China Economic Industry Prosperity Index released——
The second quarter is still at a relatively high level in the past two years
Economic Daily, China Economic Trend Research Institute, National Bureau of Statistics, China Economic Prosperity Monitoring Center
The "China Economic Industry Prosperity Index (Second Quarter 2021) Report" was released today.
In the second quarter, the gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 7.9% year-on-year, 1.3% month-on-month, and an average growth rate of 5.5% over the two years.
In the context of the continuous recovery of the domestic economy and the gradual recovery of the world economy, my country’s industrial production has grown steadily, corporate efficiency has continued to improve, investment confidence has gradually recovered, and corporate employment has maintained a moderate growth.
At the same time, new kinetic energy continues to grow, new industries, new business forms and new models continue to emerge, the industrial structure continues to be optimized, and the industrial economy is showing a steady and positive trend.
Endogenous power enhances new kinetic energy and continues to cultivate and grow
With the increase in the global COVID-19 vaccination rate, domestic and foreign market demand continues to recover, coupled with my country's stable industrial chain to effectively make up for the international supply gap, international orders continue to concentrate.
In this context, the industrial economy is steadily recovering.
However, due to the rise in the year-on-year base, the industrial climate index has fallen.
The data shows that the China Economic Industry Prosperity Index in the second quarter was 104.9, down 4.6 points from the previous quarter, but 4.4 and 5.5 points higher than the same period in 2018 and 2019 before the epidemic.
The six indicators that make up the CEIBS Industrial Prosperity Index have all declined to varying degrees. Among them, the growth rate of production, sales, export, efficiency, and investment has fallen relatively greatly, but still shows a relatively rapid growth trend, and the rate of labor growth has fallen relatively sharply. Small, continue to show a moderate expansion trend.
Among the 11 specific industries monitored by the China Economic Industry Prosperity Index, the business climate of the industry showed a divergent trend.
From the perspective of high-tech industries such as pharmaceuticals and IT equipment manufacturing, the pharmaceutical industry continues to be prosperous. Although affected by the year-on-year base increase, the prosperity index dropped by 5.2 points from the previous quarter, but it was 5.7, higher than the same period in 2018 and 2019, respectively. 7.2 points.
Thanks to the in-depth advancement of the manufacturing power and digital China strategy, the acceleration of infrastructure construction and data platform construction around 5G, Internet of Things and other new-generation information technologies, the IT equipment manufacturing industry is stable, although the base number has risen, it has dropped by 4.3 points. , But 2.3 points higher than the level in the same period in 2019.
From the perspective of consumer industries such as automobiles and clothing, in the context of sustained and stable economic recovery, the national per capita disposable income increased by an average of 7.4% in two years from January to June, which provided strong support for household consumption.
Under the combined effect of positive factors such as improving consumption supporting facilities, removing unreasonable consumption restrictions, and increasing the supply of high-quality consumer goods, the consumer goods industry's prosperity situation has continued to improve.
Affected by the shortage of chip supply and the switching period of emission standard upgrades, coupled with a high year-on-year base, the automotive industry prosperity index in the second quarter fell by 3.4 points compared with the first quarter, but it was still higher than the level of the same period in 2019.
Thanks to factors such as accelerating income growth of domestic residents and increasing demand for foreign orders, the apparel industry's prosperity has steadily recovered. The apparel industry's prosperity index in the second quarter was 100.7, 2.5 points higher than the level of the same period in 2019.
From the perspective of production, the growth rate of industrial production has slowed down due to the increase in the base number. From January to June, the national industrial added value above designated size increased by 15.9% year-on-year, which was 8.6 percentage points lower than the growth rate from January to March.
In fact, with the continuous recovery of domestic and international market demand, industrial production has maintained a steady growth trend. Data shows that the average growth rate of the added value of the industrial enterprises above designated size in the country for two years is 7%, which is 0.2% faster than the first quarter, and the growth rate is slightly higher. At the pre-epidemic level.
Among the 41 major industrial sectors, the demand for high-tech products and the demand for equipment upgrades have played an important role in driving and leading the stable recovery of industrial production.
Data show that from January to June, the added value of equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing increased by 22.8% and 22.6% respectively year-on-year, which were 6.9 and 6.7 percentage points higher than the growth rate of all industrial production above designated size; the two-year average growth rate was respectively 11.0%, 13.2%, the growth rate both rebounded from the first quarter.
Among them, the electrical machinery, metal products, general equipment, special equipment and electronics industries have grown rapidly, with growth rates of 29.4%, 28.2%, 24.3%, 20.1%, and 19.8%, respectively. The two-year average growth rate was above 10%.
From the perspective of products, the output of integrated circuits, optoelectronic devices, electronic components, industrial robots, solar cells, electronic computers and other electronic products and emerging products have grown rapidly.
Guaranteed supply and stable price, the price increase of industrial products dropped
With the recovery of the world economy, many countries have adopted quantitative easing policies in response to the impact of the epidemic, and multiple factors have superimposed on the increase in international commodity prices.
