China's economic recovery in the second half of the year is relatively stable
News from our newspaper (Reporter Zhao Yuhan) The China Macroeconomic Forum recently released its latest monthly report to interpret the economic performance in the first half of the year.
The report believes that China's economy continued to improve in the first half of this year, exports in the three major demands continued to exceed expectations, and consumption and investment were continuing to recover.
Liu Yuanchun, vice president of Renmin University of China, analyzed that from a global perspective, the speed and quality of China's economic recovery have been relatively benign.
The recovery will be relatively stable in the second half of the year, but the pressure for recovery will be even more severe in the early part of next year.
According to the report, judging from a number of macroeconomic indicators in June and the first half of the year, China's economy is still in a "window period with less pressure to stabilize growth", but this "window period" is already at the end.
In terms of economic growth, my country’s economic growth target this year is set at over 6%. GDP in the first quarter increased by 18.3% year-on-year, the second quarter increased by 7.9% year-on-year, and the first half of the year increased by 12.7% year-on-year.
In terms of employment targets, more than 11 million new jobs were created in urban areas in the first half of the year, completing 63.5% of the annual target. The urban surveyed unemployment rate in June was 5.0%, which was significantly lower than the expected target of 5.5%.
According to the analysis of the report, from the perspective of GDP growth rate and employment data, China’s economy in the first half of the year was already better than the predetermined target. At the same time, the consumer price level was at a relatively low level, which provided macro policy development for the continued improvement of China’s economy. Force space.
Looking ahead to the economic trend in the second half of the year, the report analyzes the many advantages of sustained and healthy economic growth.
In addition to the "double surpassing" of economic growth and employment targets, exports remained strong in the first half of the year, and exports are expected to remain in a relatively good state in the second half of the year.
At the same time, the industrial value-added, consumption, and fixed asset investment data in June were better than those in May, and the economy continued to improve.
In addition, the "three new" economic momentum continues to increase, and new industries, new business formats and new models are developing rapidly, which will provide important support for stable economic growth in the second half of the year.