Chinanews client, Beijing, July 15 (Zuo Yukun) On the 15th, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the price data of 70 cities in June. The increase in the sales price of commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium-sized cities showed a steady but declining trend.
Among them, the price increase of new houses in 4 first-tier cities was the same as last month, and the price increase of second-hand houses slightly expanded from last month; the price increase of new houses in second- and third-tier cities fell from the previous month, and the price increase of second-hand houses was the same as last month.
At this point, the first half of the property market came to an end.
During the period, did house prices go up or down?
How will we go next?
Data map: In a corner of Chengdu, the sun is rising from the east.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Liu Zhongjun
New house price growth has steadily narrowed
From the perspective of new housing performance, in June, the sales price of newly built commercial housing in first-tier cities rose by 0.7% month-on-month, the same rate as the previous month. Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen rose by 0.9%, 0.5%, 1.0% and 0.5% respectively.
“The increase in the price of new houses in first-tier cities has a certain relationship with the market supply structure,” said Zhang Bo, director of 58 Anju Guest House Property Research Institute, for example. The second and third batches of Shanghai’s centralized supply of commercial housing projects accounted for a large proportion of the supply in the city center. Significant improvement, which also improved the overall performance of house prices to a certain extent.
In June 2021, the sales price index of newly-built commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium-sized cities.
Screenshot from the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics
In addition, the sales prices of newly-built commercial residential buildings in second- and third-tier cities rose 0.5% and 0.3% month-on-month, respectively, and the growth rate dropped by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.
"Second-tier and third-tier cities have seen a significant reduction in growth. Especially in second-tier cities, various policy controls have been actively in place, which has promoted the stabilization of market prices." Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, analyzed.
"On the whole, the increase in new house prices in June compared to May is narrowing, which further shows that the housing price bubble has decreased," said Yan Yuejin. In addition to the existing control policies, tightening of credit policies has a positive effect on the suppression of housing price increases. .
At the beginning of 2021, the Central Bank implemented the "three red lines" new regulations on financing supervision and the "two red lines" new regulations restricting real estate and personal housing loans.
Over the past six months, real estate loan quotas in many hot cities have been tightened, the first and second home loan interest rates have been raised, personal housing loan lending time has been extended, and the cost and difficulty of home buyers have increased.
The tightening of credit policies has also made the market gradually more rational.
According to the latest data from the Central Bank, at the end of June, the balance of personal housing loans was 36.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13%, and the growth rate dropped 1.6 percentage points from the end of the previous year, an increase of 2.1 trillion yuan from the beginning of the year, accounting for 16.7% of the increase in various loans over the same period. , A year-on-year increase of 160.2 billion yuan.
Second-hand housing prices go cold under strict control
Compared with new houses, the market situation of second-hand houses has attracted more attention.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in June, the sales price of second-hand housing in first-tier cities rose by 0.7% month-on-month, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; the sales price of second-hand housing in second- and third-tier cities rose by 0.4% and 0.2% respectively from the previous month, both of the same increase. Same last month.
"The existence of rising pressure on second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities is closely related to the increase in market demand." Zhang Bo believes that due to the widespread purchase restriction policies in the new home market, a large amount of housing demand, especially the demand for improvement in the middle and high-end, has to look for opportunities in the second-hand housing market. To a certain extent, this has led to the continuous increase in the popularity of the second-hand housing market.
The sales price index of second-hand housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in June 2021.
Screenshot from the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics
Under pressure, regulatory policies have followed suit.
First-tier cities such as Shenzhen and Shanghai have introduced corresponding control policies for second-hand housing.
Zhang Bo predicts that although the upward pressure on second-hand housing prices will continue, the rate of increase will be effectively controlled.
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Shenzhen is an example. In May, after the month-on-month decline in Shenzhen's second-hand housing prices, it continued to fall by 0.2% in June.
According to data from the Shenzhen Housing Management Bureau, the transaction volume of second-hand housing continued to decline after March 2021. The transaction area in May and June 2021 was about 276,000 square meters and 237,000 square meters, down 61.0% and 73.8% year-on-year respectively; 6 Only 2,820 sets were traded each month, which was the lowest value since 2003.
According to agency statistics, at present, more than 10 cities across the country have introduced a second-hand housing guidance price system, and the supervision of second-hand housing is facing unprecedented severity.
According to the monitoring of Crane, some cities that have already achieved the guide price of second-hand housing have seen a significant decline in transaction volume, such as Chengdu, which has announced two batches of reference prices.
