Education and training stocks and real estate stocks are among the top decliners, and investors should pay attention to half-year performance.
Hong Kong stocks and A shares plunged on July 26 and 27 consecutively. Among them, the total market value of A shares lost 4.3 trillion yuan in two trading days.
This time the market’s in-depth adjustment presents two major characteristics: one is that after the Chinese concept stocks plummeted last Friday, the sell-off of foreign investors caused Hong Kong stocks to take the lead in an in-depth adjustment, which caused a comprehensive drag on A-shares; Focus on education and training stocks and real estate that have been suppressed by policies.
Where will the market go after the crash?
What about investors?
Market participants believe that risk aversion in the short-term market has increased, and stock valuations in some sectors are also at a relatively high level.
However, after full adjustments, the valuation of A-share traditional industries is already very low and there is a certain margin of safety. Investors should pay attention to half-year performance.
For some well-adjusted consumer stocks, especially those with a high return on equity (ROE), some public equity investors have adopted the approach of "buying more as they fall."
Hong Kong stocks led the decline
"Every year you say that the valuation of Hong Kong stocks is low, but why haven't they risen so much? It has always been at a level of more than 20,000 points." This is one of the most frequently asked questions by Hong Kong stock fund managers during roadshows.
And this time Hong Kong stocks even played a leading role.
On the 27th, the market was hit again.
The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 2.49%, fell 3400 points, and closed at 3,381.18 points. The popular sectors in the previous period were all recalled. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges were trading at 1,534.1 billion yuan, and the net sales of northbound funds were 4.172 billion yuan.
On the disk, the sharp drop in Hong Kong stocks is an important reason for the market adjustment. The Hang Seng Technology Index fell by more than 9% that day, and the Hang Seng Index fell by more than 4% for two consecutive days.
A well-known fund manager in Shenzhen told China Business News that the Hong Kong stock market is an optional rather than a mandatory investment market for domestic and global funds. Once there are some policy disturbances, it will naturally become a "withdrawal". machine".
On the other hand, the full participation of technology stocks is a matter for Hong Kong stocks after 2018. It will still take some time for these companies to go from raising funds to the full release of performance to finally joining the Hang Seng Index.
Wen Tianna, the non-executive chairman of Broad Financial Holdings, said that the current weakness in the market continues the performance of the past two weeks. First of all, the continuous tightening of industry supervision has impacted the valuation of many industries, and many sensitive industries cannot be completely profitable. In command, investors need to reassess, and it is estimated that the transformation will take a certain amount of time.
Anti-monopoly policies have adversely affected the valuation of many Internet companies, and some real estate stocks were previously affected by liquidity factors, and the superposition of different factors caused the Hang Seng Index to drop by a thousand points.
In the future, investors need to pay more attention to the performance of half-year performance.
The Great Wall Fund said that in the past few days, the track of the new energy automobile industry chain, which was previously highly enthusiastic, has been in continuous correction.
On the macro level, the recent superposition of multiple factors has led to large fluctuations in market sentiment.
The introduction of strong regulatory policies in the education and training industry has caused a severe setback for China's concept stocks, and overseas funds have intensified their concerns about policy risks; partial repetitions of the domestic epidemic have led to fluctuations in investor sentiment on the market; external uncertainties have also caused market sentiment instability .
From education to real estate
The hardest-hit areas where A-shares plummeted in the past two days are also mainly concentrated in education and training stocks and real estate.
Li Lifeng, a strategy analyst at West China Securities, said that the Hang Seng Technology Index has undergone significant adjustments for two consecutive days, and the sentiment of A-shares has also been affected; the implementation of regulatory policies in some areas may lead to uncertainty in the main business operations of some industry companies, such as the recent "double reduction" The policy was officially implemented, the real estate control policy was further tightened, anti-monopoly and the prevention of disorderly expansion of capital were strengthened; the early-stage growth track transaction was too concentrated, and the floating profit was settled, which triggered a phased adjustment.
