China News Service, Beijing, July 15 (Reporter Xia Bin) In 2021, China’s economic “mid-term exam” scores were released on the 15th. In the first half of the year, GDP grew by 12.7% year-on-year. Although it fell from the first quarter, it was from the two-year average. Looking at it, the average growth rate in the second quarter was 5.5%, slightly higher than the 5.0% in the first quarter, continuing to show the steady recovery of China's economy.

　　It is not easy for China to achieve such results.

In the first half of the year, the external environment was turbulent, the global commodity prices continued to rise, and the transmission effect caused the cost of Chinese companies to rise. The Fed’s interest rate hike expectations are also heating up in the near future. Production is gradually recovering, and the advantages gained by China's foreign trade due to the "substitution effect" are weakening.

　　"In the first half of the year, the economy formed a stable and improved trend, which is inseparable from the support of monetary and financial policies." Zhao Xijun, co-director of the China Capital Market Research Institute of Renmin University of China, held the "National News Agency" on the same day. It is the Forum: 2021 Mid-term Economic Situation Analysis Meeting,” said that from the data of the money supply, new credit, and social financing in the first half of the year, it has maintained a stable and accurate support for the economy.

　　Bai Jingming, a researcher and former vice president of the Chinese Academy of Fiscal Sciences, said that China's fiscal policy is also advanced and vigorous. Tax cuts have reached a peak after 2012, so institutional tax cuts have been formed before the outbreak. The policy, combined with the temporary policy of more than a year, has effectively promoted economic growth, provided public welfare to protect people's livelihood, and also helped innovation-driven development.

　　At present, the internal and external situation is complex and changeable. How can China's macro policies continue to exert force after the "mid-term exam"?

　　According to Wang Jun, chief economist of Centaline Bank, the focus of the policy in the second half of the year needs to take into account stable growth, structural adjustment and promotion of transformation, because it is a very important goal to prevent the economy from falling beyond expectations in the second half of the year.

Monetary policy has undergone some active adjustments recently. Fiscal policy should be more proactive and proactive, and maintain the necessary expansion and forward-looking. In view of the current structural recovery and uneven recovery, more fiscal efforts may be needed.

　　"What we should pay special attention to now is the price increase factor. I think in terms of fiscal policy in the second half of the year, tax cuts and fee reductions will be increased, and expenditures will be stronger than in the first half of the year." Bai Jingming believes, Expenditure expansion will proceed in an orderly manner. Judging from the fiscal data from January to May, it is possible to achieve an overpayment this year. If it is reached, it can be dispatched to the adjustment fund to create conditions for future tax cuts, fee reductions and expenditure expansion.

　　Recently, the People's Bank of China also announced the implementation of a comprehensive RRR cut, releasing about 1 trillion yuan in long-term funds.

Fidelity International Fund Manager Cheng Hao believes that the central bank's policy focus has returned to the right track from the stage of providing sufficient liquidity under the impact of the epidemic last year.

Now, as the peak period of recovery has passed, the policy focus will revert to maintaining growth and employment.

　　Cheng Shi, chief economist of ICBC International, said that in the second half of the year, China’s economy may face the pressure of “one up and down”, that is, the downward economic growth rate and the upward impact of rising prices. The general gate on interest rates and liquidity will not be loose, and flood irrigation will not be carried out; targeted support policies will not be tightened to ensure a steady stream of "blood transfusions" from financial institutions to the real economy and enhance precise drip irrigation.

　　Qu Hongbin, chief economist of HSBC Greater China, told reporters that, in fact, the RRR cut does not mean a full shift in monetary policy. It is more about supplementing liquidity and providing more support for weak links in the economic recovery, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises. Private Enterprise.

On the whole, while the economic recovery is still underway, monetary and fiscal policies are expected to remain stable but loose, and continue to provide support for economic growth.

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