Stabilize good momentum and consolidate good results (New economic orientation · How to do work in the second half of the year)
The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on July 30 to analyze and study the current economic situation and plan economic work in the second half of the year.
How do you look at the current economic situation and how to do economic work in the second half of the year?
The reporter interviewed relevant departments and experts.
High-quality development achieved new results in the first half of the year
Since the beginning of this year, under the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, we have coordinated the overall domestic and international situations, coordinated epidemic prevention and control, and economic and social development, effectively implemented macroeconomic policies, sustained stable economic recovery, improved stability, and technological independence. Self-reliance has been actively promoted, reform and opening up has been intensified, people’s livelihood has been effectively guaranteed, high-quality development has achieved new results, and the overall social situation has remained stable.
The economy continues to grow steadily.
According to preliminary calculations, the gross domestic product in the first half of the year increased by 12.7% year-on-year, which was higher than the annual target of more than 6%.
Among them, the second quarter increased by 7.9% year-on-year, and the two-year average growth rate was 5.5%, which was 0.5% faster than the first quarter.
The motivation for innovation continues to increase.
In the first half of the year, major innovations emerged. The added value of high-tech manufacturing above designated size increased by 22.6% year-on-year, which was 6.7% faster than that of all industries above designated size; the added value of information transmission, software and information technology services increased by 20.3%, faster than the overall The economy grew by 7.6 percentage points, and new industries, new formats and new models were booming.
"The rapid economic growth of the'Three News' strongly supports the sustained and stable recovery of the current national economy and the accelerated construction of a new development pattern." said Guo Liyan, a researcher at the China Academy of Macroeconomics.
Coordinated development is more satisfactory.
In the first half of the year, the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth was 61.7%; the added value of manufacturing accounted for 27.9% of GDP, an increase of 1.3 percentage points from the same period last year; the ratio of per capita disposable income of urban and rural residents was 2.61, It decreased by 0.07 in the same period last year.
The pace of green transformation is accelerating.
According to preliminary calculations, in the first half of the year, energy consumption per unit of GDP fell by 2.0% year-on-year, and the proportion of clean energy consumption increased by 0.4%; the average PM2.5 concentration of 339 prefecture-level and above cities across the country fell by 2.9% year-on-year.
Reform and opening up have been advanced in depth.
"Faced with issues such as the imbalance in the economic recovery process, various regions and departments have deepened key reforms such as decentralization, regulation and service, enterprises, fiscal and taxation, and finance, and intensified economic restructuring, leading to the creation of new demand with high-quality supply, which has effectively promoted The development of the real economy has strengthened the endogenous driving force for development.” According to Ning Jizhe, director of the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first half of the year, my country’s daily average new market entities increased by more than 25% year-on-year; actual use of foreign capital increased by 28.7% year-on-year, "broad market The space and continuously optimized business environment make my country continue to be a hot spot for foreign investment."
The sense of gain among the masses continues to increase.
In the first half of the year, the national urban survey unemployment rate averaged 5.2%, which was lower than the expected target of around 5.5%; 6.98 million new jobs were created in urban areas, completing 63.5% of the annual target task.
"In the first half of the year, the supply-side structural reforms achieved remarkable results, and the strong support of foreign capital and foreign trade has highlighted the resilience of China's economy. In particular, the accelerated development of high-tech has produced an unexpected boost to the new momentum and structural optimization of China's economy." At the beginning of the "Fourth Five-Year Plan", the Chinese economy handed over a good answer sheet." said Liu Yuanchun, vice president of Renmin University of China.
Make overall plans for the convergence of macroeconomic policies this year and the next to keep the economy operating within a reasonable range
The Politburo meeting pointed out that to do a good job of economic work in the second half of the year, we must adhere to the general keynote of seeking progress while maintaining stability, fully, accurately and comprehensively implement the new development concept, deepen the supply-side structural reform, accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, and promote high-quality development. .
We must do a good job in the cross-cycle adjustment of macroeconomic policies, maintain the continuity, stability, and sustainability of macroeconomic policies, make overall plans for the convergence of macroeconomic policies this year and the next, and maintain economic operations within a reasonable range.
Doing a good job in the cross-cycle adjustment of macroeconomic policies is a realistic requirement for better adapting to changes in the external environment.
According to Yuan Da, Director of the Comprehensive Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, the current imbalance in the recovery of the world economy is still prominent.
In particular, affected by factors such as the gradual recovery of the economy and the obvious rise in inflation expectations, the next major developed economies may see changes in their fiscal and monetary policies.
