Semi-annual Economic Report of the New Beginnings·Speaking of China|Accelerating the "Break the Circle" Vigorous Surging——Looking at China's Economic Stamina from the Main Consumer Engine

　　Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, July 17 -

Question: Accelerating vitality "broken circle" surging - look at China's economic momentum from consumption of the main engine

　　Xinhua News Agency reporters Zou Duowei, Wang Yuxiao, and Dai Xiaohe

　　As night falls, in the bright light and shadow, the scenery of "Furong Garden", the tide of "Nine Eyes Bridge", and the elegance of "Music Workshop" are all unique.

The 2021 China Urban Night Economy and Consumption Upgrade Conference ended on the 16th in Chengdu. During the night, more than 50 guests participated in the night tour. They admired the charm of the city of abundance and praised the vibrant night economy.

　　Under the normalization of epidemic prevention and control, the re-lit night economy has become a microcosm of consumption recovery.

Since the beginning of this year, as my country's economic recovery has been steadily improving, the consumer market has continued to pick up. From January to June, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 23% year-on-year, and by 9% over the same period in 2019, with an average growth rate of 4.4% over the two years.

　　"Consumption has increased its driving role. In the first half of the year, the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth reached 61.7%." said Liu Aihua, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics.

　　As the "14th Five-Year Plan" is a new start, how can the consumption engine support the steady and long-term development of China's economy?

　　Consumption is the main engine driving economic growth.

Since the beginning of this year, my country's urban and rural consumer markets have improved quarter by quarter, and the recovery momentum has been further consolidated.

　　Especially in the second quarter, the domestic epidemic prevention and control situation improved. Driven by factors such as the May 1st and Dragon Boat Festival holiday consumption, consumer demand was steadily released. The slow recovery of catering and tourism have also accelerated the pace of recovery.

　　Data shows that in the first half of the year, catering revenue increased by 48.6% year-on-year, and the scale of catering consumption has basically returned to the level of the same period in 2019.

The volume of passenger transportation completed by civil aviation increased by 66.4% year-on-year, and the degree of recovery was 76.2% in the same period in 2019.

Among them, the catering revenue in the second quarter increased by 29.5% year-on-year, and the passenger traffic volume of civil aviation recovered to 89.0% of the same period in 2019.

　　While the data has improved significantly, consumption is expanding and upgrading, and the acceleration of new business formats and new models "breaks the circle", actively boosting the blooming of consumption vitality.

　　——The consumer market is more segmented, and the new national wave continues to "circulate fans."

　　A collective outbreak of new brands!

This year's "Tmall 618" report card delivered an "unexpected" signal.

In the same stage competition with the "predecessors", 459 "grassroots" brands "counter-attacked" topped the sub-industry champions.

　　From smart cat litter boxes to pet oral cleaning, from large-size women's clothing to big cup bras, from "fat house happy water" to "tons, tons, tons, tons, tons, tons, tons, tons" of sweet wine... the new brand's brilliant record not only attracted 800 million Consumers use the "shopping cart" to cast a vote of confidence, and it has become a "potential stock" that investors pay close attention to.

　　According to Xu Guangjian, a professor at the School of Public Administration of Renmin University of China, under the stimulus of the epidemic, a series of innovative consumption such as “breaking the wall”, “out of the circle” and “leopard change” have become new growth points for consumption.

　　——Consumption patterns are changing with each passing day, and new scenes are overwhelming.

　　Only unexpected, nothing impossible.

Tourism companies cross-border e-commerce, bank apps cross-border live broadcasts, gas stations cross-border vegetables...Affected by the epidemic, many new consumption scenarios continue to emerge.

　　In the future, there will be such a supermarket that will make you "can't stop": you only need to scan into the store, you don't need to check out when you take the goods, and the moment you leave the store, the mobile phone will automatically complete the deduction.

This is the smart store that was unveiled at the 2021 World Artificial Intelligence Conference not long ago.

　　Integrated online and offline consumption brings accurate, convenient, and fast smart life. Live streaming allows you to “buy, buy, and buy” without leaving your house. AR, VR, HD giant screen, dome and other technologies are integrated to create All-round immersive experience... Constantly "refreshing" new cognition scenarios, stimulating new consumer demands and releasing new consumer potential.

　　Zhao Ping, deputy dean of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade Research Institute, said that these changes will generate new traction on the supply side, promote changes in supply methods, increase effective supply, facilitate a virtuous cycle between supply and demand, and promote high-quality economic development.

　　——The consumption trend is diversified, and new groups have emerged.

　　A vibrant consumer market must be supported by strong consumer entities.

Where is the "main force" to adapt to the new trend of consumption upgrade?

　　There is a group of people who are the "darlings" of business models and the "sweet and pastry" targeted by major applications; they are easy to accept new things and are willing to pay for emerging consumers.

They are the Chinese "Generation Z" (born from 1995 to 2009).

　　Leaving the campus to join the society, from no income to a stable income, they are replacing the millennial generation (born from 1984 to 1995) as the new main consumer force.

They have a better living environment and grew up with the Internet. They have a more dimensional pursuit of products, and they pay more attention to personalized and diverse subjective experiences.

　　According to Ernst & Young’s analysis, the “post-90s” have become the mainstay of society. Currently, the main consumer groups in China continue to be younger and are shifting to “post-95s” and “post-00s”.

　　After gradually becoming familiar with the online consumption model, the “post-50s” (people aged 50 to 70) and “new elderly” whose spending power has begun to emerge are superimposed on new ideas such as “small town youth”, “exquisite mothers”, “new white-collar workers”, and “urban blue-collar workers”. The "new middle class", with a large number of consumer groups, fully demonstrates the charm of the Chinese market.

　　On the one hand, it is necessary to affirm the "mid-term" results of stabilization and improvement; on the other hand, it is necessary to realize that in the face of the continuous evolution of the global epidemic and the external uncertainty brought about by the world economic recession, the consumer sector has to Gradually warming up but still under pressure.

　　Over 1.4 billion people, over 400 million middle-income groups, and per capita GDP surpassed 10,000 U.S. dollars-China's super-large-scale market has obvious advantages, and the consumption upgrade trend remains unchanged.

　　To let the consumption engine release more stamina, it is especially necessary to activate the large domestic consumer market, strengthen market order supervision, open up the congestion and pain points in the consumer sector, and let consumption "run", so as to inject more new impetus into the steady recovery of the economy.

　　Zhang Yansheng, chief researcher of the China International Economic Exchange Center, said that the current priority is to strengthen the dominant position of the domestic cycle, increase the proportion of household consumption in GDP, increase the per capita disposable income of residents, and narrow the income gap between urban and rural residents.

It is expected that in the second half of the year, as the epidemic continues to be effectively controlled, the momentum of consumption growth will continue.