In the first half of the year, Hainan's regional GDP increased by 17.5% year-on-year, and the two-year average growth rate was 7.0%, ranking second and first in the country respectively.
The epidemic is changing the original regional economic structure, and the economic data of the provinces in the first half of the year reflects this gradual trend.
On July 27, Zhejiang Province and Hebei Province announced their economic performance in the first half of 2021.
In the first half of this year, Zhejiang’s GDP was 3,455.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.4%, an average increase of 6.8% in two years; Hebei’s GDP was 1,873.93 billion yuan, an increase of 9.9% year-on-year, and an average increase of 4.6% in two years.
So far, apart from Tibet and Xinjiang, 29 provinces across the country have announced their economic performance in the first half of the year.
Eastern growth rate leads
Judging from the economic growth rate in the first half of this year, among the 29 provinces that have released data, 11 have a growth rate that exceeds or equals the national level (12.7%), and 18 are below the national level.
The top three provinces in terms of growth rate are Hubei, Hainan, Zhejiang, and Beijing, which increased by 28.5%, 17.5%, 13.4%, and 13.4%, respectively.
Among these 11 provinces, the eastern coastal provinces account for six, namely Hainan, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Guangdong, Shandong and Shanghai.
In the first half of the first half of the year, the top 4 economic provinces in total GDP also ranked among the top in the country in terms of growth rate.
However, the growth rate of the inland areas in the central and western regions declined, ranking low.
Judging from the two-year average growth rate compared with 2019, the eastern region still maintains its leading position.
The average growth rate of 15 provinces across the country for two years was higher than the national growth rate of 5.3%. The top three are Hainan, Jiangsu and Zhejiang, which increased by 7%, 6.9% and 6.8% respectively.
Huang Yong, vice president of the Guizhou Academy of Social Sciences, told China Business News that after the epidemic, the economic growth rate in the east has been higher. This is reflected in the strength of the manufacturing industry in the east and is closely related to its industrial layout and industrial chain.
Especially for final consumer goods, as the world is affected by the epidemic, orders in the eastern region have increased, while the industries in the central and western regions are mostly raw materials, with insufficient deep processing and short industrial chains.
CBN inquired the database of the National Bureau of Statistics and found that in the first half of this year, the provinces where the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by more than 20% were Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Hubei and Tibet, which increased by 41.4%, 20%, and 21.5% respectively. , 20.8%, 34.9% and 21.1%, Guangdong also increased by 18.5%.
The rapid growth of industry has supported the leading economic growth of these provinces.
For example, in the first half of this year, Jiangsu's industrial added value increased by 18% year-on-year, driving economic growth by 6.7 percentage points, an average growth rate of 8.7% in two years.
Among the three major sectors of industry, the manufacturing industry, which accounts for more than 90% of the total value added, has the fastest growth and continues to grow faster than the province. In the first half of the year, the manufacturing industry increased by 21.8% year-on-year, and the two-year average growth rate was 11.1%.
Ma Jun, director of the Industrial Statistics Division of the Jiangsu Provincial Bureau of Statistics, analyzed Jiangsu's industrial production and believes that the market demand side is "fast inside and stable outside", and the role of domestic demand "ballast" has increased.
In the first half of the year, the export delivery value of industries above designated size in Jiangsu Province increased by 21% year-on-year, an average increase of 7.2% in the two years; the domestic sales output value increased by 33% year-on-year, and the two-year average growth rate was 14.6%.
Data from Zhejiang also shows that in the first half of the year, the added value of its industries above designated size was 946.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.8%, and an average growth rate of 10.1% over the two years.
Among the 38 industrial sectors, 36 industries achieved growth.
The added value of manufacturing in the core industry of the digital economy increased by 28.2%, an average increase of 18.5% in two years.
Hainan takes over as the leader?
The semi-annual reports of these 29 provinces also showed a significant change. The leader seems to have changed again. From the perspective of the growth rate in the first half of this year and the two-year average growth rate, the growth rate of Guizhou, which has led the previous few years, is ranked as follows: As a result, Hainan began to take over.
In the first half of this year, the GDP of Guizhou region increased by 12.1% over the same period of the previous year, with an average growth of 6.7% in two years, ranking 11th and 4th in the country respectively.
