Chinanews client, Beijing, July 15th (Reporter Li Jinlei) The China Economic Semi-annual Report was announced today.

　　"Strengthening while maintaining stability and improving while maintaining stability" is the judgment of the National Bureau of Statistics of China's "midterm volume" of the economy.

On July 15, the State Information Office held a press conference on the operation of the national economy in the first half of 2021.

Photo by Chinanews reporter Li Jinlei

12.7%

GDP growth in the first half of the year maintained double-digit growth

　　According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, preliminary calculations show that the gross domestic product in the first half of the year was 5,32167 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.7% at comparable prices, a decrease of 5.6 percentage points from the first quarter; an average growth rate of 5.3% in two years, an average growth rate in two years This was 0.3 percentage points faster than in the first quarter.

　　In terms of quarters, the first quarter increased by 18.3% year-on-year, and the two-year average growth was 5.0%; the second quarter increased by 7.9%, and the two-year average growth was 5.5%.

　　Although the GDP growth rate in the first half of the year has fallen from the first quarter, it still maintained a double-digit growth rate, in line with previous market expectations.

　　And from the two-year average growth rate (based on the corresponding period in 2019, the growth rate calculated using the geometric average method), the two-year average growth rate in the first half of the year is faster than that in the first quarter.

　　Wang Jun, chief economist of Centaline Bank, believes that 7.9% in the second quarter and 12.7% in the first half are very fast growth. On the one hand, the policies adopted since the beginning of the epidemic last year have been very effective and have stabilized the economic slowdown in time.

On the other hand, the proactive actions of various types of subjects are also an important reason for the rapid recovery of China's economy.

Data map.

Drawing by Zhang Jianyuan

"Troika" performed well

　　From the perspective of consumption, investment, and exports, the “troika” that drives economic growth, it has performed well.

　　In terms of consumption, the total retail sales of consumer goods in the first half of the year was 21,190.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.0%, and an average growth rate of 4.4% in two years, 0.2 percentage points faster than the first quarter.

　　In terms of investment, the national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) in the first half of the year was 25,590 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.6%, and a month-on-month increase of 0.35% in June; the two-year average growth rate was 4.4%, 1.5 percentage points faster than the first quarter.

　　In terms of exports, the total value of imports and exports in the first half of the year was 18,065.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.1%.

Among them, exports were 9,849.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.1%; imports were 8,215.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.9%.

　　It is worth noting that the scale of imports and exports in the first half of the year reached the best level in the same period in history, and increased by 22.8% compared with the same period in 2019. Monthly imports and exports have achieved positive year-on-year growth for 13 consecutive months.

　　Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce Research Institute, said that in the first half of the year, China’s foreign trade achieved a dazzling "report card." From the demand side, the economies of Europe and the United States and other overseas markets have recovered and demand has rebounded significantly; while on the supply side, In the second quarter, Vietnam and other Southeast Asian epidemics tightened again, and new virus variants appeared in India. The effect of trade diversion continued. Many production orders were transferred to China, where the epidemic was well controlled and the industrial chain was more complete.

Guangzhou Port.

Photo courtesy of Guangzhou Port Group

　　Let's look at the performance of people's livelihood indicators such as employment, income, and prices.

——The employment situation is generally stable and youth employment needs attention

　　Statistics show that in the first half of the year, 6.98 million new jobs were created in cities and towns across the country, completing 63.5% of the annual target.

In June, the nationwide surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas was 5.0%, which was the same as that in May, and was 0.7 percentage points lower than the same period last year.

　　Liu Aihua, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, pointed out that the decline in the surveyed unemployment rate in cities and towns is mainly due to the sustained and stable economic recovery and the policy of stabilizing employment.

　　The total employment volume is stable, but there are also structural contradictions.

With the arrival of the graduation season in June, the number of college graduates entering the labor market to seek jobs has increased, and employment pressure has increased significantly, which will drive the youth unemployment rate to rise significantly.

In June, the surveyed unemployment rate for urban youth aged 16-24 was 15.4%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month and the same as the same month of the previous year.

Among them, the unemployment rate is even higher for people aged 20-24 with a college degree and above.

　　Liu Aihua said that in the next stage, we must adhere to the employment priority policy, continue to implement the policy of reducing burdens, stabilizing jobs and expanding employment, strengthen employment assistance for key groups, optimize employment services, expand employment capacity, and consolidate employment stability.

The average and median per capita disposable income of residents in the first half of 2021.

——The growth rate of residents' income is basically synchronized with the growth rate of the economy

　　Data show that in the first half of the year, the national per capita disposable income of residents was 17,642 yuan, an actual increase of 12.0% year-on-year after deducting price factors, and an average growth of 5.2% in two years, which was slightly lower than the economic growth rate and basically synchronized.

　　Liu Aihua pointed out that the actual growth rate of national per capita disposable income in the first half of the year was basically in line with the average growth rate of 5.3% of GDP in the first half of the year.

Considering that we have been hit by the epidemic since last year, it can be said that it is not easy to achieve a per capita income growth rate of 5.2%.

　　She believes that to achieve this growth, it can be said that there are factors of economic recovery that have led to an increase in employment and thus an increase in income. At the same time, there are also policy support factors that have increased the protection of people's livelihood in various places.

At the same time, there are the efforts of various economic entities themselves.

The picture shows consumers buying pork.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Zhang Yun

——Low price increase, pork as a pull-down factor

　　Data show that in the first half of the year, the national consumer price (CPI) rose 0.5% year-on-year, and remained flat in the first quarter.

Among them, the national consumer price rose 1.1% year-on-year in June, 0.2 percentage points lower than that in May, and it was the first time this year to drop.

　　Such a low price increase has contributed to the drop in food prices, especially pork prices.

Pork prices have fallen for 9 consecutive months year-on-year, with an average drop of 19.3% in the first half of the year, affecting the CPI drop by about 0.45 percentage points.

　　At present, the price of pork on the market is obviously falling, and the price of pork in some places has even fallen below 10 yuan a catty.

　　Liu Xuezhi, a senior macro analyst at the Financial Research Center of the Bank of Communications, believes that the CPI carry-over factor has dropped significantly in the third quarter, coupled with the low price of pork, the upward momentum of CPI will weaken.

Taking into account the gradual increase in non-food prices, the CPI may remain at about 2%, and the price increase is relatively moderate.

　　Liu Aihua judged that, on the whole, food prices will not have much pressure on the whole under the condition that there is another bumper harvest of grain and the price of pork remains stable.

There are foundations and conditions for maintaining a moderate price increase throughout the year, and there are also foundations and conditions for achieving the annual control target of about 3%.

(Finish)