Strong resilience and sufficient momentum for stable recovery
Since last year, the experience of the global economy has been extremely extraordinary: the unprecedented outbreak of new crown pneumonia suddenly broke out, and the world economy has plunged into the worst recession since the end of World War II.
Faced with the shock, China took the lead in realizing the economic growth from negative to positive, and the total economic volume in 2020 will reach a new level of one hundred billion yuan, becoming the only major economy in the world to achieve positive growth.
Since the beginning of this year, China's economy has continued to recover steadily, with gross domestic product (GDP) growing by 12.7% year-on-year in the first half of the year.
The international community continues to be optimistic about China's economy, and the World Bank and the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs have raised their expectations for China's economic growth this year.
Under the risk and challenge, how can China's economy break through against the trend?
Why does the international community frequently cast "votes of confidence"?
How to do the "second half" of the first year of the "14th Five-Year Plan"?
What is the future development situation?
This newspaper has launched a series of reports on "Why is China's Economy Going" since today, responding to hot issues, feeling the potential of China's super-large domestic market, the dividends of high-level opening, and exploring the logic behind China's strong economic resilience.
--editor
Recently, another set of economic data has been intensively released: my country’s imports and exports increased by 24.5% year-on-year in the first seven months, and the scale of foreign exchange reserves reached US$3,235.9 billion at the end of July. The business activity index of the service industry rose to 52.5% in the first half of the year. Corporate profits increased by 66.9% year-on-year...Analysts pointed out that the latest data further confirms that China's economy continues to recover steadily and is steadily improving.
At present, the global epidemic is still evolving, and the recovery of the world economy is becoming more divergent.
In this context, the GDP in the first half of the year grew by 12.7% year-on-year, and the two-year average growth rate was 5.3%, highlighting the resilience of China's economy.
Entering the second half of the year, as China accelerates the construction of a new development pattern and promotes high-quality development, China's economic development resilience will be further enhanced.
Production demand continues to rise
Four production lines operate at high speed, and more than 2,000 sweeping robots are loaded and shipped every day-this is the daily scene of the Shenzhen Jiaweishi factory.
"Since this year, our production and sales have maintained a good growth. Based on the current situation, it is expected that the growth rate of production and sales will further increase in the second half of the year." Talking about the company's operating conditions, Jiawei's marketing director Que Jianlong is full of confidence.
The improvement of business operations is a vivid portrayal of the current economic situation in China.
Since the beginning of this year, the results of the overall planning of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development have been continuously expanded and consolidated. The main macro indicators such as economic growth, employment, prices, and residents' income have been in a reasonable range, and production demand has continued to rebound.
—— "Troika" coordinated efforts.
In the first half of the year, the total retail sales of consumer goods was 21,190.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.0%. The contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth was 61.7%, driving economic growth by 7.8 percentage points; the contribution rate of total capital formation to economic growth was 19.2%, driving economic growth 2.4 percentage points; the contribution rate of net exports of goods and services to economic growth was 19.1%, driving economic growth by 2.4 percentage points.
——Production and operation continued to improve.
In the first half of the year, the value added of the industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 15.9% year-on-year, and the two-year average growth rate was 7.0%, 0.2 percentage points faster than the first quarter; the total profit of industrial enterprises on the scale was 4,218.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 66.9%, and a year-on-year increase of 45.5 %, an average increase of 20.6% in two years.
-Employment prices are generally stable.
In the first half of the year, the national urban survey unemployment rate averaged 5.2%, which was lower than the expected target of around 5.5%; 6.98 million new jobs were created in urban areas, completing 63.5% of the annual target task.
Consumer prices rose by 0.5% year-on-year, which was lower than the expected target of about 3%.
——Restoring growth of residents' income.
The economic recovery has promoted the increase in employment and the income of residents.
In the first half of the year, the national per capita disposable income of residents increased by 12.0% year-on-year in real terms, and the two-year average growth rate was 5.2%, which was 0.7 percentage points faster than the first quarter. The growth of residents' income was basically synchronized with economic growth.
"The resilience embodied in the Chinese economy has exceeded most people's expectations and has provided a guarantee for the stability of the global industrial chain." Associate Professor Shen Kailing of the Australian National University School of Business and Economics commented on the current Chinese economy.
Effective implementation of macro policies
30,000 tons of copper, 90,000 tons of aluminum, and 50,000 tons of zinc. Recently, the State Bureau of Grain and Material Reserves released the second batch of 170,000 tons of national reserve materials to the market through online public auction sales.
In addition to the previous investment, a total of 270,000 tons of copper, aluminum and zinc reserves have been put in this year.
