Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client, July 12 (Xiong Siyi) At 24:00 on July 12, a new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open.
Based on the forecasts of many institutions, this round of domestic refined oil prices is likely to rise slightly. This will be the tenth rise since 2021 and the third consecutive rise.
Data Map: Photo by Sino-Singapore Jingwei Gas Station
In this round of pricing cycle, the long and short sides have been in fierce game, and the international crude oil futures prices fluctuate significantly.
From June 29 to July 5, international oil prices continued to rise, and the price of WTI crude oil futures soared to US$76.98, the highest point in the past six years.
International oil prices turned down on July 6, marking the biggest drop since the end of May.
After July 8, international oil prices rose again.
Zhuo Chuang Information Zhang Zhaoxin analyzed and pointed out that since this pricing cycle, OPEC has had differences in the rate of increase in production. The production policy meeting of the allies has been postponed. The market is worried that the UAE will withdraw from OPEC. Oil prices show a high diving market.
Zhang Zhaoxin also pointed out that the recent increase in U.S. gasoline demand to the highest level on record, and the sharp drop in U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories, has certain support for the oil market.
Affected by the above news, many domestic agencies predict that the retail price of domestic refined oil products is likely to continue to rise, but the increase may be small.
Zhongyu Information predicts that the retail price of refined oil products will increase by RMB 75/ton at 24:00 on July 12.
As a result, the cost of travel for car owners has further increased. According to the estimate of the capacity of a general fuel tank of 50L, it will cost an extra 2.7 yuan to fill a tank of gasoline after 12 days.
Longzhong Information analyst Li Yan predicts that the domestic refined oil price adjustment on July 12 corresponds to a theoretical increase of about 65 yuan/ton.
Li Yan pointed out that the gasoline prices of 92# and 95# at Sinopec gas stations in Shandong are currently 7.06 and 7.57 yuan/liter respectively, and the current round of retail price increase is expected to be around 0.05 yuan/liter.
Based on this estimate, a full tank of gasoline will cost 2.5 yuan more.
The Sino-Singapore Jingwei client combed and found that since 2021, domestic refined oil prices have been adjusted for twelve rounds, with a total increase of 1,405 yuan/ton for gasoline and 1,355 yuan/ton for diesel, showing a pattern of “nine ups, one down, two strandeds”. .
If this round of upward adjustment is expected to be implemented, the 2021 price adjustment bureau will show "ten ups and one down and two strandeds."
Looking ahead, Zhongyu Information quoted a report from JPMorgan Chase that OPEC+ will eventually reach an agreement in the next few weeks, agreeing to increase daily production by 400,000 barrels per month for the remainder of 2021, which will have a certain impact on crude oil prices.
Zhongyu Information also pointed out that due to global inflation risks, changes in the value of the US dollar and the liquidity of venture capital assets will depress crude oil prices.
The next round of price adjustment window will be opened at 24:00 on July 26, 2021. Li Yan believes that OPEC+ internal differences are not expected to be delayed for too long. The Iranian issue is difficult to settle quickly, and the fundamentals are still supported. The next round of finished products is expected. The probability of oil price increases is greater.
(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)
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