Yuan Da said that no matter how the international economic situation and policy environment changes, we must base ourselves on the goal of "maintaining economic operations within a reasonable range", do a good job of coordinating and coordinating macroeconomic policies, and smoothing out possible economic fluctuations such as the base effect. Better stabilize expectations and increase confidence.
Doing a good job in the cross-cycle adjustment of macroeconomic policies is an urgent need to better solve the outstanding difficulties of domestic market players.
As the economy recovers and develops, the main difficulties faced by market entities will change. This requires maintaining the continuity, stability, and sustainability of macroeconomic policies, and at the same time, timely adjustments and precise implementation of policies based on actual needs.
Doing a good job in the cross-cycle adjustment of macroeconomic policies is also an inevitable pursuit to better resolve deep-seated contradictions and promote high-quality development.
It is the outstanding feature of my country's macroeconomic policies to work hard to solve the deep-seated contradictions and problems accumulated over the long-term based on the current situation and the long-term perspective.
"my country's economy continues to recover, with stability while strengthening, and stability while improving, and the macro policy objectives must also be shifted from early aid relief to promoting mid- and long-term high-quality development, making inter-cyclical adjustments, and assisting the smooth implementation of the "14th Five-Year" plan." Liu Yuanchun said.
"We must make good use of the window period when there is less pressure to stabilize growth, continue to concentrate our efforts on deepening the supply-side structural reforms, step up to eliminate the various obstacles and difficulties faced in building a new development pattern, and strive to promote high-quality development." Yuan Da Said that, in order to coordinate the macroeconomic policies this year and next year, it is necessary to focus on the following three specific policies in accordance with the changes in the economic situation this year and next year:
——A proactive fiscal policy must enhance policy effectiveness.
Better play the role of fiscal policy in benefiting enterprises and the people, implement various fiscal and tax policies that support the development of small and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households, and maintain the strength of helping enterprises to relieve their difficulties; help the grassroots to secure the bottom line of the "three guarantees" and make the basic people's livelihood Get more effective protection.
At the same time, reasonably grasp the progress of budgetary investment and local government bond issuance, and promote the formation of a physical workload at the end of this year and early next year.
-A prudent monetary policy must be steady.
Comprehensive use of a variety of monetary policy tools to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, and actively support the recovery and development of the real economy, especially small and medium-sized enterprises and difficult industries.
Continue to deepen the reform of interest rate marketization, and promote the steady decline of actual loan interest rates.
Guide financial institutions to increase their support for key areas and weak links such as small and micro enterprises, "agriculture, rural areas, and farmers", and manufacturing.
Deepen the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism and keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level.
"The overall positioning of a prudent monetary policy is to maintain a reasonable abundance of market liquidity." Liu Yuanchun analyzed that to enhance the autonomy of macro policies is to base on the domestic aggregate demand and supply, and the monetary policy should be coordinated with major projects and major plans. The landing, to give support.
-Efforts to keep the price level basically stable.
In view of the outstanding problem that the prices of some energy and raw materials are still at a high level, we will continue to do a good job in ensuring supply and stabilizing prices.
Strengthen the monitoring and early warning of the bulk commodity market, strengthen market regulation and price supervision.
Broaden the import channels of bulk commodities, give full play to the role of national reserve regulation, and use market-oriented methods to guide the upstream and downstream supply chains to stabilize the supply of raw materials and coordinate production and sales.
Closely track the impact of rising prices of bulk commodities and raw materials on small, medium and micro enterprises, and do a good job in responding to them.
Strengthen technological innovation and industrial chain supply chain resilience, and tap the potential of the domestic market
Accurately grasp the new changes and challenges of the development environment. my country's economy faces many difficulties and challenges in the recovery and development, but it has greater potential and more advantages. It is possible to consolidate the overall planning of epidemic prevention and control and economic society on the basis of the good momentum in the first half of the year. The results of development work.
Enhance development vitality with innovation, strengthen technological innovation and the resilience of the industrial chain and supply chain.
According to Guo Liyan's analysis, in the first half of the year, my country demonstrated more sufficient motivation in enhancing the independent controllability of the industrial supply chain and strengthening the chain with innovation.
"In the first half of the year, the added value of the high-tech manufacturing industry above designated size increased by 13.2% on average in two years, an increase of 0.9% over the first quarter; the output of industrial robots and integrated circuits increased by 69.8% and 48.1% respectively, reflecting that we are breaking through the bottleneck of the industrial chain and Promoting high-tech applications and other aspects have achieved phased results."
Provide endogenous motivation through reform, accelerate the implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand, and further smooth the domestic economic cycle.
