Has the pork price bottomed out from Level 3 to Level 1 warning?

  Expert: This round of "pig cycle" may enter the middle and late stages

  On June 16, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a three-level warning for excessively falling pig prices.

The pig-to-grain ratio is 5.88:1, entering the three-level warning zone for excessive decline set by the "Improving the Government Pork Reserve Regulation Mechanism and Doing a Good Job in Maintaining Supply and Stabilizing Prices in the Pork Market" (hereinafter referred to as the "Plan"). It is recommended that farms (households) be scientific Arrange production and operation decisions to maintain pig production capacity at a reasonable level.

  On June 30, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that from June 21 to 25, the national average pig-to-food ratio was 4.90:1.

It has entered the first-level warning range for excessive decline (below 5:1) set by the "Preplan", and the central and local governments will start the work of purchasing and storing pork reserves.

  In less than two weeks, the warning level of excessive fall in live pig prices rose from level three to level one.

  The reporter recently visited the offline pork retail market in Chengdu and learned that the current excessive drop in pork prices has affected the sales of pork and even other meat varieties.

Some experts believe that the situation of this "pig cycle" is special, and the price of pork is already in a trough.

  Pork sales fell along with prices, and aquatic product sales were affected by the correlation

  The prices of some farmers’ markets in the main urban area announced by the Chengdu Development and Reform Commission show that on July 6, 2021, the price of lean meat will be between 17-22 yuan per catty, and the price of pork belly will be between 12-17 yuan per catty, and large rows will be per catty. The price is between 19-27 yuan. Compared with the data on January 5, 2021, the price of pork belly has been reduced by about half.

  According to the monitoring of the Sichuan Provincial Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the pig price trend in Sichuan is basically the same as that of the whole country.

As of June 25, the prices of live pigs and pork in Sichuan were lower than the national level, falling to 13.58 yuan/kg and 23.34 yuan/kg, respectively. Compared with the highs at the beginning of this year, the declines reached 52.3% and 55.6%, respectively. Sichuan Pig Food The ratio fell from 12.6:1, a January high, to 4.8:1, a June low.

  In Anju Tianya Stone Vegetable Market, a fishery merchant told reporters that while pork prices have fallen, fish sales have continued to fall, and sales in June have dropped by about 50% compared to January.

Some poultry merchants said that the demand for poultry meat is relatively stable, and the price has not changed much compared with the beginning of the year.

  A number of pork merchants in the Daxue Road Farmers Market told reporters that at the same time that pork prices fell, pork sales in June fell by about 30% compared with January.

Some pork merchants said that the price of pork belly is around 20 yuan per catty, which is “normal”. The price in June was too low, which affected sales.

  The price of pork is affected by both the slaughter volume and the price of feed

  Muyuan Foods Co., Ltd. released a live pig sales briefing for May 2021, showing that the company sold 3.475 million live pigs in June, with sales revenue of 5.707 billion yuan.

In contrast, in March 2021, the company sold 2.833 million pigs, with a sales income of 7.058 billion yuan. Sales increased but sales revenue declined.

  Muyuan mentioned in its 2020 annual report that the domestic hog breeding industry has obvious cyclical characteristics, and the cyclical fluctuations of hog prices are obvious, generally 3-4 years as a cycle.

In 2019, due to the "pig cycle", the African swine fever epidemic and other factors, the number of live pigs for slaughter declined, and the price of pigs showed a trend of low before high, and the annual average price increased significantly year-on-year.

Entering 2020, the industry's production capacity is showing a gradual recovery trend, and the price of live pigs is showing a trend of falling from a high level.

  A person in charge of a pig farm in Jingyan County, Sichuan, told reporters that the current low price of pigs and rising feed prices have resulted in unsatisfactory operating conditions.

"The price of feed began to rise in October last year. At present, the price of feed per ton has risen to about 800 yuan. At the same time, due to the low price of pork, pigs that could be slaughtered in the past about 200 kilograms are now raised to nearly 400 kilograms in order to wait for the price to rise. After the slaughter is released, the cost of feeding will increase. At the same time, the cost of materials and breeders is also rising to prevent and control African swine fever."

  The "Preplan" proposes that when the pig-to-food price ratio is lower than 6:1, the National Development and Reform Commission will issue a three-level warning; when the pig-to-food price ratio is at 5:1 to 6:1 for 3 consecutive weeks, or the stock of sows can be reproduced. When the month-on-year decrease reaches 5%, or the number of breeding sows has decreased by 5%-10% for three consecutive months, a secondary warning will be issued; when the price of pigs and food is lower than 5:1, the number of breeding sows may be When a single month's year-on-year decline reaches 10%, or a cumulative decline of more than 10% in the number of breeding sows for three consecutive months, a first-level warning will be issued.

  trend

  Experts judge that the price of pork is still fluctuating up and down, but it is in the trough from the perspective of the cycle.

  On July 9th, at the press conference of the Ten Measures to Stabilize Live Pig Production in Sichuan Province, Li Chunhua, Chief Livestock Pastor of the Sichuan Provincial Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, emphasized that production services, disease prevention, processed products, preparations for purchasing and storage, and credit support will be started. , Stable pig production.

  Engaged in the research on the stable supply mechanism of the pig industry for many years, Wang Fang, a professor at the School of Management of Sichuan Agricultural University, believes that this round of "pig cycle" is unusual, and the "supply and demand malformation" in it has made a cliff-like decline in pork prices inevitable.

