Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client, July 20th, today (20th), the new loan market price rate (LPR) was released.

The People's Bank of China authorized the National Interbank Funding Center to announce that the 1-year LPR is 3.85%, and the 5-year or more LPR is 4.65%.

As of July, LPR has "fifteen consecutive draws."

  Screenshot of the central bank website

  The 1-year MLF interest rate has a greater impact on LPR quotations.

Although the 100 billion yuan medium-term lending facility (MLF) winning interest rate launched by the central bank on July 15 remains unchanged, the central bank’s overall reduction of the RRR has been implemented, and whether the LPR will be adjusted has attracted great attention from the market.

  Wang Yifeng, chief banking analyst at Everbright Securities, believes that business principles are not enough to drive LPR downgrades.

First, this time the RRR cut has improved the capital cost by 13 billion, and it is preliminary estimated that the improvement in the comprehensive debt cost ratio is less than 1BP.

Second, from the perspective of monthly marginal changes, from June 20th to July 16th, China National Stock Exchange’s NCD interest rate dropped by 20 BP, and net financing was about 220 billion. The improvement of China National Stock Exchange’s comprehensive debt cost was small, and it was still not enough to drive LPR quotations. 5BP step size adjustment.

The third is the reform of the deposit interest rate quotation system, which mainly benefits time deposits and large deposit certificates for more than one year, but the interest rates for demand and less than one year are relatively stable, and notice deposits and agreement deposits have been raised significantly. As the LPR quotation agency, the state-owned bank has core deposit costs Still under pressure.

  National Financial Fixed Income also said before that the MLF interest rate has not been adjusted this time, and the probability of a reduction in LPR this month is unlikely.

However, if the actual loan interest rate is to continue to be guided down in the future to reduce costs and burdens for enterprises, MLF and LPR may still be adjusted.

  However, some insiders have analyzed that the LPR in July may be lowered.

Sun Binbin, chief fixed income analyst at Tianfeng Securities, said that from the perspective of cost reduction, especially in combination with RRR cuts, financial institutions need to pass the reduced costs to entities, so the possibility of LPR reduction is naturally higher.

This month may be a separate reduction of the 1-year LPR quotation, and does not involve the reduction of the 5-year LPR quotation.

  Regarding the monetary policy in the second half of the year, China National Financial Fixed Income believes that the monetary policy may be moderately loose while being prudent, reflecting "wide credit + stable currency", and at the same time paying attention to the characteristics of "risk prevention".

Taking into account the partial hedging of the MLF that expires in the second half of the year and the continued demand for reducing the burden on companies, it is estimated that the RRR will not be reduced only once, and the policy interest rate cut is not impossible, unless the upward trend of the economy exceeds policy expectations.

(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

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