The Politburo meeting proposed that it is necessary to tap the potential of the domestic market, support the accelerated development of new energy vehicles, accelerate the integration of the county’s rural e-commerce system and express logistics distribution system, accelerate the construction of major engineering projects in the "14th Five-Year Plan", and guide enterprises to increase Large technological transformation investment.
"The strategy of expanding domestic demand must be closely integrated with the deepening of supply-side structural reforms, and efforts should be made to improve the adaptability of the supply system, improve the ability of supply to adapt to lead the creation of new demand, and promote the formation of a strong domestic market." Guo Liyan gave an example to accelerate the development of new Energy vehicles are conducive to promoting the innovation of high-performance power batteries and on-board chips, stimulating investment in national charging pile infrastructure, supporting the explosion of new growth points in automobile consumption, and promoting energy conservation and carbon reduction in key industries in an orderly manner. It is an important task to achieve four goals. hand.
Liu Yuanchun believes that the key to enhancing the stamina of consumption recovery and development lies in intensifying the reform of income distribution and realizing the structural optimization of household consumption and savings rates.
Promote green development through transformation, and do a good job of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality in an orderly manner.
The Politburo meeting of the Central Committee proposed to introduce as soon as possible the carbon peaking action plan by 2030, adhere to the national chess game, correct the campaign-style "carbon reduction", and resolutely curb the blind development of the "two highs" project.
"Correcting the campaign-style'carbon reduction' and avoiding the'one size fits all' production stoppage and production restriction will help curb the trend of excessively rapid rise in commodity prices, promote the return of energy and raw material prices to the fundamentals of supply and demand, strengthen the effect of maintaining supply and stabilizing prices, and alleviate the centralization The cost pressure of downstream small and medium-sized enterprises." Guo Liyan said.
Do a good job in ensuring people’s livelihood and safe production, and tighten the strings of safe production and public safety
A few days ago, the World Bank released the semi-annual "China Economic Bulletin", and it is expected that China's economic growth will reach 8.5% in 2021; the International Monetary Fund will increase China's economic growth rate by 0.1 percentage point to 5.7% in 2022, showing that the international community Optimistic expectations for China's economic growth.
Good expectations are inseparable from our country's always coordinating the two major issues of development and security.
In the first half of the year, under the circumstances of high international food prices, my country’s summer grains achieved the “18 consecutive harvests” to ensure that the “rice bowls” are firmly in their hands; 70% of the industrial industry profits exceeded the level before the epidemic; the service industry business activity index continued 16 months above the threshold.
"In the first half of the year, while accelerating the process of economic recovery and development, we kept the bottom line of development security. Food security, energy security, and industrial chain supply chain security guarantees are strong." Guo Liyan said.
Safety and development are the two wings of one body and the two wheels of driving.
Coordinating the two major issues of development and safety is of great significance to better promoting high-quality development in a complex environment.
The Politburo meeting of the Central Committee proposed that “we must prevent and defuse risks in key areas”, “ensure people’s livelihood and safe production”, and “tighten the strings of safe production and public safety”.
"Improving people's livelihood and well-being is the fundamental goal of development." Yuan Da said that since the beginning of this year, all regions and departments have worked hard to solve problems for the people, but we must also be aware that there are still some outstanding problems in the areas of people's livelihood and safety production.
For example, difficulties in employment and recruitment coexist, and employment pressure for young people, especially college graduates, is increasing; the quality of basic public services such as pension, childcare, education, and medical care needs to be further improved; the natural disaster risk situation is severe and complex, and risks in safety production cannot be ignored. , There are still some weak links in the import of epidemic prevention.
Liu Yuanchun believes that stabilizing employment is still the focus of economic work in the second half of the year.
"At present, the structural contradictions in employment are prominent, and the macro policy should still adhere to the principle of employment priority." He suggested that the employment environment and labor security of the manufacturing industry should be improved in terms of legislation, subsidies, and taxation to increase the attractiveness of the manufacturing industry to young people.
"In response to outstanding issues in the protection of people's livelihood and safety in production, the Party Central Committee has made clear arrangements and put forward a series of practical and effective measures." Yuan Da said that in the second half of the year, it is necessary to further strengthen basic people's livelihood protection and continue to improve the level of public services. .
At the same time, it is necessary to tighten the string of production safety and public safety, pay close attention to various flood prevention and disaster relief measures, and make unremitting efforts to prevent and control the new crown pneumonia epidemic to ensure the safety of people's lives and property, and continuously improve the people's sense of happiness sense of security.
Planning for this edition: Wang Jun, Wu Yan, Jiang Xuejie, Lu Li, Guo Xueyan
Layout design: Cai Huawei
Our reporter Lu Yanan and Li Xinping