China News Agency, Beijing, July 5 (Reporter Wang Enbo) The Bank of China Research Institute released the "Economic and Financial Outlook Report for the Third Quarter of 2021" in Beijing on the 5th, stating that China's GDP in the third quarter of this year is expected to grow by about 6.3%, and the annual GDP growth is 8.8. %, the role of domestic demand in supporting China's economy will further increase.

  The report pointed out that in the first half of the year, local repeated domestic epidemics had a certain impact on China's economic recovery, but China has steadily promoted the overall planning of epidemic prevention and control and stabilized economic growth, accelerated vaccination, maintained continuity and stability in macroeconomic policies, and partially reduced burdens and stabilized jobs. The employment expansion policy period was extended to the end of the year, the economy continued to maintain a stable recovery trend, and the job market was generally stable.

  Looking forward to the second half of the year, the Bank of China research team believes that changes in the external environment are the biggest variable affecting China’s economy. The unsynchronized global epidemic prevention and control, imbalanced economic recovery, intensified political and economic games, and expected warming of the Fed’s monetary policy have all increased external problems. Certainty.

But at the same time, China's consumption and investment growth continues to improve, and the supporting role of domestic demand will further increase.

  The report stated that there are multiple supports for China's consumption to maintain its recovery trend in the second half of the year.

As the economy as a whole maintains a recovery trend, and at the same time, the period of the policy of partially reducing burdens and stabilizing jobs and expanding employment is extended to the end of 2021, future employment and income are expected to continue to improve as the economy recovers.

Since the first half of the year, a series of policies to promote consumption and stabilize prices have continued to show their effects, which is also conducive to the expansion of consumption.

  The further expansion of the scope of vaccination has also created conditions for the recovery of consumption in China.

On the one hand, the further popularization of vaccines will continue to reduce the impact of the epidemic on service consumption and offline consumption; on the other hand, residents' confidence in economic recovery and travel safety will also increase as a result, which will help increase consumer willingness.

Overall, China's consumption in the third quarter is expected to grow by about 9.5% year-on-year, and the annual consumption growth is about 14.6%.

  The report also analyzes that, benefiting from factors such as the continuous improvement of corporate profits and the opening of the inventory cycle, Chinese manufacturing companies have a strong willingness to invest.

In addition, the financial support for the manufacturing industry is still relatively large, and the medium and long-term loans of enterprises have grown rapidly. It is expected that manufacturing investment in the second half of the year will become the main driving force for the growth of China's fixed asset investment.

  At the macro policy level, the report predicts that the government will maintain policy continuity and stability, and finance is expected to accelerate the implementation of major construction projects during the 14th Five-Year Plan period and implement a normalized direct fiscal fund mechanism.

Monetary policy is expected to continue to adhere to "self-oriented", but we need to be alert to the transfer effect brought by external input risks.

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