Since the beginning of this year, the economy has continued to recover steadily and stabilized and improved.
How to do the economy in the second half of the year has attracted widespread attention from all walks of life.
The Politburo meeting held a few days ago pointed out that it is necessary to do a good job in the cross-cycle adjustment of macro policies, maintain the continuity, stability, and sustainability of macro policies, make overall plans for the convergence of macro policies this year and the next, and maintain economic operations within a reasonable range.
What is the cross-cycle adjustment of macro policy?
What is the starting point and focus of the policy for cross-cycle adjustment?
In response to related issues, the Economic Daily reporter interviewed experts and scholars.
Consolidating the foundation for good still needs to work hard
To do a good job of economic work in the second half of the year, we must adhere to the general tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability, fully, accurately and comprehensively implement the new development concept, deepen supply-side structural reforms, accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, and promote high-quality development.
Chen Yanbin, executive director of the key research base for the construction of national economics textbooks at Renmin University of China, believes that since 2020, macro-control policies have better promoted China's economic recovery, and the national economy has performed well in the first half of this year.
For example, the industry is in a good development trend; with the continuous support of the employment priority policy, the overall employment situation has remained stable.
The contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth is at a relatively high level, which shows that a new development pattern with domestic and international cycles as the mainstay and mutual promotion of domestic and international cycles is gradually taking shape.
"Despite the good recovery of the national economy in the first half of the year, there is still a phenomenon of uneven recovery and unstable foundations, some structural problems and certain downward pressures. The manufacturing PMI index in July was 50.4%, which was 0.5% lower than the previous month. Percentage points." Chen Yanbin said.
Xu Hongcai, deputy director of the Economic Policy Committee of the Chinese Academy of Policy Sciences, said that overall, my country’s macro economy is showing a steady recovery, but various external and internal challenges have increased, and the future is still full of uncertainties.
It is expected that in the fourth quarter or the first half of next year, downward pressure on my country's economy will further appear, and difficulties may increase.
Lian Ping, Chief Economist and Dean of the Research Institute of Zhixin Investment, said that economic data may fall in the second half of the year. Therefore, it is necessary to coordinate for two years. It is particularly important to keep the economic growth rate at a reasonable level in the next two years.
Focus on the long-term and do a good job of cross-cycle adjustment
Xu Hongcai believes that emphasizing the cross-cycle adjustment of macroeconomic policies, maintaining the continuity, stability, and sustainability of macroeconomic policies, and coordinating the convergence of macroeconomic policies for the next two years, means that we must consolidate our efforts to ensure that the macroeconomic continues to operate smoothly. The basis of economic recovery.
What is the difference between inter-cyclical adjustment and traditional counter-cyclical adjustment?
Chen Yanbin said that the main method of countercyclical adjustment is to use two types of short-term stabilization policies, monetary policy and fiscal policy, to stabilize the output gap and inflation gap and achieve short-term stability.
The cross-cyclical adjustment policy is no longer just short-term, but medium-term or even long-term, which means that under the cross-cyclical adjustment framework, the policy will not be too loose when it is loosened, and the tightening will not be too tight.
"For the current Chinese economy, it is indeed more necessary to adopt a cross-cycle adjustment macro-control framework." Chen Yanbin said.
First of all, in addition to considering the current and second half of the year's macro policy setting and portfolio design, it also needs to focus on next year to prevent policy and economic ups and downs.
Second, judging from the month-on-month comparison of important indicators such as PMI and investment, there is a certain downward pressure on economic growth, and it is necessary to increase policy efforts for counter-cyclical adjustment, but we must also see the current financial stability and economic recovery imbalance.
In this case, it is not enough to rely on increasing monetary and fiscal policies to carry out counter-cyclical adjustments. It is also necessary to re-optimize the policy mix from the perspective of inter-cyclical adjustments.
Third, there are still large uncertainties in the current epidemic changes and the external environment, which may have a certain adverse impact on future economic growth. It is emphasized that inter-cyclical adjustment can better reserve more policy space for dealing with uncertainties.
Do a good job in the overall coordination of macro policies
In terms of fiscal policy, the Politburo meeting called for a proactive fiscal policy to enhance policy effectiveness, secure the bottom line of the “three guarantees” at the grassroots level, reasonably grasp the progress of budgetary investment and local government bond issuance, and promote the formation of a physical workload at the end of this year and early next year.
"This year, my country plans to arrange special bonds for local governments at 3.65 trillion yuan, but from the current implementation progress, it is clearly behind the past few years. It is expected that the issuance of special bonds for local governments will be accelerated in the next few months, thus forming a physical object for the end of this year and the beginning of next year. The workload lays the foundation." said Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank.
Xu Hongcai believes that from the perspective of key areas, we must first secure the bottom line of the "three guarantees", that is, guaranteeing basic people's livelihood, guaranteeing wages, and guaranteeing operation. This is the basis for stable economic development.
Increase financial support in employment, education, social security, public health, and cultural undertakings.
Second, we must control the budgetary investment and the issuance of local government bonds.
Lian Ping said that the physical workload is on the one hand to emphasize tangible growth after removing the base effect. On the other hand, it also indicates that it will strengthen support for weak links such as small and medium-sized enterprises and difficult industries to lay a solid foundation for economic recovery next year. .
Xu Hongcai believes that for those small and medium-sized enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households in tourism, culture, education services, catering and other industries affected by the epidemic, governments at all levels should provide targeted assistance, and at the same time, make a smooth transition of the previous policies to maintain relative stability. To support their better development.
In addition, it is necessary to optimize the business environment, especially in terms of financial support and fiscal policies, to provide key funds, special fund support and financing guarantees to create a good living environment for small and medium-sized enterprises.
Doing a good job in the cross-cycle adjustment of macroeconomic policies is also an inevitable requirement for promoting high-quality development and building a new development pattern.
In Chen Yanbin's view, increasing household consumption is one of the most important points of cross-cycle adjustment.
The current recovery of household consumption is relatively lagging. In addition to short-term epidemic factors, the reasons for restraining household consumption are also the imbalanced income distribution structure and the long-term formation of a "high savings-high investment" model.
Traditional short-term countercyclical adjustment tools are difficult to effectively solve the medium and long-term structural problems, and cross-cyclical adjustments are needed to break through the "blocking points" that restrict consumption.
"Resident consumption itself has cross-cycle characteristics, and it is most appropriate to adopt cross-cycle adjustment." Chen Yanbin said that the key to constructing a new development pattern lies in expanding domestic demand. To further accelerate the formation of a dual-cycle development pattern, it meets the specific requirements of high-quality development.
(Economic Daily-China Economic Net reporter Xiong Li)