negative impact of the skyrocketing global food prices has been minimized at home.
At present, domestic corn prices have fallen sharply, in sharp contrast with the high global grain prices.
"This is mainly because the domestic epidemic prevention and control is done well and the recovery of agricultural production is guaranteed; the state has successively introduced corn price control measures to combat speculation and squeeze out unreasonable price increases." Huang Hanquan said.
The superposition of factors such as the new crown pneumonia epidemic and frequent extreme weather has brought many uncertainties to the international grain trade. my country’s grain imports are facing more complex and severe external challenges. The import of bulk agricultural products has a high degree of dependence and import concentration. There is no stable channel and no global supply chain has been formed.
my country must focus on the long-term, establish a bottom-line thinking, build a diversified import pattern, and change the previous problems of too concentrated import channels and too single imported varieties.
Establish a global perspective, cultivate my country's major international grain merchants, enhance global food supply chain management capabilities, and enhance the right to speak and set prices in the international food market.
Experts said that under the premise of ensuring national food security, my country will actively participate in the construction of global and regional food security governance mechanisms, continue to improve my country's food security governance capabilities and international cooperation capabilities, promote the rational flow of global food resources, and improve the overall food security level.
Our reporter Liu Hui