China News Service, Beijing, July 15 (Reporter Xia Bin) China’s mid-year economic "transcript" was released on the 15th, and China News Agency’s "National Forum: 2021 Mid-year Economic Situation Analysis Meeting" was held on the same day. Interpretation of economic data.

Although the data in the second quarter fell slightly from the first quarter, the year-on-year GDP growth of 12.7% in the first half of the year was still dazzling. Among them, the prudent monetary policy orientation gave great support to the real economy.

　　Zong Liang, the chief researcher of the Bank of China, compared the monetary policies of China and the United States when attending the forum and said that the monetary policies of the two countries have a direct impact on all aspects of the world, and there are three main differences between the two.

　　One is the difference in inflation.

Regardless of whether it is from a month-on-month or a year-on-year basis, the US CPI has exceeded expectations for three consecutive months.

Zong Liang said that from April to June, inflation in the United States has been at a relatively high level in recent years, with 4.2% in April, 5.0% in May, and 5.4% in June.

Relatively speaking, China's inflation is generally not under too much pressure, and the situation is better than that of the United States.

　　The second is the difference in monetary policy space.

Zong Liang said that the US monetary policy should raise interest rates, but it is too difficult to raise interest rates, which will affect its economic growth and will also raise the debt burden in a short time, so the room for its monetary policy is much smaller.

　　"Relatively speaking, China's monetary policy is still relatively large." Zong Liang said that in the future, monetary policy needs to be more effectively adapted to economic development.

　　The third is the difference in the focus of monetary policy.

Zong Liang believes that the U.S. monetary policy pays more attention to the U.S. stock market to some extent.

　　He further stated that the focus of China's monetary policy is to effectively support the development of the real economy. For example, if China's economy is to achieve steady growth, it needs to solve the problem of difficult and expensive financing for small and medium-sized enterprises, and the problem of insufficient demand in some places.

　　Speaking of China's economic performance in the first half of the year, Zong Liang believes that "the numbers are still very good."

In his view, China has made a good start in the first year of the "14th Five-Year Plan". If the current trend continues, it is expected that the annual economic growth rate will remain at 8% or above.

　　Zong Liang suggested that in the future, it is necessary to consider the organic connection between 2021 and 2022 to prevent various adverse international environments, and at the same time, the supply side must be able to better meet market demand and achieve dynamic balance.

　　To this end, Zong Liang put forward four suggestions. First, we must rationally arrange fiscal and monetary policies to ensure steady economic growth. We must focus on ourselves, and the aggregate and structure must be parallel, and the structure should be steadily adjusted and optimized while promoting economic growth.

　　Second, we must increase support for people's livelihood, expand middle-income groups from the demand level, and keep supply around people's livelihood from the investment aspect.

　　The third is to stabilize market expectations.

Zong Liang believes that, on the one hand, it is necessary to maintain supply and stabilize prices, and not to allow inflation to form a huge pressure. The increase in commodity prices will not be clearly transmitted to the CPI, and at the same time, the pressure on small and medium-sized enterprises will continue to decrease.

From another perspective, we must stabilize exchange rate expectations and maintain the basic stability and two-way fluctuations of the RMB exchange rate.

　　The last is to be wary of the transfer effect of external input risks.

Zong Liang said that in general, we must maintain the strength of China's monetary policy, effectively support China's economic development, and do a good job of our own economy in order to withstand various external risks.

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