China News Service, July 31. According to the website of the National Bureau of Statistics, the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the China Purchasing Manager Index on the 31st.
According to Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician at the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, on the whole, my country's economy continues to maintain an expansion trend, but the pace has slowed down.
In July, China’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index was 50.4%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month; the non-manufacturing business activity index was 53.3%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, of which the service industry’s business activity index was 52.5%. Last month, it rose by 0.2 percentage point; the comprehensive PMI output index was 52.4%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage point from the previous month.
The prosperity level of manufacturing purchasing managers' index has fallen
In July, some enterprises intensively entered the equipment maintenance period. Coupled with the impact of extreme weather such as high temperature and flood disasters in some areas, the expansion of the manufacturing industry weakened compared with the previous month, but the PMI of most industries remained within the boom range.
Main features of this month:
First, supply and demand have slowed down to varying degrees.
The production index and the new order index were 51.0% and 50.9%, respectively, down 0.9 and 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. Manufacturing production activities and market demand have generally slowed down.
From the perspective of the industry, the two indexes of papermaking, printing, cultural, educational, sports, and entertainment products, railway, ship, aerospace equipment, computer communications, electronic equipment, and instrumentation are both in the high-prosperity range of more than 55.0%. The production and operation of enterprises are relatively active, and the industry is growing. Power is strong; both indexes of high energy-consuming industries such as petroleum, coal and other fuel processing, chemical raw materials and chemical products, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing are below the critical point, and production and demand have decreased.
Second, the prosperity of imports and exports dropped slightly.
The new export order index and import index were 47.7% and 49.4%, respectively, down 0.4 and 0.3 percentage points from the previous month.
From the perspective of the industry, the new export order index and import index of industries such as agricultural and sideline food processing, food and alcoholic beverage refined tea, textiles, computer communication electronic equipment, and instrumentation are all in the boom range, and foreign orders and raw material imports have increased. The two indexes of wood processing and furniture, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, special equipment and other industries are all in the contraction range, and the overall prosperity of imports and exports is weak.
Third, the price index has rebounded.
The purchase price index and ex-factory price index of major raw materials were 62.9% and 53.8%, respectively, 1.7 and 2.4 percentage points higher than the previous month.
From the perspective of the purchase price index of major raw materials, the purchasing cost of manufacturing has generally risen, of which petroleum, coal and other fuel processing, chemical raw materials and chemical products, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries are all higher than 70.0%.
Judging from the ex-factory price index, the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry is 50.3%, slightly higher than the critical point, indicating that the ex-factory prices of products in the industry have basically remained stable, and the effect of the "guaranteed supply and stable price" policy in the iron and steel industry has continued to appear.
Fourth, the development trend of new kinetic energy is good.
Since the beginning of this year, the PMI of high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing has always been higher than that of the overall manufacturing industry. This month, it has risen steadily, reaching 55.0% and 52.4%, respectively, which are 0.3 and 0.9 percentage points higher than last month, reflecting that high-end manufacturing continues to be relatively fast. develop.
Among them, the PMI of industries such as railway, ship, aerospace equipment, electrical machinery and equipment, computer communications and electronic equipment, and instrumentation all increased by 1.0 percentage point or more from the previous month, and industry expansion accelerated.
Fifth, the prosperity of large-scale enterprises remained stable, while small and medium-sized enterprises declined.
The PMI of large enterprises was 51.7%, the same as last month, and 1.3 percentage points higher than the overall manufacturing industry.
The PMI of small and medium enterprises was 50.0% and 47.8%, respectively, 0.8 and 1.3 percentage points lower than last month.
Some small and medium-sized enterprises in the survey reported that the recent increase in raw material costs, the reduction in orders, and the increased pressure on payment collection have been prominent, and the production and operation of the enterprises have been under pressure.
Non-manufacturing business activity index fell slightly
In July, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 53.3%, slightly lower than 0.2 percentage points last month, and was still above the threshold, indicating that the non-manufacturing industry as a whole maintained a steady expansion.
The prosperity of the service industry has increased.
Driven by summer consumption and other factors, the business activity index of the service industry rose by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month to 52.5%, showing the recovery of the service industry.
From the perspective of industry conditions, among the 21 industries surveyed, 18 industries have business activity indexes in the expansion range, an increase of 6 from the previous month, and the service industry's prosperity has expanded.
Among them, the business activity index of industries such as air transportation, accommodation, catering, ecological protection and environmental governance all increased by more than 10.0 percentage points from the previous month. The release of industry market demand accelerated, and the total business volume increased rapidly; the currency, finance, insurance and other industries fell by more than 9.0 Percentage points, the expansion of industry operations has slowed down.
In terms of market expectations, the business activity expectation index is 60.1%, which has been in the high level of above 60.0% for 6 consecutive months. Service industry companies continue to be optimistic about the near-term business development prospects, including railway transportation, air transportation, postal express, telecommunications, broadcasting and television. The business activity expected index of satellite transmission services, Internet software and information technology services is above 64.0%, which is higher than the overall service industry. Related industries are expected to continue to maintain a rapid growth trend.
The construction industry recovered from a high level.
Affected by unfavorable weather factors such as high temperature and rain, floods, etc., the business activity index of the construction industry fell to 57.5%, which was 2.6 percentage points lower than last month, reflecting the slowdown in construction production growth.
Among them, the commercial activity index of the civil engineering and construction industry, which is dominated by outdoor operations, fell more significantly, 4.9 percentage points lower than last month, which was 54.4%.
From the perspective of enterprise employment and market expectations, the employment index and business activity expectations index were 52.1% and 64.0%, respectively, up 1.8 and 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the demand for labor in the construction industry continues to grow, and companies have confidence in the future development of the industry. Enhanced.
The expansion of the comprehensive PMI output index has slowed
In July, the comprehensive PMI output index was 52.4%, 0.5 percentage points lower than last month, indicating that the expansion of production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises has slowed down.
The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index that make up the comprehensive PMI output index are 51.0% and 53.3%, respectively.