China News Service, Beijing, July 15 (Reporter Wang Enbo) Wang Jun, chief economist of Zhongyuan Bank, stated in Beijing on the 15th that China’s consumer price index (CPI) will certainly not exceed the government’s target this year, but the three major ones in the second half of the year. Factors may affect price trends.

　　China News Agency held the "National Forum: 2021 Mid-year Economic Situation Analysis Conference" in Beijing on the same day.

Wang Jun said at the meeting that although the producer price index (PPI) of industrial producers has risen this year, it is difficult for historical industrial product inflation to be fully transmitted to the downstream. In addition, it is currently at the bottom of the pig cycle, and many factors are not supported. Terminal prices have risen rapidly and sharply.

　　He also pointed out that considering base factors and other factors, the CPI will rise slightly in the second half of the year.

It is expected that the CPI will run above 2% in the third and fourth quarters, but it will certainly not exceed the target of "around 3%" set by the government at the beginning of the year.

　　Regarding the factors affecting prices in the second half of the year, Wang Jun said that the first is whether oil and food prices will rise more than expected, which is an important factor driving global and domestic inflation.

He said that in the second half of the year, the economic recovery in the United States and Europe is expected to be faster, and related travel demand will increase, and the oil trend is optimistic.

In addition, international food prices have also risen sharply since the second half of last year, which will create uncertainty for price trends in the second half of the year.

　　Secondly, the inflation situation in the United States and the Fed's reduction in bond purchases are also highly related to related risks.

The latest data shows that the U.S. core PPI and CPI have reached new highs. The gradual tightening or return of the Fed’s policy in the future is an established policy operation, but the pace is still difficult to grasp. This will directly affect the dollar, U.S. stocks and U.S. Treasury bond yields, as well as U.S. inflation The situation, in turn, has an impact on domestic policies and prices.

　　The last factor is the epidemic.

Wang Jun said that the opening of the Tokyo Olympics is imminent, but the epidemic in Japan has not yet been fully controlled, and the epidemic in the United States is also rebounding. There are signs that the virus may coexist with humans for a long time.

Judging from the current situation, the global supply and demand gap may exist for a long time, which will benefit China's external demand.

　　Talking about the policy level, Wang Jun believes that the focus of China's policy in the second half of the year needs to take into account stable growth, structural adjustment, and transformation to prevent the economy from falling beyond expectations.

He mentioned that China's monetary policy has made some active adjustments recently, and the fiscal policy should also maintain the necessary expansion and forward-looking, and make further efforts in response to the current structural and uneven recovery.

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