China News Agency, Beijing, July 19 (Reporter Xia Bin) What is the increasingly "mature" RMB?

Guan Tao, Chief Economist of Bank of China Securities and former Director of the Balance of Payments Department of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said in an exclusive interview with China News Service that the renminbi is increasingly showing a mature currency characteristic of non-linear random walk. .

Guan Tao, Global Chief Economist of Bank of China Securities and former Director of the Balance of Payments Department of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, accepted an exclusive interview with China News Agency "China Focus".

Photo by China News Agency reporter Jia Tianyong

  Guan Tao said that there are many factors affecting the exchange rate. These factors are sometimes dominated by appreciation factors, and sometimes dominated by depreciation factors. These influences will increase and decrease. If they rise, they will fall. If they fall, they will rise.

  In Guan Tao's view, there are actually multiple equilibriums in the foreign exchange market, that is, given the fundamentals, it is not possible to simply tell whether the RMB will appreciate or depreciate linearly.

  "I do believe in a concept that the economy is strong and the currency is strong. This is proven by historical experience. For example, with the rise of the Japanese and German economies after World War II, the Deutsche mark and the yen have appreciated in the long term." Guan Tao said. It can be seen that if we follow the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the 2035 long-term goal, achieve a high level of opening to the outside world, achieve high-quality development, and have a strong economy and a strong currency, the renminbi will definitely have potential. During the process, there are many uncertainties, which may be both bullish and bearish for the RMB exchange rate.

  "Rather than talking about the new cycle of appreciation, it is better to adapt to the new normal of volatility. We must not use unilateral thinking to view exchange rate trends." Guan Tao said bluntly, the more market-oriented we are, the more a non-linear random walk of the exchange rate. Mature currency characteristics.

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