As the policy of ensuring supply and price stabilization took effect, the relationship between supply and demand in the market tended to improve. The prosperity indexes of petroleum, steel, nonferrous metals and other industries continued to rise, while the prosperity indexes of coal, power, chemical, and non-metallic mineral products declined slightly.
The rapid rise in prices of domestic energy and raw materials has been suppressed, and the ex-factory prices of industrial products have both declined month-on-month and year-on-year.
In the second quarter, the producer prices of industrial producers rose by 0.9%, 1.6% and 0.3% from the previous month respectively, and rose by 6.8%, 9.0% and 8.8% respectively year-on-year.
From the perspective of composition, the ex-factory prices of production materials in the second quarter increased by 1.2%, 2.1%, and 0.5%, respectively, and declined. The price of subsistence increased by 0.1%, 0.1%, and 0.2%, respectively, from a moderate increase. Turned to a moderate decline.
In terms of industries, by implementing supervision and urging key coal enterprises to increase production and supply under the premise of ensuring safety, increase export tariffs on some steel products, increase the supply of national reserves such as copper, aluminum, and zinc, and strengthen the two-way adjustment of the supply and demand of coal, steel, and non-ferrous commodities. After a series of policy measures, the prices of related products may fall back or fall.
From April to June, the ex-factory prices of coal mining and washing industries increased by 2.8%, 10.6%, and 5.2% respectively. The ex-factory prices of industrial products in steel, non-ferrous metals and other industries changed from continuous increases to declines, and ferrous metal smelting and rolling increased. Industrial prices rose 5.6%, 6.4% and fell 0.7% respectively month-on-month; prices of non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries rose 2.1%, 4.4% and fell 0.1% respectively month-on-month.
In the context of the decline in product prices in steel, non-ferrous metals and other industries, the price increase of the upstream ore mining and dressing industry has dropped. From April to June, the price of ferrous metal mining and dressing industry increased by 2.2%, 7.4% and 5.4% respectively. , Non-ferrous metal mining and dressing industry rose 1.4%, 2.2% and 1.6% respectively.
Under the influence of factors such as the gradual recovery of the global economy and the continuous production restrictions of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, international crude oil prices have continued to rise, driving the prices of domestic petrochemical products to continue to rise.
From April to June, the prices of the oil and natural gas extraction industry increased by 0.4%, 1.7%, and 2.5% respectively from the previous month. The prices of the petroleum, coal and other fuel processing industries decreased by 0.9%, increased by 4.4%, and increased by 3.1%, respectively. Chemical raw materials and chemical The prices of the product manufacturing industry rose by 2.1%, 1.8% and 0.2% respectively from the previous month.
It is worth noting that the major oil-producing countries have recently reached an agreement on an increase in production plan, and the pressure of rising oil prices is expected to ease.
Internal and external demand improved, corporate sales rebounded significantly
The data shows that from January to May, the operating income of industrial enterprises increased by 30.5% year-on-year, down 15 percentage points from the previous quarter; the two-year average growth rate was 9.9%, 1.4 percentage points faster than the two-year average growth rate from January to March. Corporate sales have improved.
From the demand side, effective epidemic prevention and control and the increase in the coverage of the new crown vaccine have promoted the gradual release of the domestic market demand potential. From the price perspective, the rise in industrial product prices has stimulated enterprises to resume production and increase supply.
Among the 41 major industrial sectors, the operating income of the mining industry and auxiliary activities was lower than the level of the same period last year, and the operating income of the remaining 40 industries achieved year-on-year growth.
Among them, the accelerated promotion of new crown vaccination and the large foreign demand for epidemic prevention and control materials and vaccination have driven the rapid growth of the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry's operating income. The two-year average growth rate was 10.8%, which was 0.9 higher than the average growth rate of industries above designated size. Percentage points.
The operating income of general equipment, special equipment, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, IT equipment manufacturing and other equipment, and high-tech industries closely related to the construction of "two new and one heavy" construction and industrial transformation and upgrading needs to maintain a rapid growth trend, increasing respectively from January to May 32.3%, 30%, 40.8% and 25.8%, the two-year average growth rate remained above double digits.
As the global economy picks up, the prices of international bulk commodities represented by oil continue to rise, and the sales of my country's energy and raw material industries continue to improve.
The data shows that from January to May, the two-year average growth rate of sales revenue in the petroleum, chemical, steel, and non-ferrous industries was 6.1%, 9.7%, 19.7%, and 16.6%, respectively, which was higher than the cumulative growth rate from January to March by 2 2.3, 3.4 and 3.4 percentage points.
The economic recovery also led to continuous improvement in demand for consumer goods. From January to May, the operating income of the textile and apparel and apparel industries increased by 13.3% year-on-year, and the two-year average decline continued to narrow.
From the perspective of foreign demand, the gradual recovery of the world’s major economies has led to the growth of my country’s export demand, coupled with the continuous release of foreign trade policy dividends, the free trade pilot zone, Hainan Free Trade Port and other high-level opening platforms have grown rapidly, cross-border e-commerce and other foreign trade The advantages of new business formats and new models have been highlighted, and export space has been further expanded.
From January to June, the total value of my country's import and export of goods trade was 18.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.1%, both hitting record highs.
