Why the growth rate of real estate loans hit an 8-year low
Our reporter Guo Ziyuan
A few days ago, personal mortgage loan lines in many places are "tight", and some home buyers report that they need to wait in line to make loans.
At the same time, the latest regulatory data show that the growth rate of real estate loans in my country has continued to decline, hitting a record low in eight years. Since 2021, the growth rate of real estate loans has continued to be lower than that of various loans.
What is the reason for the high growth rate of real estate loans?
Why has the growth rate of real estate loans slowed?
What is the trend of real estate loans next?
Many industry insiders told the Economic Daily reporter that since the regulatory authorities have started "real estate loan concentration management", the growth rate of real estate loans will not grow at a high speed in the future, but there are still two issues that need to be paid attention to.
On the one hand, real estate loans should not be overly "demonized", nor can a "one size fits all" model be adopted. Instead, a reasonable growth rate of real estate loans should be taken to promote national economic growth and meet the rigid and improved needs of home buyers; on the other hand, On the one hand, it is necessary to pay close attention to the risks caused by the "excessive" growth of real estate loans, and resolutely curb illegal businesses, such as illegal entry of "business loans" into the property market, to prevent a resurgence of chaos.
Five continuous declines
After continuous rectification, the problem of excessive inflow of funds into the real estate market has been initially reversed.
At present, my country's real estate financing shows the characteristics of "five continuous declines".
First, the growth rate of real estate loans continued to decline.
Regulatory data shows that as of the end of April 2021, real estate loans in the banking industry have increased by 10.5% year-on-year, the growth rate has hit a record low in eight years, and has continued to be lower than the growth rate of various loans since 2021.
Second, the concentration of real estate loans continued to decline.
The proportion of real estate loans in various loans fell by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, which has fallen for 7 consecutive months.
Third, the scale of real estate trusts continued to decline.
The balance of real estate trusts fell by approximately 13.6% from the same period last year, and has continued to decline since June 2019.
Fourth, the scale of investment of wealth management products in non-standard real estate assets continued to decline.
The balance of related wealth management products fell by 36% year-on-year, and has maintained a downward trend in the past year.
Fifth, the scale of funds invested by banks in the real estate sector through special purpose vehicles has continued to decline.
The scale of related businesses dropped by 26% year-on-year, which was the 15th consecutive month of decline.
Behind the "five continuous declines" is the result of the resolute implementation of the requirements of the real estate long-term mechanism in various places, and the result of the financial supervision department's curbing the momentum of real estate financialization and bubbles.
The first is to manage the financial gates of the banking industry.
As we all know, real estate loans consist of two parts, one is development loans for real estate companies, and the other is personal mortgage loans for home buyers.
Liang Tao, vice chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, said that the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the People's Bank of China have jointly issued the "Notice on Preventing the Illegal Flow of Loans for Business Purposes into the Real Estate Field" to curb the illegal flow of "business loans" into the real estate field.
The second is to implement policies based on the city and actively implement differentiated real estate credit policies.
Preliminary statistics show that since 2020, dispatched agencies of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission have cooperated with local governments to introduce more than 130 real estate control measures.
The last is to severely punish violations of laws and regulations.
"Recently, we have fined 5 banks 366 million yuan. The very important reason is that they illegally carried out real estate financing business." Liang Tao said that the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission has carried out "national real estate special inspections" for three consecutive years, and found violations. zero tolerance".
Rapid growth and many hidden dangers
"Cure the disease to get rid of the root." To continue to reduce the growth rate of real estate loans, we need to start with several reasons that have pushed up the growth rate of real estate loans.
Many people in the industry said that the reasons can be analyzed from both the demand side and the supply side.
What needs to be clear is that the main driving force for the rapid growth of real estate loans is personal mortgage loans. Due to the previous policy of reducing overcapacity and deleveraging, real estate development loans have a lesser effect.
In other words, the leverage is mainly added to the individual residents who buy houses.
"From the demand side, residents do have a need for credit to buy houses." Zeng Gang, deputy director of the National Finance and Development Laboratory and director of the Shanghai Finance and Development Laboratory, further said, but compared to the demand side, the rapid growth of real estate loans is the main driver The power is on the supply side.
That is to say, banks are vigorously expanding personal mortgage loans in consideration of credit structure adjustments.
Since 2012 and especially after 2017, many banks have struggled to quickly expand the scale of corporate loans in the short term.
In the context of de-capacity and deleveraging, the credit demand of some real companies is relatively weak, and some good companies have begun to "cat winter"; on the contrary, among the companies that are in urgent need of loans, some have previously blindly expanded. , Need to be eliminated and cleared, the credit risk is high, and banks are afraid to lend.
It is difficult to make corporate loans, and retail loans have become the key development direction of banks, among which personal mortgage loans are the main force.
Compared with personal consumer loans, which are also retail loans, personal mortgage loans have three major advantages: large scale, long term, and low risk.
Due to its large scale, it can become a bank's profit stabilizer and market expansion grasper; due to its long term, it can bring higher comprehensive returns to the bank, promote the long-term credit relationship between the bank and its customers, and create conditions for subsequent expansion of other businesses ; Because real estate is used as collateral, compared with credit loans, its risk is lower, which reduces the worries of the bank.
It is precisely under the comprehensive promotion of the above demand side and supply side that real estate loans have experienced rapid growth. Although the rigid needs and improvement needs of residents have been met in the short term, many hidden risks have been planted in the long run.
What's the future trend
It is imperative to curb the financial tendency of real estate bubbles and prevent and defuse risks in key areas.
"The risks are mainly reflected in three aspects." Zeng Gang said. First, the high growth of real estate loans has led to a large amount of funds entering the real estate field, squeezing and adsorbing funds that originally belonged to other entities, which is detrimental to the overall economic development.
Second, although real estate is used as collateral, personal mortgage loans seem to be of low risk. However, if real estate prices rise too fast and generate huge bubbles, once the bubble bursts and real estate prices fall sharply, this will trigger serious systemic financial risks.
Third, excessive leverage on the residential sector and higher leverage ratio of the residential sector will increase the debt burden of residents and increase debt risk. On the other hand, it will weaken residents’ personal consumption expenditures, curb consumer demand, and be detrimental to the economic structure. Adjustment.
How to balance the relationship between housing demand and the growth rate of real estate loans?
"It is necessary to provide differentiated support for the rigid needs groups in terms of loan down payment ratio and interest rate, increase financial support for the housing leasing market, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market." The relevant person in charge of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission said that as of the end of April 2021, Among the personal mortgage loans issued by the industry, first homes accounted for 91.8%, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%; loans to the housing leasing market increased by 31% year-on-year.
"In the next step, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission will continue to implement the long-term real estate regulation and control mechanism of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, adhere to the positioning of'houses are for living, not for speculation', and to maintain the continuity and stability of real estate financial regulatory policies. Avoid big fluctuations in housing prices and promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market." Liang Tao said.
At the same time, maintain a high pressure on illegal businesses, prevent and resolve real estate business risks; continue to support the development of the housing leasing market, and provide more targeted financial services; strengthen the coordination of work with relevant departments to form a mechanism that promotes the steady and healthy development of the real estate market Work together to achieve the policy goal of "stabilizing land prices, stabilizing housing prices, and stabilizing expectations".