(After viewing things) Will the globalization pattern of the semiconductor industry chain change?

  China News Service, Beijing, July 13th, title: Will the globalization pattern of the semiconductor industry chain change?

  China News Agency reporter Liu Yuying

  Since last year, the United States, Europe, Japan, and South Korea have put forward new semiconductor investment plans and development goals, and the actions of various countries to expand semiconductor supply chains have further increased.

  However, experts believe that the globalization trend of the semiconductor industry chain is irreversible, and it is difficult for various countries to "close their doors" to build the entire industry chain; the pattern of the semiconductor industry concentrated in a few countries and regions will not change in the future.

Many countries seek "independent and controllable"

  In early June of this year, the US Senate passed the "American Innovation and Competition Act of 2021."

The bill will separately approve more than 50 billion U.S. dollars of expenditure to strengthen the production and research and development of the United States in the field of semiconductor and telecommunications equipment.

The bill is currently awaiting passage by the US House of Representatives.

  In December last year, the telecommunications ministers of the 17 European Union countries signed the "Joint Statement on European Processor and Semiconductor Technology Plans," announcing that they would invest 145 billion euros in semiconductor research in the next two to three years.

  In May of this year, South Korea also released the "K Semiconductor" strategy, planning to achieve the goal of a comprehensive semiconductor power in 2030.

  Semiconductor is an industry with an extremely mature global industrial chain division of labor, but under the influence of political factors and the global core shortage, countries are thinking about how to establish and strengthen local supply chains to ensure supply chain security.

  Yang Fan, President of Zhongcheng Think Tank, said in an exclusive interview with a reporter from China News Agency that in recent years, the United States has often used policy prohibitions to influence the market. This has made countries unprecedentedly aware of the issue of "digital sovereignty" or "independent and controllable". Therefore, many countries have begun to seek freedom. Build a semiconductor industry chain.

  On the other hand, chips will affect national and industry information security.

Due to the hegemonic behavior of the United States, chip importing countries such as Europe and Asia are becoming more and more worried about products originating from the United States.

  The epidemic has also highlighted the strategic position of chips.

In the past year, global automotive, IT, home appliances and other industries have suffered from chip shortages, and more than 100 industries have been affected. This has also prompted countries to strengthen the construction of chip manufacturing links.

  Yang Fan said that no one can be alone in the semiconductor industry chain.

When anti-globalization is on the rise, it is not surprising that everyone is in danger and shouting "independent and controllable".

Growth of Asian industry influence

  At present, the United States is in a strong position in the global semiconductor value chain.

But in the field of manufacturing, US chip manufacturing will only account for 12% of the world in 2020, which is much lower than in the 1990s.

  According to relevant data, in 2020, Taiwan of China ranks first in global chip production capacity, with a ratio of 22%; followed by South Korea, reaching 21%; China and Japan are both 15%, and the United States is 12%.

  Yang Fan said that at present, chip manufacturing is mainly concentrated in Taiwan, South Korea and China.

The influence of Asia on the industry is growing, especially the manufacturing capacity of chips has been significantly enhanced to a significant degree.

  What impact will it have on the future global semiconductor industry structure?

  Yang Fan believes that although the EU has put forward a series of safeguard plans, there are too many participating countries, and countries usually give priority to their own perspectives, which hinders the progress of decision-making and is not conducive to promoting industrial development.

  Cost is also a key factor.

The United States actively promotes the construction of foundries, but due to factors such as the high cost of blue-collar workers and lack of development opportunities, the United States will not be able to build another "TSMC" in a short period of time.

  "If multiple countries build their own industrial chains, it will undoubtedly increase the cost of the global semiconductor industry and reduce the rate of return on investment. Not every country or region can successfully invest in the semiconductor industry. In the future, the semiconductor industry will be concentrated in a few countries and regions. Will not change," Yang Fan said.

  A strong market is a necessary condition for achieving autonomy and controllability, and China's huge market has laid a foundation for achieving autonomy and controllability.

China is already making efforts in semiconductor manufacturing, and there are dozens of fabs planned in various regions.

Yang Fan believes that it will take 10 to 20 years or even longer for China to build the entire industrial chain.

  Generally speaking, the semiconductor industry is a special industry, and no one of the participants in the industry chain can move forward alone.

For example, although the United States is very strong in terms of capital, technology, and intellectual property rights, its manufacturing is mainly concentrated in Asia. If TSMC is interrupted, Qualcomm, Apple and other companies can't change it.

  Yang Fan believes that China needs to strengthen cooperation with neighboring countries such as South Korea and Japan to seek common development in the semiconductor field.

Under normal circumstances, the globalization trend of the semiconductor industry chain is irreversible, and it is impossible for various countries to "close themselves" to build the entire industry chain.