Cost-saving effect on the
ups and downs of pig prices
Our reporter Ji Leilei
The rise and fall of pork prices has attracted public attention.
The latest data released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs shows that in the first half of this year, my country's live pig production has fully recovered.
According to statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics, at the end of June, there were 45.64 million reproductive sows in the country, equivalent to 102% of the end of 2017; the number of live pigs was 439 million, returning to 99.4% at the end of 2017.
At the same time, since February, the price of live pigs has fallen for five consecutive months. By the end of June, the retail price of pork in the national bazaar was 24.6 yuan per kilogram, which was more than half of the historical high price in February 2020.
The continuous decline in breeding profits caused many pig farmers to lose money in June.
"If this situation continues, it will not be conducive to the long-term stable development of the industry, nor to the long-term stable production and supply of pork." Xin Guochang, a secondary inspector of the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, said that fluctuations in live pig prices are part of the market's allocation of resources. This kind of performance, but the big ups and downs will have a certain impact on the development of the industry, the lives of the people, and the stability of prices.
Xin Guochang analyzed that the main reason for the decline in live pig prices was the better recovery of production capacity, which led to an increase in market supply.
According to statistics from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs on designated slaughter companies, the slaughter volume of slaughter companies above designated size reached 22 million in June, a year-on-year increase of 66%.
In addition, some commercial organizations took advantage of the momentum to mislead the pig farmers and also contributed to the important reason for the price drop.
"Affected by the cold wave at the beginning of this year, the survival rate of piglets has declined. Some pig farmers began to reluctantly sell them, and even bought fattened pigs from others for secondary fattening. As a result, the market in June did not compare prices as expected. High, causing some pig farmers to fall into losses." Xin Guochang said.
In response to this situation, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has continuously issued early warning messages to remind pig farmers to avoid speculative penalties and panic slaughter, and to speed up the elimination of low-yielding sows.
At the same time, in cooperation with the National Development and Reform Commission’s first-level warning of excessive decline in the price of pig and grain, 33,000 tons of pork were purchased and stored in two batches.
With the close cooperation of all parties, the recent downward trend in pig prices has been effectively curbed.
Since July, the price of pigs has basically stabilized near the cost line, and the price of live pigs on the market is 16 yuan per kilogram.
What is the trend of the live pig market in the second half of the year?
Xin Guochang believes that overall consumption will increase in the second half of the year. From the perspective of production growth inertia, pork supply will also increase. As consumption becomes prosperous, the efficiency of pig raising will return to normal profit levels.
However, we must also remind the majority of pig farmers that the high-profit stage is over. Don’t bet on the market anymore. Pay more attention to the official warning information of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs. Don’t blindly press the slaughter, get out of the slaughter in an orderly manner, and stop arranging production with a speculative mentality. , To do a long-term cost-saving and efficiency-increasing work.
It is a major issue to restrain and alleviate the pig cycle, and to prevent pigs from harming the people while pigs are cheap.
Xin Guochang said that in the next step, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will focus on three aspects.
First, consolidate the results of the recovery of live pig production.
In this round of hog production recovery, the central government has issued a series of support policies, and local governments have implemented responsibilities.
It is necessary to continue to actively coordinate relevant departments to maintain the continuity and stability of basic policies such as land use, environmental impact assessment, and finance, and continue to consolidate the local responsibility for stabilizing production and supply, and prevent some regions from "turning the cake" in terms of policies.
At the same time, it is necessary to do a good job in the normalized prevention and control of African swine fever, strengthen technical guidance services, and help pig farmers save costs and increase efficiency during the low period.
Secondly, it is necessary to speed up the establishment of a regulation mechanism to stabilize the production capacity of live pigs.
In 2019, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs established a direct reporting system for large-scale pig farms, which can accurately grasp the monthly production changes of 180,000 large-scale pig farms that produce more than 500 pigs a year.
In the future, it is necessary to further strengthen the monitoring and early warning of production and the market, especially to promote the regulation index with the change of breeding sow stock as the core, and to establish a trigger mechanism for counter-cyclical regulation of pig production.
In addition, we must vigorously promote the high-quality development of the pig industry.
The General Office of the State Council issued the "Opinions on Promoting the High-quality Development of Animal Husbandry". It is necessary to accelerate the construction of a modern pig breeding system, implement a pig genetic improvement plan, continue to promote standardized scale breeding, and support leading enterprises to help small and medium farmers change traditional breeding methods. Develop moderate scale operations.
It is necessary to improve the animal disease prevention and control system and strengthen the normalized prevention and control of African swine fever.
Speed up the construction of a modern pig product processing and distribution system, and promote the green and circular development of the pig industry.
Ji Leilei