Regarding the world economy that was hit by the new coronavirus, the IMF = International Monetary Fund said that although it is on a recovery trend as a whole, there is a "dangerous disparity" because it varies from country to country depending on the spread of vaccines. The alarm bell is ringing.

The IMF expects the global economy to grow by 6%, turning from last year's decline in negative growth as economic activity resumes.



However, it is said that there are variations in each country depending on the spread of vaccines and the scale of fiscal spending to rebuild the economy, and the per capita income by 2024 is more advanced than the forecast before the spread of infection. It is estimated that while the country loses 2.3% a year, developing countries lose 5.7% a year.



The IMF describes this situation as a "dangerous inequality" and recommends that countries work together to vaccinate at least 40% of the world's population, 60% in the first half of next year. I will.



"Recovery inequality is a very serious problem," said IMF Director General Gita Gopinato in an interview with NHK. "If the delay in recovery in some countries leads to increased social tensions, it will become a global problem. Even in countries where economic activities are normalizing, there is a risk of the spread of mutant viruses, and each country must work together. "

US economic recovery accelerates prices rise record

The United States is accelerating the economic recovery.



The IMF forecasts that this year's economic growth rate will be + 6.4%, a V-shaped recovery from last year's negative growth.



The crowds have returned to tourist destinations around the world, and the streets of the western drama remain, and the stockyard district of southern Texas, also known as the "sanctuary of cowboys," is crowded with tourists to see the parade. I was enjoying.



The Southern restaurant in the area was closed for half a year due to the new coronavirus, but now the monthly sales have returned to about 70% of what it was before the outbreak, so owner Grady. Mr. Spears said, "I expect it to be completely restored before the summer," and felt the response to the recovery.



In the United States, overseas travelers remain significantly reduced, but a May survey by the American Travel Association found that nearly 90% of people plan their trips within six months. The reaction to personal consumption, the so-called "revenge consumption," which has been refrained from due to the corona disaster, is concentrated in Japan.



A man with a family said, "I don't think traveling abroad is safe yet. If possible, I'll go out in various ways within a driving distance."



Vaccines are driving the US economic recovery, with at least one vaccination at 51.9% as of the 13th of this month.

Record rise in prices

A record rise in prices stands out as the economy recovers rapidly.



Consumer prices in the United States have risen 4.2% in April and 5.0% in May, the highest levels in about 12 years, compared to the same period of the previous year.

Supermarkets in the suburbs of the capital, Washington, are raising prices for foods such as coffee and chocolate, as well as baby diapers, and the average price for all products is more than 6% higher than it was a year ago.



The customer woman said, "Every time I come to the store, I feel that something is getting higher."



The store's owner, Nolan Rodman, said, "Purchasing prices for everything are rising. I've been working in retail for 15 years, and it's the first time I've raised prices so rapidly in every field." It was.



Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, the central bank of the United States, acknowledged that the current rise in prices is a temporary phenomenon associated with the rapid recovery of the economy. Price changes are a big focus.

Some countries, such as Southeast Asia, have not been able to recover their economies.

On the other hand, in some emerging countries such as Southeast Asia, the economic recovery has not progressed due to the re-expansion of infection and the delay in vaccination, and the impact on employment and livelihoods is widening.



Thailand's economic growth rate dropped sharply to minus 6.1% last year.



Since March, the infection has spread again, and more than 2,000 infected people have been confirmed per day, and the percentage of people who have been vaccinated at least once is only 6.4% as of the 13th of this month. I will.



Full-scale acceptance of foreign tourists has not resumed, and the tourism industry, which is a major industry, has been seriously hit.



Amid the delay in economic recovery, the Thai government is engaged in a mobile sales business that puts daily necessities such as rice, eggs, and vegetables in a car and sells them to residents at a bargain price.



With the support of the government, the price is up to 60% cheaper than the general price, so more than 700 cars are on sale while moving between the capital Bangkok and the surrounding municipalities.



For sale in Nonthaburi Province, which is adjacent to Bangkok, more than 10 people lined up to buy eggs and oil one after another.



The government estimates that people's living expenses have been reduced by more than 800 million yen in the month leading up to the beginning of this month.



A woman who hasn't had a job since April said, "If you buy it normally, you can buy a high-priced item at a very low price. You can live for a week with this egg." "Thailand's economy is so bad that it's just widening the gap with America and China. I feel like this bad situation will continue until next year," he said.



The central bank of Thailand expected this year's economic growth rate to be + 3%, but last month it revised downward to stay at + 1% if vaccines were not secured, and vaccines were secured. It has become a big issue.

IMF Research Director "Dangerous Gap in Recovery Level"

In an interview with NHK, IMF Director General Gita Gopinato said that the world economy is recovering with the United States and China strongly leading, but "while some countries are recovering very quickly, recovery is recovering. Many countries are slow. There is a'dangerous gap'in the level of recovery. "



Mr. Gopinato pointed out the difference in the spread of vaccines and the difference in the scale of financial support in each country as the background of the disparity. As mentioned above, it will take time to recover. ”He expressed concern about the delay in recovery in countries in Southeast Asia, which are highly dependent on the tourism industry.



In the United States, where economic recovery is accelerating, the focus is on the time when the central bank, the Federal Reserve Board, will reduce the quantitative easing that it has continued to support the economy, and it will open before dawn on the 17th of Japan time. Market interest is focused on what kind of message will be sent at this monetary policy meeting.



“The future of the economy depends on how carefully the Fed reviews its monetary policy, which is very difficult now,” said Gopinato, on the impact of the Fed's move to a major monetary easing shift. In an uncertain era, if interest rates rise sharply, emerging and developing countries may face risks, "he said. If the Fed hastened a shift in monetary policy, the global economy He acknowledged that it could be a cause for concern.