Chinanews client, Beijing, July 9th (Reporter Xie Yiguan) According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on July 9th, in June 2021, the national consumer price (CPI) increased by 1.1% year-on-year, and the increase was 0.2 points lower than the previous month. Percentage points, which is the first drop in this year.
CPI ups and downs chart.
From the National Bureau of Statistics
"Second Brother" rides on the slide, June CPI's year-on-year growth rate dropped
Entering 2021, the CPI continues to rise year-on-year. Why does it fall back in June?
"Food prices have changed from a 0.3% increase last month to a decline of 1.7%, which affected the CPI drop by about 0.31 percentage points, mainly driven by the expansion of the decline in pork prices." said Dong Lijuan, a senior statistician in the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics.
According to Dong Lijuan, the price of pork fell by 36.5% in food, an increase of 12.7 percentage points from the previous month, affecting CPI by about 0.80 percentage points; the price of freshwater fish rose by 33.5%, a decline of 0.2 percentage points; the price of eggs and edible vegetable oil rose respectively. 21.7% and 9.5%, the increase has both expanded.
"According to estimates, of the 1.1% year-on-year increase in June, the carryover impact of last year's price changes was about 0.8 percentage points, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; the impact of the new price increase was about 0.3 percentage points, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. Percentage points.” Dong Lijuan pointed out that the core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose 0.9% year-on-year, the same rate as last month.
The picture shows a supermarket in Xicheng District, Beijing.
Photo by Xie Yiguan, a reporter from China News Service
Meat, vegetables and fruits have dropped, and food prices have dropped from a month earlier
From a month-on-month perspective, the CPI fell by 0.4% in June, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.
Among them, food prices fell by 2.2%, and the rate of decline expanded by 0.5%, affecting the CPI drop by about 0.40%.
The main reason is that the prices of the main "vegetable basket" products have fallen.
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in food, the price of pork continued to drop by 13.6% month-on-month due to the continuous recovery of live pig production capacity, the concentrated production of pigs for slaughter and the seasonally weak consumer demand. Decrease by 2.3% and 4.5%.
A reporter from Chinanews.com recently visited supermarkets and vegetable markets in Beijing and found that the price of pork has dropped significantly, with pork prices falling below 10 yuan a catty in some places.
In a supermarket in Fengtai District, Beijing, the price of pork in different parts has fallen sharply.
The current price of domestically made pork belly is 15.88 yuan per catty, the domestically made fresh front leg is 9.88 yuan per catty, and the broth bone is 10.88 yuan per catty.
According to monitoring by the Ministry of Commerce, from June 21 to 27, the wholesale price of pork in the national edible agricultural product market was 19.53 yuan per kilogram, which means that the wholesale price of pork has fallen below 10 yuan per kilogram.
Data map: Pork sold in a supermarket in Fengtai District, Beijing.
Photo by Xie Yiguan, a reporter from China News Service
The prices of some fresh vegetables and fruits have also fallen sharply.
On the e-commerce platform, the reporter noticed that cucumbers, eggplants, peppers, carrots, etc. sell for more than two yuan per catty, and green onions, zucchini, potatoes, and purple onions are even less than two yuan per catty.
With the large-scale launch of seasonal fruits, the prices of litchi, watermelon and other fruits have also fallen.
The annual average increase in CPI is expected to be less than 2%
According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Commerce, from June 28 to July 4, the national market price of edible agricultural products rose 0.9% from the previous week.
Among them, the price of meat increased overall. The wholesale price of pork was 21.21 yuan per kilogram, an increase of 8.6%; the average wholesale price of 30 kinds of vegetables decreased by 1.4% from the previous week; the average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits increased slightly; the price of poultry products decreased slightly; Product prices have dropped slightly.
"The CPI carry-over factor in the third quarter has dropped significantly, coupled with the low price of pork, the upward momentum of CPI will weaken. Taking into account the gradual increase in non-food prices, the CPI may remain at about 2%, and the price increase will be more moderate." Bank of Communications Finance According to Liu Xuezhi, a senior macro analyst at the Research Center.
"With sufficient supply, the prices of pork and other foods are falling." Cao Heping, a professor at the School of Economics at Peking University, told a reporter from Chinanews.com that at present, the CPI in the third quarter will still be affected by the increase in global commodity prices, which will push up the prices of some consumer products. The year-on-year increase in CPI in the third quarter is expected to be around 1.9%-2.0%.
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On June 10, the Governor of the People’s Bank of China, Yi Gang, stated at the 13th Lujiazui Forum that the recent global crude oil and other commodities prices have risen rapidly. The short-term rise in global inflation has become a reality, but whether inflation can be sustained in the long-term, There are huge differences.
However, Yi Gang also said, "my country will adhere to the normal monetary policy during the 2020 epidemic, and domestic total demand will be relatively stable, which is conducive to maintaining the overall stability of prices. Judging by various factors, this year's CPI trend is low and then high, and the annual CPI is average. The increase is expected to be less than 2%." (End)