In the first half of the year, Hainan's regional GDP increased by 17.5% year-on-year, and the two-year average growth rate was 7.0%, ranking second and first in the country respectively.
Huang Yong said that investment growth in Guizhou is declining, traditional industries continue to be upgraded, and emerging industries still need to be cultivated.
Although big data has a certain foundation, it has not yet played a pillar role in the national economy, and its import, export and consumption scale is small, and its role in stimulating the economy is not strong.
Therefore, under the epidemic, economic growth has been greatly affected.
In the first half of the year, the investment in fixed assets in Guizhou Province increased by 3.4% over the same period of the previous year.
Among them, the investment in the primary industry increased by 61.7% over the same period of the previous year, the investment in the secondary industry increased by 19.7%, and the investment in the tertiary industry decreased by 3.6%.
The high economic growth of Guizhou in the past few years is closely related to the growth of investment in infrastructure and other areas. At present, investment in Guizhou has turned to industrial investment, and the investment growth rate has gradually declined in the past two years.
At the same time, Hainan has received strong support from national policies.
In 2020, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council issued the "Overall Plan for the Construction of Hainan Free Trade Port". The policy effects of the construction of the free trade port have already appeared, driving the rapid growth of the economic growth troika.
Among them, in the first half of this year, investment in fixed assets in Hainan Province increased by 20.7% year-on-year and 24.3% year-on-year, with an average growth rate of 11.5% over the two years.
In terms of investment types, non-real estate development investment increased by 21.8%, which was 2.8 percentage points higher than real estate development investment.
The growth rate of industrial investment (excluding real estate development) increased, with a year-on-year increase of 38.2%.
However, Huang Yong also said that because it is still in a special period under the epidemic, it is difficult to judge which province will be the leader of future economic growth.
The upgrading of traditional industries such as energy and raw materials in Guizhou continues to advance, and vigorously develops the real economy of the manufacturing industry. Even if the growth rate of Guizhou will no longer be the first in the future, it should continue to maintain its leading position in the country.
Regional changes
Comparing the semi-annual reports of various regions, the data in the first half of this year also reflects the gradual change of the regional economic structure.
In the first half of the year, the economic aggregates of both Chongqing and Yunnan surpassed that of Liaoning. This is another attack by the southwestern provinces after Sichuan surpassed Liaoning in 2015.
In the 2020 provincial GDP rankings, Chongqing and Yunnan ranked 17th and 18th in the country respectively, and they were successfully promoted to one place in the first half of the year.
As provinces dominated by heavy industry, both Liaoning and Chongqing have undergone several years of in-depth adjustments.
In particular, Chongqing’s industrial restructuring in recent years has been quite effective and has gradually come out of the trough.
In the first half of the year, Chongqing achieved a regional GDP of 1,290.341 billion yuan, an increase of 12.8% year-on-year, and an average growth rate of 6.6% in two years, regaining its position in the forefront of the national growth rate.
Yi Xiaoguang, director of the Chongqing Comprehensive Economic Research Institute, told China Business News that in recent years, Chongqing has increased its efforts to promote the adjustment and improvement of industrial structure.
In the two years before the epidemic, Chongqing's economy fell, mainly due to the decline in industries such as automobiles and equipment manufacturing.
In the past two years, Chongqing's automobile industry has made great adjustments in its product structure, and these adjustments have produced positive effects.
The overtakes of Chongqing and Yunnan show the overall uplift of the southwest plate compared with the northeast plate in the regional structure.
In 2015, Sichuan, the largest province in the Southwest, surpassed Liaoning, the largest province in the Northeast, and was promoted to sixth place in the country.
Huang Yong said that, indeed, several provinces in the southwest region have grown relatively fast over the years and their strength has been continuously strengthened. This "Southwestern phenomenon" of regional economic development is worth studying.
Not only that, Jiangxi and Anhui in the central region also performed well in the first half of this year. Both provinces grew by 12.9% in the first half of this year, and the two-year average growth rates were 6.7% and 6.6% respectively.
The relatively high speed has changed the ranking of economic aggregates: Jiangxi surpassed Shaanxi to advance to 14th, and Anhui entered the top ten for the first time.
Author: Li Xiuzhong