The number of new retirees in the "14th Five-Year Plan" will exceed 40 million, and a number of policy tools are to be used
The retirement peak during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period has posed new challenges to the sustainable development of my country's social security system.
The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security has drawn up a roadmap for social security reform to deal with aging. In the next five years, my country will successively introduce important measures including delaying retirement, increasing the minimum pension payment period, and participating in insurance for flexible employees.
Recently, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security issued the "Fourteenth Five-Year Plan for the Development of Human Resources and Social Security" (hereinafter referred to as the "Plan"), which is the details of my country's "14th Five-Year Plan" and the 2035 long-term goal outline in the field of social security.化.
The plan clearly states that the aging of the population will continue to deepen. During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the number of new retirees will exceed 40 million, and the working-age population will decrease by 35 million. The sustainable development of the social security system is facing challenges.
This means that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, my country will increase an average of 8 million retirees each year, far more than the 4.52 million newly added in 2020.
Zhang Yi, a researcher at the School of Public Economics and Management of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, told Yicai.com reporters that aging is a "gray rhino" and its influence is gradually increasing. Don't ignore the long-term risks of aging, but don't panic.
Our country has not yet opened the toolbox for truly responding to the aging of the population. In the future, some sharp tools to alleviate the impact of aging, such as delaying the retirement age and increasing the payment period, can effectively alleviate the impact of aging after the appropriate policy window is put into use.
Since the beginning of this year, the social security issue of flexible employees has received great attention from the central government.
The plan also proposes to actively promote the willingness and the ability to pay for flexible employment and new employment forms to participate in the basic endowment insurance for enterprise employees.
Two-pronged approach to postpone retirement and increase the payment period
The plan is an important guiding document for the development of human resources and social security undertakings in the next five years. It mainly clarifies the overall idea of promoting high-quality development of human resources and social security under the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, and clarifies the main development goals, major policy measures and key tasks. task.
Regarding the improvement of the social security system, the plan proposes to establish and implement a national overall plan for basic endowment insurance for enterprise employees on the basis of standardizing the provincial-level overall planning system and intensifying the central adjustment of funds, and appropriately strengthen the central government's power in pension insurance.
In addition, in accordance with the principles of small-step adjustment, flexible implementation, classified promotion, and overall planning, the gradual delay of the statutory retirement age will be steadily implemented, and the minimum payment period for receiving basic pensions will be gradually increased.
The "Third Pillar and Pension Research Report" released by Tsinghua University is calculated based on the seventh census data. According to the international standard that 14% of the population over the age of 65 enters a deeply aging society, it is expected that in 2021, the end of this year, my country will Entering a deeply aging society, this will be 4 years ahead of the 2025 estimated by the 2019 edition of the World Population Outlook.
In addition, the above-mentioned report of Tsinghua University pointed out that as the "1963 baby boom" (referring to the peak born in 1963) enters the retirement age, the support burden of the urban population in my country will drop from 2.37:1 in 2020 to 1.82:1 in 2025. .
Delayed retirement is already on the line.
The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on May 31. The meeting emphasized the need to implement the national strategy to actively respond to population aging, and accelerate the establishment and improvement of related policy systems and institutional frameworks.
The gradual delay of the statutory retirement age must be implemented steadily.
Zhang Yinghua, an executive researcher at the World Social Security Research Center of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told a reporter from China Business News that the aging of the population will inevitably lead to an increase in the basic old-age insurance support rate, and the pressure on the sustainability of the system will continue. We will accelerate the construction of a multi-level and multi-pillar pension insurance system, link the system's participation structure with the population structure, and establish a mechanism for linking retirement age to life expectancy. At this stage, we will gradually and steadily implement the extension of the legal retirement age.
Zhang Yi believes that it is very necessary to increase the flexibility of retirement, and to increase the incentives for continuing to work in the system design, and pay more for long-term payments. This will increase the endogenous motivation to postpone the retirement age, making the delay of retirement a matter of course.
Zhang Yinghua suggested that the supporting measures for postponing retirement should first be gradually promoted, leaving people close to retirement age with the choice of "retire early" or "retire late"; secondly, while protecting the labor rights and interests of retirees, explore flexibility Working hours, smooth docking and postponement.
Gradually increasing the minimum payment period for receiving basic pensions is another "weapon" to deal with the aging toolbox.
Zhang Yi believes that this reform is more important than delaying retirement, and its priority is higher than delaying retirement.
Now we must start to emphasize lifetime payment, otherwise the system will not be incentive.
"The difficulty of increasing the payment period is similar to raising the retirement age. For older workers with unstable employment, many social insurances are paid by themselves. Increasing the payment period will damage their interests. Therefore, we must also pay attention to the rhythm and gradually For example, it can increase by 0.5 years every year. Of course, the pace can and should be slightly faster than the retirement age." Zhang Yi said.
In addition, the plan also specifically puts forward the implementation of basic pension insurance for survivors and sickness and disability allowance policies.
CBN understands that the survivor’s treatment is mainly to prevent the worker from failing to receive the pension early, which will dampen the enthusiasm to participate in the insurance. At the same time, the pension can be regarded as a kind of deferred payment. Certain compensation or inheritance rights.
The implementation of this system is a further improvement of the current employee pension insurance system.
Social Security Reform for Flexible Employers Breaks the Ice
The number of flexible employees in our country has reached 200 million, accounting for about half of our urban employees.
This part of the population has the characteristics of de-institutionalization and non-labor relations, which poses great challenges to social insurance plans based on labor relations.
The plan proposes that my country's basic pension insurance participation rate should be increased from 91% in 2020 to 95% at the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan". To achieve this goal, it is essential to increase the insurance participation rate of flexible employees.
The plan proposes to fully implement the universal participation plan, promote the realization of the basic pension insurance for employees from full coverage of the system to full coverage of the legal group, liberalize the household registration restrictions for flexible employees to participate in social insurance in the place of employment, and actively promote the willing and able to pay Flexible employees and employees in new forms of employment participate in the basic endowment insurance for enterprise employees.
Zhang Yinghua believes that the current labor market structure has undergone great changes, and the scale of flexible employment has become larger and larger. Work flexibility and mobility have become common phenomena along with the separation of households. It is necessary to enhance the adaptability of the basic pension insurance system and make breakthroughs in flexible employment. The household registration restrictions on participation in insurance and benefits, combined with the characteristics of flexible employment and new forms of employment, improve the conditions of insurance and benefits, enhance the incentives and flexibility of insurance participation, innovate insurance participation and incentive mechanisms, and set the payment grades and government subsidies reasonably excitation.
As the threshold of the pension insurance system for urban employees is too high, it is not suitable for flexible employment. The academic circles also have opinions and suggestions that they can consider establishing a separate pension insurance system for these 200 million people.
Zhang Yinghua believes that it is not necessary and impossible to establish a system for them alone.
"The common practice in the local area is to provide pension payment subsidies to residents, or raise the minimum payment level, narrow the gap between residents and employees, set up a ladder between residents’ pension insurance and employee pension insurance, and guide flexible employees to be pensioned by residents. Insurance is gradually shifting to employee endowment insurance to enhance future endowment security." Zhang Yinghua said.
(Author: Guo Jinhui)