Rising knowledge丨What does it mean that the price of pig food has entered the "three-level warning of excessive decline"?
The Paper Journalist Sun Yizhen
On June 16, according to the monitoring of the National Development and Reform Commission, the national average pig-to-food ratio was 5.88:1 from June 7 to 11. (Hereinafter referred to as the "preplan") set a three-level warning range for excessive decline (below 6:1).
The National Development and Reform Commission recommends that farms (households) scientifically arrange production and operation decisions to maintain pig production capacity at a reasonable level.
This is the first time that the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission has released the national average pig food price comparison data after the implementation of the new "preplan".
The Paper reporter noted that in the new "plan", there are three levels of early warning of excessive decline.
At present, the price of pig food has entered a three-level early warning of excessive decline, which is the lowest level of the three-level early warning.
The purpose of issuing early warnings is to guide farmers to reduce hurdles steadily and orderly and avoid panic and concentrated hurdles.
Specifically, when the pig-to-food ratio is lower than 6:1, the National Development and Reform Commission will issue a three-level warning; when the pig-to-food ratio is at 5:1 to 6:1 for 3 consecutive weeks, or the stock of sows can be reproduced for a single month When the year-on-year decrease reaches 5%, or the number of reproductive sows has decreased by 5%-10% for three consecutive months, a secondary warning will be issued; when the price of pigs and food is lower than 5:1, the number of reproductive sows may be listed. When the month-on-year decline reaches 10%, or the number of reproductive sows has dropped by more than 10% for three consecutive months, a first-level warning will be issued.
The pig food price ratio is based on the ratio of the weekly live pig price monitored by the National Development and Reform Commission to the average wholesale price of second-class corn in major wholesale markets across the country. According to the production cost data in recent years, the pig food price ratio corresponding to the break-even point of pig production is about 7 :1.
According to the official website of the National Development and Reform Commission, the price of live pigs has continued to fall due to the combined effects of factors such as the concentrated production of large-weight live pigs, the increase in imported frozen pork, and the weak seasonal demand.
The National Development and Reform Commission will closely monitor live pig production and market price trends with relevant departments, earnestly organize and implement the "Preplan", carry out reserve adjustments in a timely manner, and promote the smooth operation of the live pig market.
On June 9th, multiple departments jointly issued the "Improving the Government Pork Reserve Regulation Mechanism and Doing a Good Work Plan for the Pork Market to Guarantee Supply and Stabilize Prices" (hereinafter referred to as the "Plan"), requiring reasonable smoothing of "pig cycle" fluctuations and effective control of abnormal market impacts. Promote the sustainable and healthy development of the pig industry.
This is the fourth adjustment of my country's pork price plan since 2009.
Compared with the 2015 plan, this “plan” has revised and improved the core content of early warning indicators and intervals, reserve classification and scale, and reserve adjustment mechanism.
In terms of indicators, in addition to the selection of "Pig and Food Price Comparison", this "Preplan" for the first time included the "Change Rate of Reproductive Sow Stock" and "Average Retail Price of Lean Meat in 36 Large and Medium Cities" into the early warning indicator system.