Recently, the "Opinions on Further Reducing the Work Burden of Students in Compulsory Education and the Burden of Off-campus Training" (hereinafter referred to as the "double reduction" policy) was officially implemented, clarifying that all discipline-type training institutions shall not be listed for financing, and capitalization operations are strictly prohibited; minors are strictly enforced The relevant provisions of the Human Protection Law shall not occupy statutory holidays, rest days, and winter and summer vacations to organize discipline training.
The head of the investment department of a large investment institution told China Business News that the overseas Chinese concept stocks have undergone substantial adjustments last Friday, and foreign investors are worried that domestic A-share real estate, medicine, games and other industries will be affected by similar policies.
On July 26, a piece of news that "the ratio of land acquisition by real estate companies to sales should not exceed 40%" spread like wildfire. It was reported that real estate companies included in the "three red lines" pilot program have been regulated to require that the amount of land purchase is not allowed. Over 40% of annual sales, the scope of statistics includes expenditures on land acquisition in the open market and land acquisition through mergers and acquisitions.
In fact, according to reports from China Business News, as early as last year when the "three red lines" new regulations were introduced, the real estate company's "land-sales ratio not exceeding 40%" was mentioned and listed in the "two observations." Column, that is, the amount of land acquired by the real estate enterprise does not exceed 40% of the sales, and the operating cash flow within three years is positive.
"This time, it is clear that the amount of land purchased should not exceed 40% of annual sales. This is to improve the efficiency of the three red lines and focus on some real estate companies that have rapidly increased leverage." said Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center.
Hu Yu, a partner and research director of Shenzhen Chengnuo Asset Management Company, told China Business News that the regulatory authorities’ tightening of leveraged funds and other policies has led to excessive valuations of A-shares, white horse stocks, new economic companies, and new energy industries. Profit-taking, valuations of US stocks are also at historical highs and may make up for losses at any time. Global stock markets may not be optimistic in the second half of the year.
In contrast, the valuation of A-share traditional industry cyclical stocks is relatively safe and has a large margin of safety. Instead, it may become the mainstay of the market in the next two years.
There are public funds "buying more and more falling"
Penghua Fund believes that the time when market liquidity is the most abundant has passed, many stock valuations are at a historically high level, the speed of new fund building positions has slowed, and the game of capital stock has become the dominant force in market volatility.
However, the market has undergone in-depth adjustments recently, and some public funds that still have a lot of "bullets" in their hands have smelled opportunities.
"Many investors have recently thought about whether to'cut meat', but for some outstanding companies with a stable ROE of more than 20%, especially consumer stocks, our fund managers are buying more and more. Value investors need this. Persistence and courage." The person in charge of a public fund in Shenzhen told China Business News.
A public fundraiser of a real estate stock in Shanghai told CBN that it was early to buy the leading real estate stocks. The white horse stocks represented by real estate stocks fell more than expected. The mortgage interest rate has also risen rapidly this year. It is estimated that the stock price is still at In the process of "grinding the bottom".
"Normal three years, up to five years. For example, after real estate stocks peaked in 2009, there were surges in 2012 and at the end of 2014. In the long run, there will always be a rotation." The public offering person said that there are always leading stocks in the real estate industry chain. When it rises, the market concentration will also increase significantly, and investors can continue to wait patiently.
Star Stone Investment believes that the gradual recovery of the global economy, including China, is currently a clear general trend and will not stagnate or reverse due to some short-term factors.
Under the premise of gradual economic recovery, investors can pay attention to post-cyclical stocks that have reasonable valuations and will gradually benefit from economic recovery in the future, such as optional consumption and services.
Bosera Fund stated that from the corporate level, the profits of some high-quality companies are in the continuous expansion range and have good fundamentals; as the market is still facing disturbances by many uncertain factors, the future A-shares may continue to fluctuate, and the structural market is still Mainstream, investment targets with high mid-year report growth and high industry prosperity will be more favored by the market.
Author: Li Jun