The report of the second quarter monetary policy committee meeting of the central bank now has three major changes in expressions
Our reporter Liu Qi
Recently, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank held a regular meeting of the second quarter of this year. Compared with the regular meeting of the first quarter, there will be many changes in this regular meeting.
CITIC Securities chief FICC analyst clearly believes that overall, the current monetary policy stance is mainly stable.
The policy mix in the second half of the year will mainly rely on fiscal efforts to stabilize growth, and we need to pay attention to the speed of fiscal response to steady growth in the context of currency neutrality.
The domestic and international environment is still complicated and severe
Requires "prevention of external shocks"
Regarding the research and judgment of the economic situation, the regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee in the first quarter of this year stated that “the domestic economic development momentum has continued to increase, and positive factors have clearly increased, but the economic recovery process is still uneven, and the overseas epidemic situation and the world economy are improving, but the situation is still complicated and severe. "And the second quarter regular meeting pointed out that "At present, my country's economic operation is stably strengthened and stable while improving, but the domestic and international environment is still complicated and severe."
In the current context, the second quarter regular meeting in the first quarter regular meeting "must strengthen the research, judgment and analysis of the domestic and foreign economic situation, strengthen international macroeconomic policy coordination, concentrate on doing its own affairs well, do a good job in cross-cycle policy design, and support the economic development. On the basis of the expression of "quality development", "prevention of external shocks" has been added.
China Merchants Securities Research Report believes that from the perspective of "risk prevention" emphasized at this meeting, monetary policy will continue to be "stabilized" in the short term.
At the 13th Lujiazui Forum held this month, the governor of the People's Bank of China Yi Gang reiterated the four-character principle of "stability and stability".
However, unlike the principle in the first half of the year, which emphasized maintaining the stability of monetary policy and consolidating the economic growth situation, the word "stable" in the second half of the year increased the policy meaning of "preventing risks".
In the face of multiple constraints such as external variables, financial risks, and economic growth that may appear in the second half of the year, adhering to the "stability of the word" will still be the optimal solution for monetary policy to deal with complex situations.
Maintain overall economic stability
Enhance economic development resilience
Regarding the main tone of monetary policy, the regular meeting of the second quarter will be held in the first quarter. "A sound monetary policy should be flexible, precise, reasonable and appropriate, grasp the timeliness and effectiveness of the policy, maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, and maintain the money supply and the scale of social financing. In addition to the expression basis of “maintaining the overall stability of the overall economic situation and enhancing the resilience of economic development”, in addition to the expression basis of “maintaining the overall stability of the overall economic situation”.
Obviously told the "Securities Daily" reporter that, combined with the requirements of "seeking progress while maintaining stability" and "being a stable word", it shows that the current monetary policy stance is still based on stability.
Under the circumstances that the overall economic situation is stable and stable, it is still the key to promote high-quality economic development through policies. This may require monetary policy to remain robust in terms of total volume, and to further increase the structural emphasis on technological innovation, small and micro enterprises. Support in fields such as enterprises and green development.
The Industrial Securities Research Report believes that the description of monetary policy emphasizes "maintaining overall economic stability and enhancing economic development resilience", and further emphasizes serving the real economy.
Monetary policy has shown an attitude of helping the economy to stabilize. It is expected that monetary policy will be pre-adjusted and fine-tuned to cope with downward pressure on the economy.
Adjust deposit interest rate
How to determine the upper limit of self-discipline
On June 21 this year, the market interest rate pricing self-regulatory mechanism optimized the method for determining the self-regulatory upper limit of deposit interest rates. The self-regulatory upper limit of deposit interest rates, which was originally formed by a certain multiple of the deposit benchmark interest rate, was changed to be determined by adding a certain basis point to the deposit benchmark interest rate.
This was also mentioned in the second quarter regular meeting. On the basis of the first quarter regular meeting "optimizing deposit interest rate supervision", the expression "adjusting the method of determining the self-regulatory upper limit of deposit interest rates" was added.
At the same time, it is emphasized once again that "continue to unleash the potential of interest rate reform on loan market quotes and promote further reductions in actual loan interest rates."
China Merchants Securities Research Report believes that this new statement reflects the central bank's intention to strengthen the management of the interest rate self-discipline mechanism to guide the actual loan interest rate to further reduce on the basis of retaining the "ballast stone" of deposit interest rates.
"Currently, the loss of enterprises continues to shrink. At the end of May, the loss of industrial enterprises above designated size was 22.6%, a decrease of 3.2 percentage points year-on-year and 1.2 percentage points from the end of April. However, small and medium-sized enterprises still need to be repaired, and the current employment and income pressure still exists. "Kang Chongli, head of the Yuekai Securities Research Institute, told the "Securities Daily" reporter that the promotion of interest rate marketization and the reduction of actual loan interest rates will help further promote the development of small and medium-sized enterprises and ease employment and income pressure.
(Securities Daily)