On Thursday, July 1, the Russian currency shows mixed dynamics on the Moscow Exchange.

At the opening of trading, the dollar rose by 0.1% - to 73.23 rubles, and the euro fell by 0.02% - to 86.73 rubles.

Note that in June, the national currency was able to appreciably rise in price.

So, in the first month of summer, the dollar rate dropped by 0.4% - to 73.14 rubles, and the euro rate - by 3.4%, to 86.75 rubles.

At the same time, in mid-June, the indicators briefly dropped to 71.55 and 85.75 rubles.

The last time similar values ​​could be observed back in the summer of 2020.

“The main factor behind the strengthening of the ruble in June was the reduction in geopolitical risks against the background of the recent negotiations between Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden.

Although it is premature to talk about a warming in relations between Russia and the United States, investors nevertheless took an optimistic view of the results of the meeting, in particular, due to the return of Russian and American diplomats to the embassies, "said Andrei Maslov, an analyst with Finam FG, in an interview with RT.

In addition, a record rise in oil prices had a positive impact on the dynamics of the ruble, the expert said.

So, at the end of June, the cost of raw materials of the Brent reference grade on the ICE exchange in London rose to $ 76.6 per barrel - the highest level in the last two and a half years.

However, after that the indicator slightly corrected and is now near $ 74-75.

In July, the change in oil prices will continue to be one of the determining factors for the national currency, Andrey Maslov is sure.

At the same time, as the expert emphasized, the price of energy resources will largely depend on the actions of the countries participating in the OPEC + deal.   

Recall that the OPEC + agreement includes 23 oil-producing countries, including Russia.

Under the agreement, the states temporarily restrict the production of raw materials to achieve a balance between supply and demand in the global hydrocarbon market.

Such a policy should keep energy prices from sharp fluctuations.

The next meeting of the alliance members is scheduled for July 1.

The parties are expected to agree on new parameters for oil production in the coming months.

“Based on the results of the upcoming meeting, the countries are able to agree on an increase in oil production by 0.5-1 million barrels per day, as they expect an increase in world demand for energy resources.

Of course, there is a risk that global consumption of raw materials will recover more slowly than expected due to the rapid spread of the Indian strain of the coronavirus.

However, according to our estimates, in July the price of Brent will remain in the range of $ 70-75 per barrel, ”Maslov added.

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In July, foreign exchange market players will closely monitor the situation with the COVID-19 pandemic.

Mikhail Shulgin, head of the global research department at Otkritie Broker, shared this opinion with RT.

According to the expert, the worsening epidemiological situation in a number of countries may negatively affect investor sentiment and lead to a weakening of emerging market currencies.

“Nevertheless, in our opinion, the ruble in this case will suffer less than other currencies.

The availability of its own vaccines, as well as active campaigning of the population in favor of vaccination, can form a competitive advantage for Russia, which is positively assessed by investors, ”explained Shulgin.

According to Andrey Maslov, the resumption of air traffic between Russia and a number of other countries may exert some pressure on the ruble.

As the specialist explained, in these conditions, the demand for foreign currency from tourists will grow.

However, the influence of this factor will be insignificant, the expert said.

Moreover, according to Maslov, towards the end of the month the tax period may play in favor of the ruble.

At this time, exporting companies traditionally sell foreign currency and buy rubles to pay taxes.

With an eye on the Central Bank

The next increase in the key rate by the Bank of Russia can provide significant support to the Russian currency.

This point of view in an interview with RT was expressed by Mikhail Zeltser, an expert on the stock market "BCS World of Investments".

Recall that since the beginning of 2021, the Central Bank, as part of the fight against inflation, has already raised the interest rate three times and raised it to 5.5% per annum.

The next meeting of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank is scheduled for July 23.

At the same time, the top management of the regulator may again consider the possibility of raising the rate.

“We will choose the scale and pace of the rate hike based on our assessment of the level of stable inflationary pressures, the timing of normalization of inflationary expectations, as well as forecasts of further dynamics of aggregate demand and supply,” said the Chairman of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina earlier.

According to analysts, the growth of the key rate in the future should lead to an inflow of investments into the federal loan bonds (OFZ) market.

At the same time, the active purchase of government securities by investors traditionally leads to a rise in the ruble price.

“As for the plans of the Central Bank of Russia to raise rates, there is a possibility that by the end of the year it will raise them by another 50 basis points, to 6%, trying to achieve a further rise in the ruble's price against the background of the expected rise in oil prices by the end of the year,” - said in research by the Danish investment bank Saxo Bank.

According to Mikhail Zeltser, in the next month the dollar rate may temporarily rise to the level of 74 rubles.

At the same time, according to Andrey Maslov, if the current conditions persist until the end of July, the indicator will fluctuate in the range of 71-75 rubles, and the euro exchange rate - in the corridor of 84-89 rubles.