“The reserve release has released the country’s active policy signal to ensure the supply of bulk commodities and stabilize prices, and stabilized market price expectations; at the same time, targeted placement provides a window of opportunity for mid- and downstream processing and manufacturing companies to replenish inventory and reduce the cost of raw materials for some companies. "The Director of the Comprehensive Department of the National Development and Reform Commission Yuan Da said that in the future, we will continue to organize the release of copper, aluminum, and zinc reserves in batches to further ease the pressure on the production and operation of enterprises.
Promote economic stability and recovery, and policy support is not slack.
Since the beginning of this year, in the face of risks and challenges such as the global spread of the epidemic and unreasonable rise in commodity prices, a series of macro policies have been effectively implemented: 2.8 trillion yuan of central fiscal funds have been included in the direct mechanism, and the implementation of tax cuts and fee reductions, stable jobs and employment expansion has been accelerated. Financial support for the real economy, especially the development of small, medium and micro enterprises, and other policies and measures that benefit enterprises and the people, granting a one-time subsidy of 20 billion yuan to actual grain farmers to cope with the increase in the price of agricultural materials, and the overall reduction of the reserve rate to release about 1 trillion yuan in long-term financial support entities The economy... The policy is strongly blessed, giving market players "reassurance."
Business expectations are stable and innovation is strong.
It can withstand strong typhoons of level 12, and innovatively adopt the ultra-long and durable anti-corrosion coating system for steel beams... On August 6, the newly built Fuzhou-Xiamen (Men) High-speed Rail Quanzhou Bay Cross-sea Bridge designed by the Fourth Institute of China Railway Construction Railway was successfully closed. China's high-speed rail is about to enter the cross-sea era.
Seeing leopards in the spotlight, major innovations have emerged this year: "Tianwen-1" probe successfully landed on Mars, "Manatee II" set the world record for deep seabed drilling rig drilling depth, "Hualong-1" independent third-generation nuclear power unit was put into commercial use run……
Leading by innovation, new industries, new formats and new models are flourishing.
In the first half of the year, the value added of the high-tech manufacturing industry above designated size increased by 22.6% year-on-year, 6.7 percentage points faster than all industries above designated size; the value added of the information transmission, software and information technology service industries increased by 20.3%, faster than the overall economic growth by 7.6 percentage points; The online retail sales of physical goods accounted for 23.7% of the total retail sales of consumer goods.
Sergey Sanakoyev, director of the Russian China Analysis Center, believes that in recent years, China has continuously increased investment in the field of science and technology, vigorously cultivated scientific and technological talents, and made great progress and great achievements in independent innovation.
"The Chinese government has successively introduced relevant policies to encourage technological innovation, and the innovative vitality of Chinese enterprises and talents will burst out."
Promote high-quality development
Increase investment!
Galanz invested more than 7 million yuan to build a digital platform based on the industrial Internet supply chain. Diou Furniture built a new R&D center and an intelligent production center. Jingtai Technology invested 10 million yuan in the intelligent technology transformation of the spectacle frame production line... This year, Guangdong Zhongshan Enterprise Increased investment in technological transformation one after another, driving a 52% increase in Zhongshan's industrial technological transformation investment in the first half of the year.
In order to further assist the technological transformation of enterprises, the Zhongshan Municipal Bureau of Industry and Information Technology has clearly increased its support, including 150 new projects, and issued special support funds.
The results are not bad, and we still need to work hard in the future.
We must do a good job in the cross-cycle adjustment of macroeconomic policies, tap the potential of the domestic market, guide enterprises to increase investment in technological transformation, carry out special actions to strengthen the chain, adhere to high-level opening, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market... The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a few days ago The meeting analyzed and studied the current economic situation and economic work, and set the tone for economic development in the second half of the year.
Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Macroeconomic Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, believes that on the basis of a stable economy in the first half of the year, it is necessary to take the initiative in the "second half" to ensure that the full year goal is achieved on schedule, and a good start for the "14th Five-Year Plan" Get started.
At present, the external environment is becoming more complex and severe, and the domestic economic recovery is still unstable and uneven. Doing a good job in the cross-cycle adjustment of macroeconomic policies will help us cope with risks and challenges. Fiscal policy should pay more attention to improving efficiency, and monetary policy will continue to help small and medium-sized enterprises and difficulties. industry.
By playing a set of "combined punches", we will promote sustained and stable economic recovery, enhance stamina, and achieve higher-quality development.
The international community is also generally optimistic about China's economic prospects.
Recently, the World Bank raised China’s economic growth forecast this year to 8.5%, the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs raised its forecast at the beginning of the year from 7.2% to 8.2%, and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development raised its forecast from 7.8% to 8.5%.
"The Chinese economy continues to show extraordinary resilience. While maintaining a relatively high economic growth rate, China still has more policy space to solve deep-seated problems such as unbalanced economic development." The US "Wall Street Journal" said in an article.
Qiu Haifeng