The three major PMI indexes have been in the expansion range for seventeen consecutive months-
China's economy continues to recover
Our reporter Xiong Li
On July 31, the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the China Purchasing Managers Index for July, showing that the three major PMI indexes have fallen, but they have remained in the expansion range for 17 consecutive months.
In July, China’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index was 50.4%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month; the non-manufacturing business activity index was 53.3%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, of which the service industry’s business activity index was 52.5%. Last month, it rose by 0.2 percentage point; the comprehensive PMI output index was 52.4%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage point from the previous month.
Multiple factors affect manufacturing expansion
Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician at the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that in July, some companies entered the equipment maintenance period. Coupled with the impact of extreme weather such as high temperature and flood disasters in some areas, the expansion of the manufacturing industry has weakened compared with the previous month, but most industries have PMIs. Still maintained in the boom zone.
In July, overall manufacturing activities and market demand slowed down.
The production index and the new order index were 51.0% and 50.9%, respectively, 0.9 and 0.6 percentage points lower than the previous month.
From the perspective of the industry, the two indexes of papermaking, printing, cultural, educational, sports and entertainment products, railway, ship, aerospace equipment, computer communication electronic equipment and instrumentation are all above 55%. The production and operation of enterprises are relatively active, and the industry's growth momentum is strong; The two indexes of high energy-consuming industries such as petroleum, coal and other fuel processing, chemical raw materials and chemical products, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing are below the threshold, and production and demand have decreased.
In July, the prosperity of imports and exports dropped slightly.
The new export order index and import index were 47.7% and 49.4%, respectively, down 0.4 and 0.3 percentage points from the previous month.
In addition, the prosperity of large-scale enterprises remained stable, while small and medium-sized enterprises declined.
Wen Tao, an expert from the China Logistics Information Center, believes that heavy rainfall and typhoons in eastern and central my country this month have had an impact on many aspects of economic operations.
First, due to continued extreme weather, which has a greater impact on production and transportation, the supply and demand of the basic raw material industry has slowed down significantly; second, due to extreme weather affecting the lives of residents, market uncertainty has increased, thereby affecting traders' willingness to order.
Affected by this, the proportion of enterprises in the manufacturing industry that reflected insufficient market demand in July reached 36.4%, a new high for the year; third, market prices have accelerated.
Due to the tight supply of some basic raw materials and increased difficulty in logistics and transportation, the prices of raw materials, which had slowed down, rebounded again.
Data show that the purchase price index and ex-factory price index of major raw materials in July were 62.9% and 53.8%, respectively, 1.7 and 2.4 percentage points higher than the previous month.
Everbright Bank analyst Zhou Maohua believes that the pace of manufacturing PMI expansion in July has slowed slightly, in line with expectations, mainly due to extreme weather, repeated global epidemics, excessive price increases in bulk commodities, and shortages of automotive chips.
The boom of the service industry has risen
In July, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 53.3%, slightly lower than 0.2 percentage points last month, and was still above the threshold, indicating that the non-manufacturing industry as a whole maintained a steady expansion.
Cai Jin, vice chairman of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, said that the business activity index in July fell slightly by 0.2 percentage points, and remained stable at more than 53% for two consecutive months; the new order index rebounded slightly by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month for two consecutive months. Above 49%.
Changes in supply and demand show that the growth of non-manufacturing industries is slowing down and stabilizing.
Driven by summer consumption and other factors, the business activity index of the service industry rose by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month to 52.5%, showing the recovery of the service industry.
From the perspective of industry conditions, among the 21 industries surveyed, 18 industries have business activity indexes in the expansion range, an increase of 6 from the previous month, and the service industry's prosperity has expanded.
Among them, the business activity index of industries such as air transportation, accommodation, catering, ecological protection and environmental governance all increased by more than 10 percentage points from the previous month. The market demand of the industry has been released faster, and the total business volume has grown rapidly.
Affected by unfavorable weather factors such as high temperature and rain, floods, etc., the business activity index of the construction industry fell to 57.5%, which was 2.6 percentage points lower than last month, reflecting the slowdown in construction production growth.
Among them, the commercial activity index of the civil engineering and construction industry, which is dominated by outdoor operations, fell more significantly, 4.9 percentage points lower than last month, which was 54.4%.
"On the whole, the growth rate of non-manufacturing industry has obviously fallen behind last month, and the trend this month is basically stable. The overall trend is slowing down and stabilizing." said Wu Wei, an expert from China Logistics Information Center.
The short-term decline does not change the long-term positive trend
In the survey, some small and medium-sized manufacturing companies reported that the recent increase in raw material costs, the reduction in orders, and the increased pressure on payment collection have been prominent, and the production and operation of their companies have been under pressure.
Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Development Research Center of the State Council, believes that the PMI index continued to fall in July, but remained above the line of prosperity and decline, indicating that the economy continued to maintain its recovery momentum, but the momentum was further slowing down.
The order index has dropped across the board, and the number of companies that reflect insufficient demand has increased, indicating that the problem of lagging domestic demand recovery has further emerged; future production and operation expectations, procurement volume, raw material inventory and other indexes have fallen, indicating that companies are cautious in their expectations of the future market.
"The index has fallen this month, and short-term factors have a certain impact, but the economy as a whole has remained stable and the basis for good operation has not changed." Wen Tao believes that combined with the manufacturing PMI trend from January to July, there have been more positive changes in the Chinese economy. , The long-term economic development has a good foundation.
First, the new development pattern of my country's economy with the domestic large cycle as the main body and the mutual promotion of the domestic and international dual cycles continues to advance, and the leading role of the domestic market in the national economy is continuously strengthened; second, the momentum of high-quality economic development is good, and the growth rate of high-end manufacturing is further increased. Accelerated, the contribution to economic growth continued to rise; third, with the support of policies, the growth rate of small and micro enterprises accelerated and the average PMI of small and micro enterprises from January to July was higher than the average in the second half of last year.
According to Wen Tao’s judgment, it is expected that in the second half of the year, without major changes in external factors such as the epidemic and weather, my country’s domestic demand potential will be released faster, driving market supply and demand to continue to rise, industrial structure will continue to be optimized, and employment will continue to be stable. Increasing trend.
Xiong Li