Global sales of new energy vehicles are growing rapidly, and power batteries are in short supply
Both upstream and downstream show their magical ability to expand production capacity
Deng Li, All Media Correspondent, Guangzhou Daily
This year, the automotive industry has suffered from supply chain challenges.
The current shortage of automotive chips is widely affecting the normal production of vehicle factories. Now the "core shortage" has not been alleviated, and the "battery shortage" is coming again.
Beginning in the second quarter, new energy vehicles with long sales began to experience a crisis of battery supply shortage.
Market demand exceeds supply, making power battery manufacturers become the darling of the capital market. Taking Ningde Times as an example, as of the close of July 13th, the total market value has exceeded 13 trillion yuan.
On the one hand, there is the two-way goodness of the market and capital, on the other hand, the embarrassment of insufficient supply of power batteries for new energy vehicles.
market situation:
Battery supply becomes a new bottleneck
New energy car companies such as Xiaopeng, Weilai, and Tesla mentioned all this year: battery supply will become a "bottleneck" in the second half of the year.
Earlier, in order to get the battery smoothly, Xiaopeng Motors CEO He Xiaopeng was exposed in the second quarter personally in the Ningde era for a week.
Although this matter was later denied by He Xiaopeng, it also confirmed the existence of the "battery shortage".
Ningde Times Chairman Zeng Yuqun said at the shareholder meeting held in late May this year that customers’ recent demand for goods "makes him almost unbearable".
The tight supply of power batteries has early warning signs.
In February last year, Audi publicly admitted that e-tron production was temporarily suspended due to insufficient power battery supply; during the same period, Jaguar I-PACE was also exposed to the suspension of production due to LG power battery supply problems.
This year, Tesla CEO Musk said bluntly that “Tesla will buy as much battery as the supplier gives it.”
At the beginning of March this year, Weilai founder Li Bin specifically mentioned the topic of "battery supply chain will become the biggest bottleneck" in the earnings conference call, and roughly estimated that the number of battery shortages in the second quarter will affect about 7,500 vehicles.
At present, the production capacity of many power battery manufacturers has been overloaded.
In a recent announcement, Yiwei Lithium Energy revealed that the company's existing sites and production lines have been operating at full capacity and will still be in short supply in the past year.
Probing the cause:
New energy vehicle production and sales soar
According to industry analysts, one of the main reasons for the emergence of a "battery shortage" is the rapid expansion of demand for new energy vehicles in the past year or two.
According to statistics from the market organization EV Volumes, a total of 3.24 million new energy vehicles will be sold globally in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 43%.
The rapidly growing Chinese market for new energy vehicles has greater demand for batteries.
According to the latest statistics from the China Automobile Association, from January to June this year, China's new energy vehicle production and sales both exceeded 1.2 million, a year-on-year increase of both.
Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the National Riding Federation, said that the automobile industry’s prediction of battery demand is far from the actual demand, which has exacerbated the impact of the “battery shortage”.
Wang Shijie, general manager of the first division of Guoxuan Hi-Tech Division, revealed: "The battery shortage has a greater impact. The production and sales completion rate of major domestic OEMs is different from the completion of the annual task target."
SNE Research, a global emerging energy market research organization, predicts that by 2023, the global demand for power batteries for electric vehicles will reach 406 gigawatt-hours (GWH), while the supply of power batteries is expected to be 335 gigawatt-hours (GWH), with a gap of about 18 %.
By 2025, this gap will widen to about 40%.
Upstream:
Raw material prices increase due to shortage of supply
Power batteries are in short supply, and battery raw materials have risen in price.
Previously, Zeng Yuqun said frankly at the shareholders meeting: "(Current) raw material price increases have a relatively large impact on the company's costs, but how high (materials) needs to be passed to the downstream is still under consideration."
Take lithium carbonate as an example. It is an indispensable raw material for lithium battery cathode materials and electrolytes, and its price has fluctuated greatly in the past year.
At the same time, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has also increased.
What is more noteworthy is that most of the resources of lithium, cobalt, and nickel are concentrated overseas and are monopolized by leading mining groups. The lack of electrolyte production capacity and the long production expansion cycle have led to the price fluctuations of battery raw materials.
Wang Shijie pointed out that the supply of upstream raw materials and mineral resources is difficult to achieve rapid expansion in the short term.
The shortage of batteries and rising raw materials have begun to pass downstream.
The reporter checked the market price and found that due to the increase in battery raw material prices, the cost of battery cell materials increased by about 25% to 30% compared with the same period last year, and the overall battery pack (including PACK) cost increased by about 15%-20%.
Affected by rising costs, many battery suppliers have issued price adjustment letters this year, hoping to increase battery prices.
Expansion of production capacity, new technology, there are two ways to crack
Crack 1: Expansion or self-built factories
The reporter learned that in order to alleviate the "battery shortage", many power battery companies have officially announced the expansion of production.
Ningde Times stated that it is currently expanding its production capacity, and it will take 2-3 years as long as it takes 3-5 years.
OEMs are also seeking to change. Self-built battery factories are the choice of some car companies with strong financial resources.
For example, Tesla, BMW, BYD, etc. have participated in the battle for upstream lithium resources to achieve battery self-sufficiency.
Automobile manufacturers who did not choose to develop batteries on their own also prefer to develop in-depth cooperation with battery suppliers and jointly establish battery factories.
For example, Volkswagen, the group announced on July 13 to cooperate with Guoxuan Hi-Tech to promote the industrial production of battery cells in Germany.
Data shows that there are nearly 300 solid-state battery-related companies in my country, of which as many as 48% of them have been established within 5 years, and only 20% of related companies have been established for more than 15 years, which means that the battery industry’s production capacity has been improved. Mature development still needs a process.
In a short period of time, new energy vehicles will also face the situation of "relying on grabbing" batteries.
Crack two: research and development of new forms of batteries
In addition, more stable new forms of batteries are also being explored, such as solid-state batteries.
NIO first released its self-developed solid-state battery pack in June this year, which is expected to be commercialized in the fourth quarter of 2022.
CATL also plans to release a solid-state battery named after "sodium ion" in July this year, but Zeng Yuqun admitted frankly that there is still a long way to go before the commercialization of real solid-state batteries.
In this regard, LG Chem believes that the commercialization of all solid-state batteries will be realized between 2025 and 2027; Panasonic will not launch electric vehicles using solid-state batteries until 2025.
In addition, Volkswagen Group, BMW Group, etc. also believe that it will not be until 2025 to launch prototype cars equipped with solid-state batteries.
Look at the future:
Supply chain will affect the survival of car companies
The reporter recently visited a local new energy vehicle dealership and noticed that the current supply and price of new energy vehicles are still in a stable situation, but the staff of direct-operated stores of new brands such as "Wei Xiaoli" told the reporter that if the supply of power batteries fails to ease In the long run, the price of new energy vehicles will become stronger and the delivery period will be longer. For example, a model that can be delivered in two months may be extended to four or five months.
Undoubtedly, the tension between upstream suppliers and price increases, and the strong downstream demand, the contradiction between the two will intensify, which will inevitably gradually affect the production of new energy vehicles.
For consumers, the most direct impact is that new cars cannot be mentioned as scheduled, or the price of some new cars is higher than before due to tight battery supply.
For car companies, the "battery shortage" not only hinders their pace of launching new cars, but also affects their plans to deliver new cars, and ultimately detrimental to the overall revenue market.
In any case, from "core shortage" to "battery shortage", the battle for resources for the future of automobiles is constantly being staged.
Finding a better supply chain solution and getting rid of the dilemma of being stuck is an urgent matter that affects the survival and development of every car company.