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The ninth increase in domestic oil prices is likely to come, fill a tank or spend 10 yuan more

  Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client, June 28 (Xiong Jiali) Today (28th) at 24:00, the window for the twelfth round of domestic refined oil price adjustments in 2021 will be opened.

Based on the forecasts of many institutions, this round of domestic refined oil prices will likely rise, which may be the ninth increase this year.

  Gas station data map.

Photo by Zhang Meng, China-Singapore Jingwei

  Since June, international oil prices have continued to rise.

As of the early morning close on June 26, Beijing time, the closing price of WTI crude oil futures for delivery in August was US$74.05 per barrel, and the closing price of London Brent crude oil futures for delivery in September was US$75.38 per barrel, both hitting a record since October 2018. The highest closing price.

This is also the fifth consecutive week that international crude oil prices have risen.

  Zhuo Chuang Information analyst Wang Luqing said that since this pricing cycle, the US crude oil has not encountered obvious resistance at the $70/barrel mark, and the longs have won the victory under the interweaving of longs and shorts.

The core benefit of breaking through the key resistance level comes from the rapid recovery of demand. Affected by the strong trend of crude oil, the domestic reference crude oil change rate continues to rise.

  Longzhong Information analyst Li Yan analyzed that rising oil prices have prompted some U.S. energy companies to return to well sites; global vaccination is advancing rapidly, and the market expects demand to rebound in the second half of the year; OPEC+ sources said that OPEC+ is discussing further progress from August Possibility to increase production, but no decision has been made on production.

It is expected that domestic refined oil products will usher in the ninth increase this year, and it will also be the second "two consecutive increases" during the year.

  Regarding the adjustment range, Longzhong Information estimates that gasoline and diesel will increase by about 230 yuan/ton, which is equivalent to 0.17 yuan to 0.20 yuan per liter.

That is: filling a box of 50L of 92# gasoline will cost about 8.5 yuan -10 yuan more.

  According to statistics from the Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client, since 2021, domestic refined oil prices have been adjusted for eleven rounds, with a total increase of 1,180 yuan/ton for gasoline and 1,140 yuan/ton for diesel.

If this price increase is implemented, the price adjustment of refined oil products in 2021 will show a pattern of "nine ups, one down and two strands".

  In accordance with the "ten working days" principle, the next round of price adjustment window will be opened at 24:00 on July 12, 2021.

Li Yan believes that the economic and demand performance continues to improve, and the probability of the next round of refined oil price adjustments is expected to increase.

  Regarding the market outlook, Zhu Guangming, an analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information, said that in the second half of the year, oil prices are likely to rise but never fall.

The rising market continues, and there is no sign of reversal for the time being.

Zhongyu Information analyst Meng Xiao also believes that it is difficult for the market to find significant negative factors. At the same time, the current US crude oil inventories have entered the seasonal destocking time point. In the case of relatively optimistic markets, future crude oil prices cannot be ruled out. The possibility of continuing to be strong.

  Jinlianchuang analyst Ma Jiancai said that OPEC+'s crude oil production policy will continue to influence market sentiment.

Although the news is positive, the domestic automobile and diesel wholesale market lacks momentum. After the current round of retail oil price increases are implemented, the wholesale price increase will be limited, and the wholesale price difference will be moderately widened.

(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

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