China News Service, July 20, "We have also done some analysis on the next market trend. In the second half of the year, the overall consumption will increase, but from the inertia of production growth, the supply of pork will also increase. Comprehensive two Based on the analysis of factors, it is possible that the supply and demand of the pork market will be balanced for a period of time in the future, and this balance will continue for a period of time.” Xin Guochang, the second-level inspector of the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, made the above statement when answering questions from reporters on the 20th.
Data map: In a supermarket, staff are sorting pork for sale.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Zhang Yun
The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a press conference on the 20th to introduce the operation of the agricultural and rural economy in the first half of the year.
At the meeting, a reporter asked a question that since the beginning of the year, the price of live pigs has dropped significantly, and some farmers have suffered losses. What is the main reason for the price drop of pork?
What is the market trend in the later period?
In this regard, Xin Guochang pointed out that starting from February at the beginning of the year, the price of live pigs fell for 5 consecutive months, and fell to the end of June. The retail price of pork in the national bazaar was 24.6 yuan per kilogram, which was 59.64 yuan higher than the historical high price in February 2020. The yuan fell by more than half.
"Maybe everyone really feels that the price of pork is indeed cheaper. But the problem that comes with it is that the profit of breeding continues to decline. By June, the farmers were in a loss. If this situation continues, both It is not conducive to the long-term stable development of the industry, and it is not conducive to the long-term stable production and supply of pork. Therefore, everyone pays more attention to the price of pork. Consumers are not happy when the price is high, and farmers are not happy when the price is low.
Xin Guochang said that from the current price drop, the most important thing is that the recovery of production capacity is better, the production capacity has increased, and the market supply has also increased.
According to the statistics of designated slaughter enterprises by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the slaughter volume of slaughter enterprises above designated size was 22 million heads in June, a year-on-year increase of 66%. This increase is very large.
"In addition to the increase in supply, there is also a driving factor. At the beginning of this year, due to the cold wave, the survival rate of piglets has declined. Some commercial organizations took advantage of the hype and misled a group of pig farmers. Some pig farmers started They were reluctant to sell, betting on the market on the Dragon Boat Festival, and even farmers buying fat pigs from others for second fattening. As a result, the market in June was not as high as expected, but was at a loss. It is also a boosting factor." Xin Guochang said.
In response to this situation, Xin Guochang said that the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has continuously issued warning messages through authoritative media to remind pig farmers to avoid speculative pressure and panic slaughter, speed up the elimination of low-yielding sows, and cooperate with the National Development and Reform Commission to issue pig-food price comparisons. The first-level warning of excessive decline, and the purchase and storage of 33,000 tons of pork in two batches.
With the close cooperation of all parties, the recent downward trend in market prices has been curbed.
Since July, the price of pigs has basically stabilized near the cost line, slightly lower than the cost line, about 16 yuan per kilogram of live pigs in the market.
"Regarding the next market trend, we have also done some analysis. In the second half of the year, the overall consumption will increase, but from the inertia of production growth, pork supply will also increase. Based on the analysis of two factors, it may be a period of time in the future. The supply and demand of the pork market are generally balanced, and this balance will continue for a period of time." Xin Guochang said that as consumption becomes prosperous, pig raising may be able to return to the normal profit level, "but it is important to remind the majority of pig farmers that, The high-profit stage is over. Stop betting on the market. Pay more attention to the official warning information of the agricultural and rural departments. Speed up the elimination of low-yielding sows and do a good job of saving costs and increasing efficiency. In particular, don’t listen to some gossips on the market. , Don’t blindly press the hurdles, put the hurdles out in an orderly manner, stop arranging production with a speculative mentality, and do a long-term cost-saving and efficiency-increasing work."