"Mother Yang" sent sugar, and the expected RRR cut came down quickly.

　　On July 9, the People's Bank of China decided to lower the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points on July 15, 2021 (excluding financial institutions that have implemented a 5% deposit reserve ratio).

The RRR cut this time is a comprehensive RRR cut, releasing about 1 trillion yuan in long-term funds.

　　The adjustment of the deposit reserve ratio is one of the three major monetary policy tools of the central bank. Because of its strong signal significance and huge impact, it is often mainly used for macroeconomic countercyclical adjustment.

However, in the opinion of industry experts, the overall RRR cut is not to ease the downward pressure on the macro economy, but to effectively hedge the impact of rising commodity prices on the production and operation of enterprises.

　　The market generally believes that the central bank’s current RRR cut will not have a direct impact on the property market, the stock market, and the foreign exchange market. After the RRR cut, the main investment direction of incremental funds will still be implemented in accordance with regulatory policies. In terms of market impact, the capital structure of financial institutions will be further optimized. Enhance financial service capabilities and better support the real economy.

　　Regarding the overall RRR cut, Wang Yiming, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China, said in an interview with the media: “This overall RRR cut is a routine liquidity operation after the return of monetary policy to normal. The orientation of prudent monetary policy has not changed.”

　　Release long-term funds of about 1 trillion yuan

　　The central bank stated that since the beginning of this year, the prices of some commodities have continued to rise, and some small and micro enterprises are facing operating difficulties such as rising costs. China adheres to the stability and effectiveness of monetary policy. The support of micro-enterprises.

　　The RRR cut released about 1 trillion yuan in long-term funds, effectively increasing the stable funding sources for financial institutions to support the real economy.

　　The relevant person in charge of the central bank responded to a reporter’s question and said that the RRR cut is a comprehensive reduction. Except for some county-level legal person financial institutions that have implemented a 5% deposit reserve ratio, other financial institutions generally lower the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points. The quasi-release of long-term funds is about 1 trillion yuan.

The main reason for not lowering the deposit reserve ratio of some financial institutions is that the 5% deposit reserve ratio is currently the lowest among financial institutions. Maintaining this low level is conducive to financial institutions' support for the real economy and their own steady operation.

　　Li Chao, chief economist of Zheshang Securities, believes that the RRR cut can release stable and interest-free long-term funds to the banking system, which can alleviate banks’ long-term liquidity bottlenecks, increase bank credit supply capabilities, and directly reduce bank funding costs. Promote banks in the process of providing credit to the real economy, especially small and micro enterprises, to control the comprehensive financing costs including various fees, and strive to "stabilize and decrease" financing costs in the second half of the year, and then hedge upstream raw materials to a certain extent Cost pressures brought by price increases to small and micro enterprises.

　　The central bank stated that the purpose of this RRR cut is to optimize the capital structure of financial institutions, improve financial service capabilities, and better support the real economy.

First, while maintaining reasonable and abundant liquidity, the financial institutions should strengthen their capital allocation capabilities to create a suitable monetary and financial environment for high-quality development and supply-side structural reforms.

The second is to adjust the financing structure of the central bank, effectively increase the long-term stable funding sources for financial institutions to support the real economy, and guide financial institutions to actively use the RRR cut funds to increase support for small and micro enterprises.

The third is that the RRR cut has reduced the capital cost of financial institutions by about 13 billion yuan per year, and the transmission of financial institutions can promote the reduction of social comprehensive financing costs.

　　Macro analyst Zhou Maohua told CBN that the RRR cut is good for the real economy. The central bank’s RRR cut will release long-term, low-cost funds, which will help strengthen the ability to create money and credit credit, support the real economy, stimulate the vitality of micro entities, and protect the economy. The main body of the market, stabilizing employment and promoting domestic demand.

　　How to affect stocks, bonds, foreign exchange, and housing?

　　For investors, how will the follow-up of the overall RRR cut affect the stock market, bond market, foreign exchange market, and property market?

　　Judging from the market reaction, experts generally believe that the RRR cut has little impact on real estate.

　　Lian Ping, chief economist and dean of the research institute of Zhixin Investment, told China Business News that for real estate, the commercial bank real estate loan concentration management system has been launched for half a year. After the overall RRR cut, credit funds have not directly entered the real estate market. possibility.

　　Zhou Maohua also believes that the impact on the property market is limited. “There is no flood in the country, and the focus of monetary policy is still on small and micro private enterprises and the manufacturing sector; the property market control policies remain high-pressure.”

　　In addition to real estate, how will the RMB exchange rate go?

In this regard, Lian Ping believes that for the exchange rate, RRR cuts have macro-regulatory implications, and will eventually have a loose macroeconomic policy impact on the economy.

If the RRR cut is large, the policy effect is obvious. There have been many (or substantial) reductions in the reserve ratio in the past. This effect will be reflected in the follow-up, but the impact of a single adjustment will be small.

