China-Singapore Jingwei Client, July 9th (Wang Yongle) Today (9th), the National Bureau of Statistics will announce the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June.
Many institutions predict that the year-on-year increase in CPI in June will stop "four consecutive rises."
Image source: National Bureau of Statistics website
June CPI fell slightly year-on-year or slightly
After entering 2021, the CPI changed from a rise to a fall in January due to the "wrong month of the Spring Festival" in January, and then rebounded for four consecutive months, rising from a negative growth at the beginning of the year to 1.3% in May.
For the upcoming June CPI data, Wind data shows that as of July 8, the average forecast of the June CPI year-on-year increase by 20 institutions was 1.2%.
Among them, the highest forecast value is 1.7% given by China Merchants Securities, and the lowest is 0.7% given by Peking University National Economic Research Center.
In terms of sub-items, institutions generally believe that the food item is a drag on the June CPI, especially the decline in pork prices.
However, there are certain differences in the judgment of the increase of non-food items.
According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Commerce, from May 31st to June 6th, June 7th to 13th, June 14th to 20th, June 21st to 27th, the national market price of edible agricultural products was higher than the previous week (the same below) They were down by 1.1%, 1.3%, 1.8%, and 1.3%, respectively. The wholesale price of pork dropped by 4.6%, 4.8%, 6.3%, and 7.1% over the same period.
In the above four weeks, the wholesale price of refined oil continued to rise, among which the price of 92 gasoline rose by 0.5%, 0.2%, 1.4%, and 0.1% respectively.
The China Merchants Macro Report believes that the contribution of tail-lifting factors will fall after rising to a year-high of 1.0 percentage point in June.
It is comprehensively predicted that the CPI in June will be 1.7%, of which the food item will fall by 0.2%, and the non-food item will rise 1.8%.
Huachuang Macro's Zhang Yu team expects that the CPI in June will fall to around 1.1% year-on-year.
Food items, except for aquatic products, fell across the board, and pork prices accelerated.
Among non-food items, the rise in domestic gasoline prices has provided certain support to CPI.
In addition, the core CPI is expected to further rebound slightly to around 1.1% year-on-year.
The forward-looking report of CITIC Securities also pointed out that the drag of pork on CPI has further deepened, which is expected to drag down about 0.47 percentage points. With the advent of summer, the prices of seasonal products such as vegetables and fresh fruits have also fallen to varying degrees, although the core CPI may still remain The pace of a mild recovery, but the overall CPI year-on-year readings may drop to a certain extent.
The Guoxin Macro Report predicts that in June, the CPI for food items will decrease by about 2.5% from the previous month, non-food items will increase by about 0.2% from the previous month, and the CPI may fall to 1.1% year-on-year.
How will CPI go in the future?
Looking forward to the second half of 2021, Bohai Securities analyst Zhou Xi believes that although pork prices are expected to stabilize and rebound, the overall environment where supply continues to recover and demand remains stable means that pork prices have limited room for rebound, and its driving force for CPI year-on-year growth is not Obviously; the gradual increase in the supply of bulk commodities is still a high probability event, and the gradual closing of the supply and demand gap will suppress the uplifting space of its prices; in terms of transmission, both the capacity utilization rate and the economic benefit indicators of industrial enterprises above designated size indicate that upstream prices are in the middle The transmission of downstream prices is still difficult to smooth.
Gao Ruidong, chief macro economist at Everbright Securities, believes that with the implementation of pork purchasing and storage and the arrival of the pork consumption peak season in the third quarter, there is limited room for pig prices to fall in the short term.
Tianfeng Securities also believes that the pork supply and demand relationship is expected to be rebalanced in the second half of the year. The current pig price has reached the bottom area and is expected to stabilize and rise in the third quarter.
In the second half of the year, the rhythm of CPI is first down and then up. Food CPI has little upward pressure. The main driving force for the recovery is the core CPI. It is expected that the monthly high of CPI will not be significantly higher than 3%.
Central Bank Governor Yi Gang stated at the 13th Lujiazui Forum in June that, judging by various factors, this year's CPI trend in my country was low and then high, and the annual average increase in CPI is expected to be less than 2%.
(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)
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