"After the outbreak of African swine fever in August 2018, local governments took precise prevention and control measures in the circulation field, but subsequent preferential policies for social and industrial capital, etc., brought a new round of investment in pig breeding. The concentration that followed The slaughter market has resulted in low pork prices but high costs."

  "After the African swine fever epidemic, after cleaning up and rectifying, by the second half of 2020, 60% of the pig production capacity will be in the hands of large-scale breeding enterprises." Wang Fang said that under the background of large-scale breeding, breeding enterprises control output. The effect is difficult to foresee, but due to the advantages of scale and capital, these companies can choose to refrigerate or deep-process the pork to control the volume of slaughter.

  How soon can pork prices return to normal levels?

Wang Fang said that based on empirical judgment, with the market's self-regulation and policy tools gradually taking effect, this round of "pig cycle" has entered the middle and late stages, and pork prices will still fluctuate up and down in the short term, but in the long run it has been in a trough.

  Wang Fang believes that the unified and coordinated purchasing and storage work at the national level will have an important positive effect on the stability of pork prices, but it is also necessary to see that pork prices are under pressure in the long-term.

  Chengdu Commercial Daily-Red Star News Reporter Ye Yan and Wang Peizhe

  Related reports

  The price of freshwater fish is still 30% more expensive than in previous years

  Expert: Expected to fall further in September

  The price of pork dropped significantly in the first half of this year, but the price of freshwater fish quietly rose.

On July 12, the reporter visited the vegetable markets and supermarkets in Chengdu and found that the prices of freshwater fish such as silver carp, grass carp, crucian carp, and sea bass currently on the market were still at a high level, but they had fallen back compared to 10 days ago.

Among them, the price of silver carp dropped to 9 yuan/jin, grass carp 10 yuan/jin, silver carp 14 yuan/jin, crucian carp 16 yuan/jin, sea bass 25 yuan/jin, and mandarin fish 65 yuan/jin.

Experts said that the price drop is related to the listing of Xinyu, but the price will continue for a period of time. It is expected that the price will fall further when Xinyu is listed on the market in September.

  Ms. Li, who was buying fish at Xiangrongqiao Farmer’s Market in Jinjiang District, Chengdu, told reporters that because her family loves to eat fish, she has to buy fish every three to five. However, after the Spring Festival this year, the price of freshwater fish has continued to rise. In the past 60 yuan can be bought Two silver carp, but now I only bought one silver carp weighing 4 catties for 69 yuan.

  Ms. Li said that last year a catty of silver carp was less than 10 yuan, silver carp and grass carp were cheaper. Occasionally, the family wanted to eat something good and would buy sea bass. At that time, the price was only 20 yuan per catty, but now it has risen to 30. Yuan/jin.

"Hopefully, the price (freshwater fish) will drop again in the next few months."

  The reporter saw at the scene that the freshwater fish sold by the store mainly included silver carp, silver carp, crucian carp, bass, etc., of which silver carp was 18 yuan per catty, silver carp 9 yuan per catty, crucian carp 17 yuan per catty, and sea bass 30 yuan. /jin.

The shop owner told reporters that the price of freshwater fish began to rise after the Spring Festival this year, the highest price appeared at the beginning of this month, and then there was a downward trend.

  The reporter saw in the Wal-Mart supermarket near Shiren North Road in Qingyang District that the supermarket’s aquatic product area gave 14.22 yuan/jin of grass carp to the tip of the “hot price.

For other freshwater fish, silver carp is 19.3 yuan/jin, crucian carp is 17.8 yuan/jin, and sea bass is 33.8 yuan/carp.

The staff told reporters that the current price of freshwater fish has dropped by about 3-4 yuan, and overall it is still about 30% higher than in previous years.

  According to Wu Xiaoying, owner of Huixin Aquatic Products Store at Qingshiqiao Market in Chengdu, the price of freshwater fish this year is the highest in the past 20 years.

In previous years, silver carp and grass carp never exceeded RMB 10, but this year the price of grass carp in their shop exceeded RMB 14 at the highest price, let alone other fish.

  What are the reasons behind the increase in freshwater fish prices?

According to the relevant person in charge of the Sichuan Fisheries Bureau, Sichuan needs to purchase about 500,000 tons of freshwater fish from Hubei and other provinces every year. The increase in freshwater fish prices is mainly caused by the following factors: First, the increase in cost is due to feed and labor. In the past, the price of silver carp from Hubei Province was only 1.7 yuan/kg, and this year it rose to 3.7 yuan/kg, which directly caused the overall price increase.

Second, affected by the removal of nets in reservoirs in major production areas such as Hubei, the production of freshwater fish in this area has decreased correspondingly, and the balance of supply and demand has been broken.

Third, starting from this year, the Yangtze River has entered a period of "ten years of ban on fishing", and freshwater fish production has further declined.

Fourth, after the epidemic has gradually improved, the catering market has ushered in recovery, and market demand has greatly increased, which has caused this round of freshwater fish prices to rise.

  What is the future price trend?

The person in charge said that in the short term, the supply of freshwater fish is still tight and prices will continue to remain high.

It is expected that in September, freshwater fish prices will fall further after the new fishes begin to go on the market, but whether they can fall back to the price before the rise depends on market conditions.

  Chengdu Commercial Daily-Red Star News Reporter Yan Yuheng

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