Chinanews client, Beijing, June 16 (Reporter Li Jinlei) What is the impact of the implementation of the three-child policy?

Will the rise in bulk commodities cause prices to continue to rise?

Will pork prices continue to fall?

What is the future employment situation?

  On June 16, the National Bureau of Statistics released China’s economic data for May. Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, responded to a series of hot issues of public concern.

On June 16, the State Council Information Office held a press conference.

Photo by Chinanews reporter Li Jinlei

The three-child policy helps alleviate the decline in fertility

  According to reports, the data from the seventh national census indicate that there have been some new changes in the population of our country.

  First, the aging of the population is increasing.

In 2020, the proportion of the population aged 60 and above in the national population is 18.7%, and the proportion of the population aged 65 and above is 13.5%, which are 5.44 and 4.63 percentage points higher than the results of the sixth national census.

Second, the level of fertility is decreasing.

In 2020, the total fertility rate of women of childbearing age in my country is 1.3, which is at a relatively low level.

  "Population aging is the general trend of the world's population development, and it is also the basic national condition for a long time in the future." Fu Linghui said that implementing the policy that a couple can have three children will help alleviate the decline in fertility in the long run. Improve the age structure of the population and promote the long-term balanced development of the population.

The ex-factory prices of industrial producers have risen and fallen.

From the National Bureau of Statistics

Rising commodities have limited transmission to CPI

  According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the CPI rose by 1.3% in May, an increase of 0.4% over the previous month; the prices of international crude oil, iron ore, non-ferrous metals and other commodities rose sharply, and the national factory prices for industrial producers rose by 9.0% year-on-year, a record high. A new high in the past 13 years.

This has also caused everyone's concern about the transmission of PPI gains to CPI.

  Fu Linghui believes that, on the whole, the domestic industrial product market is relatively competitive, and the transmission of price increases to the CPI is limited. It is more fundamental and conditional for prices to remain basically stable throughout the year.

  Fu Linghui believes that from the perspective of supply and demand, my country's economy as a whole is still recovering, and the main demand indicators have not yet returned to the levels before the epidemic.

From the perspective of the supply side, production and supply maintained rapid growth.

Therefore, the fundamentals of supply and demand do not support substantial price increases.

  "Of course, we must also see that the recent increase in international commodity prices has brought about a significant increase in PPI growth. The rapid increase in the prices of some raw materials must also be paid attention to. It is necessary to strengthen market regulation, ease cost pressures on enterprises, and promote economic stability. Healthy development." Fu Linghui said.

  The reporter noticed that the State Bureau of Grain and Material Reserves issued an announcement on the 16th stating that national reserves such as copper, aluminum, and zinc will be released in batches in the near future.

The launch is for non-ferrous metal processing and manufacturing enterprises, and an open bid is implemented.

The picture shows consumers buying pork.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Zhang Yun

Pork prices become a CPI pull-down factor

  Recently, due to the combined effects of large-weight live pigs for slaughter, increase in imported frozen pork and weak seasonal demand, the price of live pigs has continued to fall.

  Fu Linghui pointed out that the production capacity of live pigs has a relatively large impact on prices in the early stage, and the production capacity of live pigs continues to recover.

Pork prices in May fell by 23.8% year-on-year, which is a pull-down factor for CPI.

  According to the monitoring of the National Development and Reform Commission, from June 7th to 11th, the national average pig-to-food price ratio was 5.88:1, which entered the three-level warning of excessive decline set by the "Improving the Government Pork Reserve Regulation Mechanism and Doing a Good Job in the Work Plan for Maintaining Supply and Stabilizing Prices in the Pork Market" Interval.

  On June 16, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a three-level early warning of excessive fall in live pig prices, reminding farms (households) to scientifically arrange production and operation decisions to maintain pig production capacity at a reasonable level.

  "Raising a pig from earning 3,000 yuan to losing 1,000 yuan" has also recently appeared on the hot search.

Centaline Securities believes that under the trend of declining pig prices, pig farmers have increased their slaughter volume, the supply side has increased, and slaughter companies have a strong willingness to keep prices down, which has led to an accelerated decline in pig prices.

However, affected by the increase in feed costs, pig prices in some areas have fallen to the cost line of self-breeding and self-raising households, and households purchasing piglet fattening have also entered a state of loss.

Information map of a large-scale job fair held in Taiyuan, Shanxi.

Photo by Wu Junjie

Employment improves, and total pressure still exists

  Employment is the foundation of people's livelihood. Statistics show that from January to May, 5.74 million new jobs were created in cities and towns across the country, completing 52.2% of the annual target.

In May, the nationwide surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas was 5.0%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from April and a decrease of 0.9 percentage point from the same period last year.

  Fu Linghui pointed out that the unemployment rate among the main employment groups was 4.4% for 25-59 year-olds, a decrease of 0.2% from the previous month. The overall employment situation is improving.

  He analyzed that there are several reasons for the improvement in employment. One is the economic recovery and the demand for employment is increasing.

The second is the accelerated recovery of the service industry. In May, the national service industry production index increased by an average of 6.6% in two years, 0.4 percentage points faster than in April.

The employment capacity of the service industry is relatively large, which is conducive to the increase of employment.

Third, benefiting from the employment priority policy, the government has issued a series of policies to assist enterprises and stabilize jobs. In particular, policies such as entrepreneurship to promote employment and support for flexible employment have played an important role in stabilizing employment.

  "But we must also see that the employment situation is indeed under pressure." Fu Linghui said, the main manifestation is that this year there will be more than 14 million new labor force in urban areas, of which 9.09 million college graduates, the total pressure still exists. .

At the same time, in terms of structure, the difficulty in finding employment for college students and the difficulty in recruiting enterprises coexist.

In addition, the recovery of some contact-type service industries is still relatively slow, which may also have some adverse effects on employment.

  Fu Linghui said that in the next stage, we must maintain the necessary support for economic recovery and promote the increase of jobs.

At the same time, it is necessary to implement the employment priority policy, support the expansion of employment of key groups, and promote the overall stability of the employment situation.