China-Singapore Jingwei Client, July 16 (Xiong Jiali, Dong Xiangyi) Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics released the latest data on housing prices in 70 cities.

China-Singapore Jingwei Client Co., Ltd. found that the number of cities where new homes rose in June fell for the first time in the year; in terms of second-hand housing, housing prices rose month-on-month in 48 cities, which was the lowest value in the year.

How will house prices go in the second half of the year?

Come and see what the experts say.

Property market data map.

Photo by Sino-Singapore Jingwei Wan Keyi

Prices of new homes are rising for the first time in several years in cities

  The data shows that in June, 55 of the 70 large and medium-sized cities saw a month-on-month increase in the price of newly-built commercial residential buildings, a decrease of 7 from the previous month; 3 cities that remained unchanged, consistent with the previous month; 12 cities that fell, an increase of 7 from the previous month.

  In terms of growth rate, the sales price of newly-built commercial residential buildings in first-tier cities increased by 0.7% month-on-month, the same rate as last month; the sales prices of newly-built commercial residential buildings in second- and third-tier cities increased by 0.5% and 0.3% from the previous month, and the growth rate was 0.1 percentage points lower than the previous month. .

Among them, Jinan led the 70 cities with a 1.5% month-on-month increase, while Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen rose 0.9%, 0.5%, 1.0%, and 0.5% respectively.

Sheng Guoqing, the chief statistician of the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, pointed out that in June, the increase in the sales price of commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium-sized cities showed a steady but declining trend.

  China-Singapore Jingwei Client Co., Ltd. found that the number of cities where new house prices rose in June fell for the first time this year.

At the same time, the analysis of Zhuge Housing Data Research Center pointed out that the average increase of new house prices in 70 cities also fell for the first time, that is, 0.41% in June, which was 0.11 percentage points lower than that in May.

According to the analysis of the Zhuge Housing Research Center, the increase in the price of new homes tends to be more flat due to the gradual effects of regulatory policies and the increasing promotion of housing companies and the exchange of price for volume.

  Regarding the reduction in housing price growth in 70 cities in June, Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, said that in addition to the existing control policies, the tightening of credit policies has a positive effect on the suppression of housing price rises.

The rate of increase narrowed, further indicating that the housing price bubble has decreased.

Second-hand housing prices rose, the number of cities hit a new low this year

  In terms of second-hand housing, in the 70 large and medium-sized cities in June, the sales price of second-hand housing in first-tier cities increased by 0.7% month-on-month, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month; the sales prices of second-hand housing in second- and third-tier cities increased by 0.4% and 0.2% respectively. , The increase was the same as last month.

  Data show that in June, the price of second-hand housing in 48 cities rose month-on-month, the lowest value during the year.

Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Property, said to the Sino-Singapore Jingwei client that the main reason for this phenomenon is that the intensive control of the price of second-hand housing in various places has an effect.

Zhang Dawei pointed out that Beijing had the largest increase in second-hand housing prices for two consecutive months, while Shenzhen had lowered the price for two consecutive months. The price of second-hand housing in Shanghai also experienced a significant slowdown in growth.

On the whole, second-hand housing prices in first- and second-tier hot cities across the country are expected to stabilize.

  Yan Yuejin believes that there is a positive signal in the second-hand housing market that the growth rate has clearly stagnated.

At present, more than 10 cities across the country have introduced a second-hand housing guidance price system, and the supervision of second-hand housing is facing unprecedented strictness, which promotes the cooling of such price data.

  According to Yan Yuejin's analysis, from the performance of the follow-up market, the guide price of second-hand housing will present three characteristics.

First, it is fully rolled out. It is expected that various first- and second-tier cities and key third- and fourth-tier cities will be controlled in the future.

The second is multi-faceted supervision, including listing of housing, house price review, loan approval, etc., there will be some tightening.

The third is to crack down on school district housing speculation.

Buying a house data map.

Photo by Xue Yufei, Sino-Singapore Jingwei

Will the regulation increase?

How will house prices go in the future?

  Yan Yuejin believes that house price growth will continue to be under control.

In particular, local governments still have strict controls on pre-sale licenses, which will further promote market stability.

He pointed out that only constant attention to regulation can truly promote the stability of the market, prices and expectations.

  Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst of the Shell Research Institute, said in an interview with the Sino-Singapore Jingwei client that from a future perspective, the credit environment is tightened, and other cities may continue to follow up with the guidance price of second-hand housing. The overall market is expected to be further adjusted, and housing prices are expected in the future. The overall growth rate continues to narrow, and some cities with high enthusiasm in the new housing market may face further tightening of regulation.

Xie Yifeng, the director of the China Urban Real Estate Research Institute, also predicts that more and more cities will see a bottom in housing prices in the third quarter, showing a bottom curve.

  Zhang Bo, Dean of 58 Anju Guest House Property Research Institute, pointed out that the real estate market is expected to continue to have diversified performance in July this year.

The main reason is the centralized supply of land in 22 cities. The three-time centralized supply of land was only supplied once in the first half of the year, and the other two will be in the second half of the year.

In this context, real estate companies will speed up the pace of shipments from the beginning of the second half of the year, quickly withdraw funds to prepare for land, some slow-moving cities or increase promotion efforts, the performance of housing prices will also be divided.

  Zhang Bo believes that the overall enthusiasm of some hot cities has cooled significantly compared with the second half of last year, and this trend will continue.

However, the overall stability does not mean that there is no difference in the popularity of the various sectors, nor does it mean that the housing prices of second-hand houses have generally converged, and the market differentiation is still obvious.

(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

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