In addition, the RMB exchange rate is supported by the economy. The current balance of payments is basically balanced, and the trade in goods maintains a relatively high surplus. Compared with the US dollar, the RMB interest rate is still relatively high. Therefore, the impact of the overall RRR cut on the exchange rate is very limited.

　　"The impact on the exchange rate is neutral." Zhou Maohua also believes that the main reason is that domestic fundamentals have remained stable, the RRR cut has not changed the sound policy tone, the policy has not changed, China and the United States have maintained wide interest margins, etc., and the RMB exchange rate continues to be at a reasonable equilibrium level. Fluctuations nearby.

　　For the capital market, from the perspective of the A-share market trend after the previous RRR cuts, the data shows that there have been 15 comprehensive RRR cuts since November 30, 2011 (excluding the latest one). The day after the RRR cut was announced, In the next 3 days and the next 5 days, the basic rise and fall accounted for half of them, and the cumulative rise probability in the next 10 days was only 47%.

　　As the time and magnitude of the central bank's overall RRR cut have exceeded market expectations, market analysts believe that the impact of the current RRR cut on the stock market is relatively warm.

　　"For the impact of the stock market, if the reserve ratio is lowered in the medium and long term, funds will still be looser than the current situation. With the passage of time and the impact on market psychology, it will have some positive effects on the capital market. A warm breeze," Lian Ping said.

　　Li Qilin, director of the Hongta Securities Research Institute and chief economist, analyzed that due to the consideration of long-term economic transformation needs, the governance of hidden debts and the high pressure of real estate regulation will continue for a long time, and it is expected that the structure will appear in the future. The pattern of "sexual tight credit + wide currency" is very beneficial to the bond market.

　　Zhou Maohua believes that further consolidation of the foundation for economic recovery, improved corporate earnings prospects, and further improvement in market liquidity will help boost market risk appetite.

　　Monetary policy orientation has not changed

　　Of course, the overall RRR cut does not mean a change in the orientation of prudent monetary policy.

　　On the one hand, it is the impact of rising commodity prices on the production and operation of enterprises, on the other hand, it faces the pressure of steady growth.

This means that in order to prevent the spread of inflation expectations, it is essential to maintain the pertinence and stability of monetary policy.

　　From the perspective of CPI and PPI data, in June CPI rose 1.1% year-on-year, PPI rose 8.8% year-on-year, and the scissors gap was flat at 7.7% last month. This is a new high since the data. The top of the PPI is basically confirmed, and the CPI will continue to rise moderately; in addition, In June, the overall growth of currency, credit, and social financing exceeded expectations, reflecting the increase in financial support for the real economy.

　　The relevant person in charge of the central bank pointed out that the orientation of prudent monetary policy has not changed.

The RRR cut is a routine operation after the monetary policy returns to normal. A part of the funds released will be used by financial institutions to return the maturing medium-term loan facility (MLF), and part of the funds will be used by financial institutions to make up for taxes in mid-to-late July. The liquidity gap caused by the peak period will increase the proportion of long-term funds of financial institutions, and the total liquidity of the banking system will remain basically stable.

At present, my country's economy is stable and improving. The People's Bank of China insists on the stability and effectiveness of monetary policy, adheres to normal monetary policy, and does not engage in flooding.

　　Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, believes that at present, the global commodity price rise has slowed down. Coupled with the regulation of a series of domestic policies to ensure supply and stabilize prices, the rise of commodities has been basically controlled, and the PPI has reached its peak this year. .

With the gradual increase of the base, the PPI is expected to maintain a trend of volatility and decline in the second half of the year, but the rise in international oil prices still brings uncertainty to imported inflation.

Subject to the fall in the price of pork and other foods, the CPI is likely to maintain a moderate growth trend during the year, the inflation level is generally controllable, and the overall impact on monetary policy is limited.

　　Zhong Zhengsheng, chief economist of Ping An Securities, predicts that in the second half of the year, China’s monetary policy should still adhere to "self-oriented", focus on the "shortcomings" of the Chinese economy, and maintain a sufficient degree of "underpinning", which should become "self-oriented" One of the most important considerations.

　　Regarding the trend of monetary policy in the second half of the year, market analysis believes that the current economic and financial operations still need monetary policy support. In the second half of the year, the steady slowdown of economic growth has become a high probability event, and the need for a moderately loose monetary policy is rising.

　　Lian Ping believes that it is necessary to reduce the RRR 1-2 times in the third quarter, reduce the reserve ratio by 0.5 to 1.0 percentage points, and release a total of about 1.1 trillion to 2.2 trillion yuan in long-term available funds, and July is the first RRR cut. window period.

　　Cheng Shi, chief economist and managing director of ICBC International, said that from the internal environment, China’s economy will face the pressure of “one up and down” in the second half of the year, that is, the downward economic growth rate and the upward impact of inflation. "We will respond in a targeted manner, and the benchmark interest rate and liquidity will not be loosened, and flooding will not be carried out.

　　Author: Du Chuan