China-Singapore Jingwei Client, August 9th (Feng Fang) Today (9th), the National Bureau of Statistics will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July.

Many institutions predict that the CPI will rise 0.8% year-on-year in July, and the increase will fall for the second consecutive month.

Source: National Bureau of Statistics website

July CPI increase may continue to fall

　　Entering 2021, the year-on-year increase in CPI changed from rising to falling in January due to the "wrong month of the Spring Festival", and then rising for four consecutive months, rising from a negative growth at the beginning of the year to 1.3% in May.

In June, the year-on-year increase in CPI turned to fall, reaching 1.1%.

For the upcoming July CPI data, Wind data shows that as of August 8, 18 institutions have made predictions, with an average forecast of 0.8%.

Among them, the predicted maximum value is 1%, and the predicted minimum value is 0.6%.

　　Institutions predict that due to factors such as the base effect, the CPI in July will fall year-on-year.

Industrial Securities pointed out that the price of high-frequency agricultural products has expanded year-on-year, while the price of high-frequency pork has stabilized. At the same time, considering the upstream price transmission, the CPI may be stronger than seasonality. Under the influence of the base factor, the CPI may fall slightly year-on-year.

Everbright Securities said that under the drag of the base effect, the CPI is expected to further fall to 0.7% year-on-year in July.

　　In terms of itemized terms, many institutions mentioned that pork prices have fallen year-on-year, and food items have dragged down CPI.

According to monitoring by the Ministry of Commerce, since the beginning of July, the national market price of edible agricultural products has gradually changed from a decline to an increase. However, the price of meat is generally on a downward trend, and the wholesale price of pork has continued to decline.

Specifically, from July 5th to 11th, July 12th to 18th, July 19th to 25th, July 26th to August 1st, the wholesale price of pork dropped by 0.6% from last week. , 0.9%, 0.6% and 1.1%.

　　CICC stated that food prices are still a drag. Affected by policy-based purchasing and storage expectations, live pig prices have stopped falling and rebounded, but pork prices have continued to fall, slowing year-on-year; seasonal vegetable supply has increased, and the average wholesale price of 28 kinds of vegetables has increased year-on-year. From positive to negative; the average wholesale prices of eggs and fruits slowed down year-on-year.

　　In addition, Shen Wan Hongyuan pointed out that since the beginning of this year, the supply of pork has continued to be released and pork prices have dropped significantly, which has stabilized the overall upward trend of CPI.

Huatai Securities also said that the expected slight fall in CPI is still due to the drag of food prices.

　　In terms of non-food items, the Center for National Economic Research of Peking University pointed out that non-food items of consumer goods may be transmitted by upstream raw material prices. The prices of non-food items such as tourism and catering are expected to increase the CPI. At the same time, it is expected to be affected by the increase in the weight of non-food items in 2021. Monthly non-food prices will continue to drive CPI to a certain extent.

New Jingwei Wan Keyi in the data map

How to go in the future?

　　Regarding the CPI trend in the next stage, China Merchants Securities pointed out that the CPI may reappear at a high peak in the fourth quarter, mainly supported by non-food items and carryover factors.

Recently, Henan Province, an important pork producing area, has experienced extreme rainfall, which has a greater impact on pork transportation, but the scope of impact on pig breeding is limited.

It is expected that pork prices will continue to run at a low level in the future, and there is limited room for the recovery of CPI food items.

　　In terms of non-food items, Shen Wanhongyuan said that the prices of industrial products continue to be high, especially the PPI, which is still at a high level in the third quarter. It is expected to continue to form a direct transmission to the prices of durable consumer goods in the CPI, but it is still necessary to continue to be vigilant in structural durability. The upward price of consumer goods directly restrains consumer demand.

The average year-on-year increase in CPI in the third and fourth quarters is expected to be around 1.1% and 1.7%, respectively, and it is expected to be around 1% for the whole year.

　　On July 15, at a press conference held by the Information Office of the State Council on the operation of the national economy in the first half of 2021, Liu Aihua, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics and Director of the General Statistics Department of the National Economic While pork prices remain stable, the overall upward pressure is not strong; the market supply of industrial consumer goods is generally adequate, and there is no basis for sustained and sharp increases in the prices of industrial consumer goods; considering the normalization of epidemic prevention and control, service prices are expected to maintain a slight increase .

　　Liu Aihua pointed out that, based on comprehensive judgment, there are foundations and conditions for maintaining a moderate price increase throughout the year, and there are also foundations and conditions for achieving the annual control target of about 3%.

(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

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