Regarding the growth rate of GDP = gross domestic product for the three months until June, which will be announced this month, there are almost all forecasts from private think tanks.
While it is expected to be positive for the first time in two quarters against the backdrop of the recovery of overseas economies, there are many views that the recovery is lacking in strength due to sluggish personal consumption.
The Cabinet Office will announce the GDP from April to June this year on August 16th, two weeks later.
Prior to this, forecasts for private think tanks are almost complete, and 8 out of 10 companies expect the real growth rate excluding price fluctuations to be positive for the first time in two quarters.
Regarding the reasons, each company cites that exports are strong against the backdrop of the recovery of overseas economies and that corporate capital investment is expected to increase.
However, the forecast for growth rate was only + 1.8% on an annualized basis, even at the highest point, due to sluggish personal consumption, which accounts for more than half of GDP.
Given that the growth rate of GDP from January to March was minus 3.9% on an annualized basis, there are many views that the recovery is lacking in strength.
On the other hand, 2 out of 10 companies predicted that it would be negative for the second consecutive quarter, albeit slightly.
Overseas, where vaccination is progressing, the annualized growth rate of GDP from April to June, which has already been announced, has reached + 8.3% in 19 euro area countries and + 6.5% in the United States. It has also been pointed out that the delay in the recovery of the Japanese economy will become clearer than in Europe and the United States.