Expert: A comprehensive reduction in RRR will promote stable economic development
News from this newspaper (China Youth Daily and China Youth Daily reporter Wang Yejie) On July 11, the Advanced Research Institute of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics released the "2021 China Macroeconomic Situation Analysis and Forecast Mid-year Report" (hereinafter referred to as the "mid-year report") ").
With the theme of "China's Economy under the New Pattern: Changes and Responses", the mid-year report analyzed how my country's economy rebounded well in the first half of the year and the macro indicators recovered steadily. At the same time, how to deal with various unfavorable factors in the world and the superposition of deep-seated domestic problems The complexity and long-term nature of the company will accurately predict potential economic and financial risks, and properly prepare for various difficult and challenging situations.
The reporter noticed that just last weekend, the news of the central bank's overall RRR cut aroused extensive discussions among economic circles.
In response, Sheng Songcheng, a professor at Shanghai University of Finance and Economics and former director of the Survey and Statistics Department of the People's Bank of China, said in the release of the mid-year report that a comprehensive reduction in the RRR can promote stable economic development.
He said that the central bank's move is to support the development of the real economy and promote the steady and slow decline of comprehensive financing costs.
"In the first quarter of this year, China's GDP grew by 18.3% year-on-year, and in the second quarter is expected to achieve a high growth rate of about 8%. However, in the second half of the year, China's economic growth rate may drop to 5%-7%, consumption recovery is slow, and investment is less than expected. This year, China The fiscal policy is weaker than last year, and the growth rate of fiscal expenditure is significantly lower than the growth rate of income. This is related to the slowdown in the issuance of local government bonds, but it also reflects the limited fiscal potential and monetary policy should be coordinated and supported." Sheng Songcheng said, China in the short term Inflationary pressure is low and asset prices are relatively stable. This is a necessary condition for a stable and loose monetary policy in the second half of the year.
The report shows that China’s macroeconomic operations in the first half of the year showed the following characteristics: consumption potential was released steadily, aging slowed down consumption growth, investment margins slowed down, manufacturing investment turned positive, real estate investment was under pressure, real estate companies defaulted, and real estate financial risk prevention policies Under real estate funding sources are tight; the growth rate of imports and exports continues to rise, the trade surplus has risen sharply compared with the same period last year, and the gap between the growth rates of general trade and processing trade has further widened, and China’s export status in the global value chain will face difficulties; the job market The recovery, the income gap between urban and rural areas has narrowed, urban inequality has increased, the CPI has risen moderately, the PPI has risen rapidly, the scissors gap has rapidly expanded, and the commodity price index has increased; the scale of foreign exchange reserves has been generally stable, the two-way fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate has increased, and the monetary policy has been flexible and precise , Reasonable and appropriate; The education level of the labor force has increased significantly, but the mismatch phenomenon is serious, the wage "punishment" effect of over-education is significant, and the aging trend is obvious; the household sector continues to increase leverage, the proportion of housing loans is increasing, and household investment channels are increasingly narrowed; The banking system is generally stable, the level of risk spillovers from small and medium-sized banks continues to rise, the pressure of local government debt repayment is greater, and the misallocation of financial resources is serious. It is urgent to promote market-oriented reform of the financial system to release the potential for economic development.
Source: China Youth Daily