CITIC Securities also pointed out in the latest research report that due to the effective regulation of second-hand housing transfer guidance prices and quick results, it is expected that this policy will be promoted in large and medium-sized cities across the country after Shenzhen, Chengdu, Xi'an and other places; this policy will help Solve the problem of self-reinforcing expectations in the second-hand housing market, and resolve the problem of expanding gaps in second-hand housing prices.
13 cities hit the school district room for speculation
"This round of housing price increases comes to a large extent from school district housing." Li Yujiayi, chief researcher of the Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, once said.
In the regulation of second-hand housing, the school district housing, which is still hot, is undoubtedly the top priority.
On the 13th, Wenzhou issued a document to ban the speculation of school district housing, rectifying the speculation of school district housing and adding another city.
According to statistics, since the Politburo meeting at the end of April this year, “to prevent speculation of housing prices in the name of school district housing, etc.”, 13 cities including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chongqing, Xi’an, and Xiamen have taken heavy blows to rectify housing chaos in school districts. Elephant.
Take Beijing as an example. This year’s three districts, Dongcheng, Xicheng and Haidian, where Beijing’s educational resources are most concentrated, have implemented a strict "multi-school" policy. The "equal sign" between "school district housing" and "good school" has been taken. go.
The well-known school districts of Desheng, Yuetan and Financial Street in Xicheng District of Beijing have been hit hard, and some owners have begun to lower their listing prices.
A school district room in Xicheng District, Beijing.
Photo by Zuo Yukun, China News Service
Housing prices in the Shenzhen School District, which were once unusually strong, also appeared to loosen up. For example, the housing prices of the "Guanhaitai" real estate in Nanshan District were lowered by 1.4 million yuan within two days.
In Shanghai, due to the introduction of a balanced education policy, the wait-and-see attitude of school district housing buyers has increased, and some parents have "halted" the purchase plan.
"From the performance of the follow-up market, the focus on cracking down on school district housing speculation will become a feature of second-hand housing regulation." Yan Yuejin believes that in the future school district housing in the field of second-hand housing will face strict supervision, and all kinds of blindly speculating school district housing will be severely cracked down. .
After half of 2021, when will the inflection point of house prices appear?
Looking back at the property market in the first half of 2021, the property market in many cities has overheated, but the prosperity is not long.
Strict control of loans, strict inspection of down payment sources, tightening of the threshold for talent purchases, centralized land supply, value-added tax exemption "2 changes to 5", first-hand housing prices, housing loan interest rates continue to rise... a series of heavy control hammers are coming, housing prices It was also severely suppressed.
For example, in the hot Shanghai property market at the beginning of the year, there was a news that “there are second-hand houses in Shanghai increased by 400,000 yuan in one hour”. However, after a series of tightening measures were introduced, the fever began to fade soon; also because of the sharp reduction in credit policies. In the first half of the year, the number of second-hand houses sold in Guangzhou was 75,212, which was a decrease of nearly 10% from the 83,157 in the second half of last year. The number of houses with lower listing prices began to increase.
According to statistics from the Shell Research Institute, in June alone, there were 20 real estate adjustments issued in Wuxi, Tianjin, Qingdao, Guangzhou, Beijing, Harbin, Changchun, Nanchang, Suzhou, Nanning, Chengdu, Shenzhen, Huzhou, Shaoxing, and Hainan. Policies, policies continue to increase.
Data map: Real estate under construction in Fuzhou, Fujian.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Zhang Bin
With the continuous tightening of property market control policies, can the property market in the second half of the year usher in an inflection point?
"Generally speaking, in July, due to the weather and many other reasons, the market's popularity will decline, but it is expected that the real estate market in July this year will still have a diversified performance." Zhang Bo believes that the most important reason is three times a year. The centralized supply of land in 22 cities in the second half of the year will greatly test the financial strength of real estate companies. From the beginning of the second half of the year, they will accelerate the pace of shipments and quickly withdraw funds to prepare for land. Therefore, some hot cities will be released. Goods will accelerate, and some cities with slow shipments may increase sales promotion, and the performance of housing prices will also be divided.
"In addition, due to the upper limit management of personal mortgages by financial institutions this year, a large number of home buyers have slowed down the pace of entering the market in the first half of the year. This will also lead to a backlog of demand in the second-hand housing market in the third quarter. The impact of this should not be underestimated." Zhang Bo said.
"Overall,'stability' is undoubtedly the most certain key word in the property market in the second half of the year. Stable housing prices and land prices are the foundation. The expected stability of home buyers has also become more certain under the environment of two concentrations of land." Zhang Bo said, Compared with the second half of last year, the overall heat of some hot cities has significantly cooled down, and this trend will continue.
Do you plan to buy a house in the second half of the year?
(Finish)