Among them, exports were 9.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 28.1%.
While exports maintained relatively rapid growth, the trade structure was further optimized.
From January to June, my country's general trade exports were 6 trillion yuan, an increase of 32.1%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points over the same period last year.
From January to June, my country’s imports and exports to countries along the “Belt and Road” were 5.4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.5%, of which exports were 3 trillion yuan, an increase of 29.1%.
Under the influence of factors such as the recovery of market demand, the rise in industrial product prices, and the accelerated implementation of tax and fee reduction policies, corporate profits have continued to improve.
From January to May, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size across the country increased by 83.4% year-on-year, with an average increase of 21.7% over the two years, which was significantly better than the same period in 2018 and 2019.
In terms of different industries, among 41 major industrial sectors, 39 industries have increased their total profits year-on-year.
Among them, the coal, petroleum, steel, non-ferrous metals and other industries whose prices have risen rapidly have increased their profits.
Data show that from January to May, the total profit of the coal mining industry increased by 1.1 times year-on-year, the oil and gas mining industry increased by 2.7 times, the chemical fiber manufacturing industry increased by 7.4 times, and the non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 3.9 times.
The profit growth rate of high-tech industries such as pharmaceuticals and IT manufacturing has slowed down due to the influence of the year-on-year base, but from the two-year average, they have increased by 34.5% and 41.8%, respectively, and are still at a relatively rapid growth level.
The profit growth of the equipment manufacturing industry is also better than the same period in 2019.
The profits of consumer goods industries such as textiles and apparel, cultural, sports and entertainment products have shown a continuous improvement trend.
Optimistic expectations to improve economic performance
In order to alleviate the upward pressure on the prices of upstream energy and raw materials, and promote the recovery and vitality of micro entities, especially small, medium and micro enterprises, my country strives to maintain the continuity and stability of macro policies while enhancing the forward-looking and preciseness.
The continuous release of policy dividends, especially the "14th Five-Year" High-quality and High-Efficiency Medical and Health Service System Construction Implementation Plan, "The "14th Five-Year" Circular Economy Development Plan" and a series of planning plans have been released and implemented, and a number of key tasks and major projects The construction of the project started, the investment confidence of entrepreneurs continued to increase, and the growth of corporate investment continued to accelerate.
From January to June, the national investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) was 25.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.6%; the two-year average growth rate was 4.4%, 1.5 percentage points faster than that from January to March.
High-tech industries and people’s livelihood shortcomings are still hot spots for market investment.
From January to June, investment in high-tech industries increased by 23.5% year-on-year, and the two-year average growth rate was 14.6%, which was 4.7 percentage points faster than the first quarter; investment in the social sector increased by 16.4% year-on-year, and the two-year average growth rate was 10.7%, compared with the previous year. The quarterly acceleration was 1.1 percentage points.
With the acceleration of investment growth in the whole society, industrial investment has continued to recover.
From January to June, industrial investment increased by 16.2% year-on-year, and the two-year average growth rate was 3.7%, which was 3.3 percentage points faster than that from January to March.
Among them, the two-year average growth rate of manufacturing investment has changed from a year-on-year decline to a year-on-year growth in April, and the growth rate has continued to rise; investment in the power, heating, gas, and water production and supply industries maintained double-digit growth.
With the gradual improvement of corporate efficiency, continued investment recovery and the global economic recovery, market expectations have gradually improved.
International organizations are generally optimistic about the recovery of my country's economic stability.
Optimistic expectations drove enterprise orders to continue to expand. From April to June, the new order index in my country's manufacturing purchasing manager index was 52%, 51.3% and 51.5%, which continued to be above the boundary between prosperity and decline.
The World Bank predicts that the global economy will grow by 5.6% in 2021, an increase of 1.6 percentage points from the January forecast. The recovery of the global economy provides strong support for the steady growth of my country’s exports.
The industrial economy is operating steadily, strengthening and improving, but it must be noted that the current global situation of the prevention and control of the new crown pneumonia epidemic is still severe, with more external instability and uncertain factors.
The rise in the prices of bulk commodities such as energy and raw materials has put pressure on downstream industries, especially the production and operation of small, medium and micro enterprises. The supply chain of the industrial chain still faces many "blocking points" and "breakpoints", especially the shortage of chips for the automobile and other industries. Development has an adverse effect.
Overall, market confidence has gradually increased, market expectations have stabilized and improved, and the industrial economy has become more resilient to a steady recovery. In the second half of the year, as the low base effect caused by the impact of the epidemic weakens, economic growth may slow down. In the face of difficulties and challenges, we must take high-quality development as the guide, based on the new development stage, implement new development concepts, build a new development pattern, in-depth implementation of manufacturing power, network power, and digital China strategies, and accelerate the promotion of green and low-carbon transformation of manufacturing. Innovative applications of intelligent manufacturing engineering and the industrial Internet will accelerate the promotion of industrial infrastructure reengineering projects and industrial chain supply chain replenishment actions, and multiple measures will be taken to promote the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry and continue to move towards the mid-to-high end of the value chain.